Our in-form EFL expert Nick Hext is backing Reading to get the better of Huddersfield in Monday's Sky Bet Championship play-off final.
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Huddersfield v Reading (1500 BST, Sky Sports 1)
There shouldn’t be too much surprise from regular readers of my tips this season that I’m keeping faith in Reading at inviting odds for the Sky Bet Championship play-off final against Huddersfield on Monday afternoon.
The Royals have been priced up as underdogs at over 2/1 across the board to get the better of the Terriers without needing extra time or penalties and that interests me with not much between the sides.
Reading were the huge outsiders to get through against Fulham in their semi-final but Jaap Stam tactically outmanoeuvred Slavisa Jokanovic to get the Royals to Wembley.
Huddersfield boss David Wagner performed a similar trick to dispose of Carlos Carvalhal’s Sheffield Wednesday but I don’t think Stam has received the same level of praise as the Terriers chief this season.
That doesn’t take anything away from the quality of work that has been produced by Wagner and I fully expect both men to be linked with other managerial jobs during the summer, no matter what the result is of this match.
Both games between these teams during the regular season finished in 1-0 wins to the hosts, Reading claiming victory at the Madejski Stadium in September and Huddersfield picking up three points at the John Smith’s Stadium in February.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this contest also finished with just one goal, although be wary of extra chances created in the final stages if one side is chasing the match.
I’ve backed Reading throughout this campaign at odds I consider too big and it’s led to consistent profits. There’s no logic in deviating from my regular approach in supporting the Royals but there are other ways to find value at Wembley.
There wasn’t a goal in the first half of any of the four play-off semi-final matches in the Championship and I fully expect another quiet opening to this contest.
There’s more than 6/4 available for a goalless first half and that’s well worth an interest.
The League One play-off final last weekend between two similarly well-matched sides in Bradford and Millwall was goalless at half time and I expect this match to follow a similar pattern.
February’s meeting between Huddersfield and Reading was only decided by an 82nd-minute goal and everything points to a cagey opening once again, especially with so much at stake.
Prediction: Huddersfield 0-1 Reading
Opta facts:
This will be the sixth meeting in all competitions between these sides since David Wagner took charge of Huddersfield in November 2015 – in the previous five both sides have claimed two victories each and shared a draw.
Reading are looking to secure promotion through the play-offs for the first time, having failed to make it through on each of the last five occasions (1995, 2001, 2003, 2009 and 2011).
Huddersfield are only the fourth Football League club to reach the final of the play-offs in all three divisions after Blackpool, Preston and Swansea – only Blackpool have won all three.
The Royals have lost in each of their previous three play-off final appearances, while only Sheffield United have lost more (4).
The Terriers have been promoted from three of their four play-off finals, winning promotion in 1995, 2004 and 2012, with the latter two coming in penalty shootouts after goalless draws. The exception was a 3-0 defeat to Peterborough in 2011 in League One.
Following Huddersfield’s 4-3 penalty shootout win over Sheffield Wednesday in the semi-final, they have now won all five of their penalty shootouts in the play-offs – no other side has ever won more than one.
Reading have been defeated in each of their previous three play-off final games, despite scoring at least twice in all three games (3-4 v Bolton, 2-3 v Walsall and 2-4 v Swansea).
On three of the last five occasions third place has faced fifth place in a second tier play-off final, the side finishing third has won promotion (Watford in 2006, Swansea in 2011 and West Ham in 2012).
Yann Kermorgant has scored 10 goals in his last 10 league starts for Reading, including the winning goal in their semi-final tie against Fulham.
Terriers striker Nahki Wells scored at Wembley in the 2013 League Two play-off final for Bradford, as the Bantams won 3-0 against Northampton.
Six of Reading’s last nine goals have come from set piece situations (five from corners and one penalty).
The Terriers could become the first team in Football League history to have won promotion having conceded more goals than they’ve scored in the league campaign.
Posted at 2135 BST on 25/05/17.