Sky Bet Championship: Betting preview for the remaining nine games of the 2019/20 season, including the play-off battle
With the Sky Bet Championship returning this weekend, Tom Carnduff makes his predictions for the remainder of the season.
Recommended bets
1pt Millwall to win the play-offs at 14/1
1pt Fulham to finish in the top two at 8/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
After a three-month hiatus, the Sky Bet Championship returns with nine games of the 2019/20 campaign remaining.
Fulham taking on Brentford is the perfect clash to welcome back football in England's second tier. Two of the promotion hopefuls meeting in a game that could go either way; with anything but a home win having a significant impact on the automatic promotion race.
Leeds sit top of the pile and sit seven points clear of third; West Brom's gap to the play-offs is six points. Both are heavily fancied to go on and reach the Premier League. Leeds are 1/20 for promotion; West Brom find themselves at 1/16.
It's hardly a surprise. The current top two have occupied their spots, with some changing around, since gameweek 17. Crucially, they won't play each other at any point between now and the end of July.
We'd expect Leeds and West Brom to achieve automatic promotion, although there is some caution given the results we have seen in Germany and Spain. Much has been made of the success of away teams in the Bundesliga; while Valencia and Real Sociedad failed to win at odds-on prices in the returning weekend of LaLiga.
The Championship always provides surprise results and the chances of that increases based on the circumstances. Essentially, it won't be a massive shock to see a team at the bottom beat a team at the top; although a single result shouldn't be used to define the remainder of a season.
That does mean that there is value on offer in the outright markets. Previous results should not be disregarded but the games were so long ago that they no longer constitute form. That will have a bigger impact on the bottom of the table than those at the top; just three points separates Stoke in 17th and Charlton in 22nd.
The fixture list means that a lot of the teams battling to avoid the drop will play each other at some point over the next nine fixtures. The results there will be a deciding factor in who eventually does drop down to Sky Bet League One.
With the restart having the feel of a new season, we pick out our best bets for the remaining games.
The race to the Premier League
As mentioned above, it's clear just how fancied Leeds and West Brom are in the battle for automatic promotion. There is no value on offer in backing either to go on and reach the Premier League.
The straight forecast of Leeds first and West Brom second provides a price of 8/13, while the reverse can be found at 2/1. That could be the best course of action for a decent price involving these two maintaining their current role.
In fact, 33/1 on West Brom first and Fulham second is the shortest price you can get on the straight forecast not involving Leeds at all. Bielsa's men are 4/11 for the title and have maintained favouritism throughout the course of the season.
The only real threat to their position is Fulham. The team in third trail by six points and have a tough fixture list ahead, which includes a trip to Leeds on the second weekend back. Brentford and Nottingham Forest both sitting on 60 points gives them too much to do at this point.
It's worth remembering that this point of the season is better judged in game swings as opposed to points on the board. For example, while Brentford may be fancied by some to potentially sneak into the top two, they have to find a four-game swing over the next nine fixtures. If West Brom had a bad run-in and won just three of their remaining games, Brentford would have to win seven. The Baggies have been going at a rate of roughly one win every two games. That makes the Brentford price of 10/1 on a top-two finish too short for my liking.
For Fulham, the goal difference situation puts them in three-game swing territory. However, considering their remaining fixtures see them come up against others in the top six, it could well be a possibility. After this point last season, Leeds would only go on to win a further ten points, while West Brom won 16. A similar outcome combined with a confident Fulham finish would fire them into the top two.
So while Leeds and West Brom are short prices to go on and finish the job, the 8/1 available on Fulham to finish in the top two is worth consideration on value alone. This isn't like any other normal season and we just don't know how teams will react following a lengthy spell without competitive matches. Some will pick up where they left off whereas others will find it difficult to adjust.
We've seen that happen in the Bundesliga. Borussia Monchengladbach had picked up points in six of their seven games prior to the stoppage; they have since won two of their six games back. Koln had won eight of ten before the break; they have failed to win any of their six since. Even with the six-point gap between Fulham and the automatic places in the Championship, it wouldn't be wise to simply disregard their chances at this point in the campaign.
