Our Andy Schooler is backing a 14/1 anytime goalscorer in Tuesday night's Champions League semi-final second leg between Juventus and Monaco.
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Juventus v Monaco (1945 BST, BT Sport 2; 1st leg: 2-0)
Prior to last week’s first legs, I had been looking forward to this week’s football programme. It’s fair to say I am not now.
Four European semi-finals promised to be competitive. As it is, the second legs aren’t exactly screaming out ‘must watch’.
Such are the situations after those first legs, it will be a huge surprise if any of the teams who lost last week now reach the final.
Monaco (as big as 20/1 to qualify) are the first to attempt the miracle comeback, trailing Juventus 2-0 after the home tie.
They head to Turin just six days after their high-scoring attack was blunted by another Juve masterclass in Monte Carlo.
I hold my hands up to getting that one wrong last week – I felt Monaco would be able to trouble Leonardo Bonucci and co but in the end they created few chances and those that did come their way were not taken.
Teenage man-of-the-moment Kylian Mbappe was kept very quiet and the final scoreline fully reflected the game as a whole.
Maybe a side who have already won away to Dortmund feel they can still make next month’s final by throwing caution to the wind – they will surely have to at some point.
But Juve’s opening goal in the first leg is a reminder of the danger that approach will involve – Gonzalo Higuain finishing a superb move on the break – while they will also do well to remember what happened when they went toe-to-toe with Manchester City on their travels (for those who don’t, they lost 5-3).
And all that’s before you consider that Juve have failed to concede a single goal in five games in this season’s knockout stage.
Clutching at straws, Monaco have scored two goals in seven of their last nine away games (although clearly not against opponents of this quality), while they definitely looked more dangerous once experienced midfielder Joao Moutinho came off the bench last week. He will surely start this time.
Juve have a selection decision of their own to make with Sami Khedira available again after suspension, although so secure were his side in Monaco that you have to wonder why Max Allegri would want to make any changes.
It’s hard to make a serious case for Monaco turning this one around but equally are Juve really worth backing at 4/6 to win this second leg? I don’t think so.
Such is their defensive strength that snuffing out all Monaco threat could well be their priority here given they already lead by two goals.
With Juventus heavily fancied by the layers, many of the markets make little appeal but there’s one price that does catch my eye when linked to Monaco’s defensive record.
Juve defender Giorgio Chiellini is on offer at 14/1 (888sport, Unibet, 32Red) to score at any time and that looks too big.
Key to the suggestion is the fact that a large proportion of Monaco’s goals against have come from set plays. In Ligue 1 it’s a whopping 48 per cent – the highest figure among teams in Europe’s top five leagues.
Admittedly they have conceded only 29 goals in total so in true numerical terms it’s 14 but that is still a high number. To give it some perspective, only four Premier League teams have conceded more goals from set-pieces this season.
That will be music to the ears of Chiellini who scored in the home leg of Juve’s quarter-final victory over Barcelona.
It would be stretching it to say he’s as big a threat in the opponents’ box as he is a protector at the other end but there’s no doubt Monaco will need to keep a close eye on the Italian international.
At the price, he’s worth a small play in what is otherwise an unappealing match from a punting perspective.
Prediction: Juventus 2-0 Monaco
Opta stats:
o No team has ever overturned a 2-0 first-leg home defeat in the Champions League knockout stages in 14 previous attempts.
o Also, no French team has ever beaten Juventus on their own soil in European competition (D3 L11). Monaco’s two trips have both ended in defeat (4-1 in the 1997/98 Champions League semi-finals, 1-0 in the 2014/15 quarter-finals).
o This is the second time these sides have met in a Champions League semi-final, Juventus securing their passage to the final with a 6-4 aggregate victory 19 years ago before losing to Real Madrid in the final (1997/98).
o Juventus are one of two teams in this season’s Champions League (W8 D3). The other is Real Madrid.
o Juventus are also unbeaten in their last 18 Champions League home games (W11 D7), their longest ever run without a defeat in the competition on home soil. Bayern Munich are the last team to beat them, back in April 2013 (2-0).
o Juventus haven’t conceded a goal for 621 minutes, the current longest run in the competition. Six consecutive clean sheets constitute their new record in the competition. Sevilla’s Nico Pareja was the last player to find the Turin nets, back in November.
o Monaco have only won two of their 11 away games in the Champions League knockout stages (D2 L7), and have also never kept a clean sheet in those 11 outings.
o Monaco have conceded 18 goals in the Champions League this season – including 10 in their last three away games – more than any other team among the remaining semi-finalists.
o Gonzalo Higuain scored two goals in the first leg, as many as in his 24 previous Champions League knockout games. With five goals this season, it’s already the most prolific campaign of his career in the competition.
o Falcao and Kylian Mbappé have scored 10 of Monaco’s last 16 Champions League goals. In the first leg, Mbappé failed to find the net for the first time after having started a game in the competition.
Posted at 1630 BST on 08/05/17.