Real Madrid can back up their first-leg win over Atletico in Wednesday's Champions League semi-final, says our Andy Schooler, who also has a good-looking bet in the cards markets.
Recommended bets: Wednesday Champions League
2pts Real to win at 17/10 – dominated first leg & look more than capable of a repeat success
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Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid (1945 BST, BT Sport 2, 1st leg: 0-3)
Sometimes you can talk yourself out of an obvious bet but I won’t be making that mistake ahead of the latest Madrid derby.
This will be these sides’ 20th meeting in the last four seasons but Atletico will not have gone into many of them with such a concerned mindset.
Having taking a firm hammering in last week’s first leg at the Bernabeu they face what appears to be an impossible task in turning this one around – no side has ever overcome a two-goal deficit in a Champions League semi, let alone a three-goal one.
In a season which has seen Barcelona overturn a four-goal deficit to qualify from a two-legged tie, perhaps I should be careful about what I say.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing but what we did know about Barca v PSG was that the home side had a feared strikeforce and there were people who said if any side were capable of the comeback, it was Barca.
The opposite is true here.
Atletico’s strength is, supposedly, their defence but that let them down last week and it’s hard to make the case for them having the tools to dig themselves out of such a deep hole.
While I am loath to knock Antoine Griezmann, he’s not Lionel Messi and last week didn’t even look like Antoine Griezmann as Real snuffed out Atletico’s goal threat almost entirely.
Even if you do feel a Griezmann/Atletico fairytale could unfold in what is the Vicente Calderon’s final European game, there’s a problem at the other end given the fact that Real have now scored in 60 consecutive matches.
Extend that run here and Atletico will need not three to stand any chance but five.
Real’s defence is far from watertight but it did a fine job in the first leg and based on what I witnessed last week I simply can’t see where the hope is for Atletico.
Real were dominant and utterly outclassed their rivals, who now have to ditch their defensive mindset and come out (at least at some point, and not too late).
Real, who have already won at Napoli and Bayern Munich in the knockout stages, can be deadly on the break and it’s not difficult to see them picking off Atleti in ruthless fashion again.
I am reminded of the 2013 semi-final which saw Bayern head into the second leg against Barcelona with a 4-0 lead, one they duly increased to 7-0 by the end of the tie.
You don’t get Real at 17/10 to win a football match very often and the way things are set up here, that deserves to be snapped up.
Looking into things a little deeper, there’s another odds-against shot I like the look of in the cards markets.
Atletico can be backed at 29/20 (William Hill) to pick up four or more cards in the contest and that looks a tad big.
History certainly suggests so as 13 of those 19 matches over the past four seasons I’ve referred to have seen them receive that many.
They include the 2013/14 final against Real when things got ratty and they received seven yellows (boss Diego Simeone also got sent off), while the 2014/15 semi-final second leg at the Bernabeu also came in.
This is another big game but one in which Atletico are behind the eight ball.
Simeone has never gone down without a fight, either or a player or a manager, and his side reflect his persona. They are masters of the ‘dark arts’ and there appeared to be a clear tactic to unsettle Real with some roughhouse stuff last week, although admittedly they only ended up picking up three cards in that game.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Atletico losing their rag a bit should it quickly become clear that Real are indeed heading to Cardiff and in what will still be a fervent derby atmosphere, not to mention an historic occasion, there seems every chance that four cards are shown to the men in red, white and blue.
Throw in the fact that Turkish ref Cuneyt Cakir is averaging 4.34 cards per game this season (4.5 in the Champions League) and the case is made.
The bet is odds-on in places. Take the 29/20 while you can.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 0-2 Real Madrid
Opta stats:
o No team has ever overturned a 3-0 first-leg away defeat in the Champions League knockout stages in five previous attempts, although Barcelona managed the biggest ever comeback in this season’s round of 16 by eliminating Paris SG 6-5 on aggregate after a 4-0 first leg defeat.
o This is the fourth season in succession that these city rivals face off in the Champions League knockout phase; Atlético are yet to claim victory during this recent run (D2 L3).
o Atlético Madrid have reached the semi-finals of the Champions League for the third time in four seasons. Meanwhile, Real Madrid have reached the Champions League semis for the 7th consecutive season, a record in the history of the tournament.
o Atlético Madrid have won 17 of their 22 Champions League home games under Diego Simeone (D4 L1), their only defeat coming against Benfica in September 2015 (1-2). They are unbeaten at the Calderón in the knockout stages (W6 D4).
o However, they’ve scored more than two goals on only one occasion in 10 knockout games at the Calderón under Simeone. It came in March 2014 against AC Milan (4-1).
o Atlético Madrid have also kept a clean sheet in 16 of their last 18 Champions League games at the Calderón.
o Real Madrid have won their last five Champions League games, their longest ever run of victories in the knockout stages of the competition. A sixth win in a row would establish a new record for the latter stages of the Champions League.
o Real Madrid have scored at least two goals in each of their 11 Champions League games this season. The first leg was also the only time they’ve kept a clean sheet in this season’s competition.
o Atlético Madrid are the lowest scoring team in this season’s Champions League amongst the four semi-finalists (13 goals in 11 games).
o Cristiano Ronaldo has now scored 103 goals in the Champions League, three more than Atlético Madrid. He’s netted 0.79 goals per game in the knockout stages (52 in 66 games), a better rate than in the group stages (0.71).
o Ronaldo has scored eight of Real Madrid’s last nine goals in the Champions League – the other coming from Marco Asensio. He’s also reached the 10-goal mark for the sixth consecutive Champions League campaign – no other player has done it on more than two consecutive seasons (Messi, Van Nistelrooy).
Posted at 1555 BST on 09/05/17.