Best bet: Fulham to finish in the top-two at 8/1
The play-off battle
The same logic can also be applied to the play-offs with seven or eight teams having a serious chance of reaching the top six at this point in the campaign. Just six points separates Preston in that final spot and QPR in 13th; although it should be said that the Rs are 22/1 for a top-six finish.
We had Bristol City as our top-six selection pre-season and they remain in the play-off hunt. However, at this point, it's worth giving serious consideration to Millwall's chances based on what we've seen under the guidance of Gary Rowett.
Perhaps the biggest change is that they no longer rely on home results. Millwall were previously a side who performed well at the Den but failed to replicate that on the road. This season has them ninth in the home standings and tenth in the away.
In fact, If you look at the table since Rowett took charge at the end of October, the Lions are fifth, with only West Brom losing fewer games.
The nine draws can also only be bettered by Birmingham and Swansea. What we are seeing from this Millwall side is one that can grind out results and, crucially, they are doing that in all environments.
Rowett's Millwall appear to be the perfect play-off team; tough to beat, physical and utilise their aerial dominance to perfection at both ends of the pitch. There are the results against top-six sides to back that up too. Leeds and West Brom are the only two teams at the top-end of the division who have beaten Millwall under their current manager. It's also worth noting that they held a 2-0 lead at Leeds at half-time.
Under Rowett's guidance, Millwall have beaten Brentford at home, while there have been away victories at Swansea, Bristol City, Preston and Nottingham Forest. Alongside that, there were home draws against Forest, Fulham and Bristol City while they also picked up a point on the road at Cardiff.
They currently sit two points outside of the top six with one of the better goal differences in the chasing pack. The fixture list has also been kind to Millwall; they don't play any of the current top six in their remaining games. So while those above are taking points off each other, Rowett's side could sneak ahead and secure one of the play-off spots on offer.
If they are involved in the post-season competition then it's worth backing them to win it. A price of 7/4 is available on a top-six finish for Millwall, but based on what we've seen from them this season, the better value lies in the 14/1 on being the play-off winners.
Best bet: Millwall to win the play-offs at 14/1
Who gets relegated?
There was a point this season where a small argument could be made that Hull were play-off outsiders. There is absolutely nothing along the same lines now.
Grant McCann's men are in free fall. They have not won a league game since their 1-0 away victory at Sheffield Wednesday back on New Year's Day. Since that fixture at Hillsborough, the Tigers have played 11 Championship fixtures and lost nine. Their two games before the break saw them concede nine goals with just one in reply; that's left them 21st in the standings. Just two points separates Hull and Charlton, who currently occupy the final relegation spot.
The January departures of Jarrod Bowen and Kamil Grosicki have hit them hard. Bowen had 16 goals and six assists in 29 league games prior to his move to West Ham while Grosicki had direct involvement in 12 goals - he is now at West Brom. Hull looked to find replacements but it just seemed too much to do in a winter transfer window. McCann is a good manager, that was reflected with spells at Peterborough and Doncaster, but he needs a lot more from the current crop he has.
Their remaining fixtures seen them come up against promotion-chasing West Brom, Millwall, Bristol City and Cardiff while they also face fellow strugglers Charlton, Middlesbrough, Wigan and Luton.
Those games will be tough, and given their results since Christmas, they need to turn things around as early as possible. Defeat in that contest with the Addicks will leave them with a mountain to climb.
Even with Charlton's current playing issues, which has seen top striker Lyle Taylor refusing to play with his contract expiring at the end of the month, they have shown that they can continue to overcome obstacles under Lee Bowyer's leadership. With poor ownership at the time, Charlton still went on to secure promotion to the Championship last year.
Hull would have had time to regroup but we have seen out of form teams in the Bundesliga, such as Schalke, fail to turn things around despite the lengthy stoppage. You fear the same could be said for Hull and their chances of survival.
Best bet: Hull to be relegated at 7/4
Odds correct at 1130 BST (15/06/20)
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