Champions League betting tips: Wednesday's preview
Our David John previews Wednesday's Champions League matches and has a 9/2 selection for Monaco v Manchester City.
Recommended bets:
Monaco v Manchester City (1945 GMT, BT Sport 2)
Common sense would dictate we are in for another zany night of goal action at the Louis II Stadium after the goalkeepers picked the ball out of the net eight times in the first leg.
A stirring late comeback from City with three goals in the final 19 minutes gives them a 5-3 advantage and they are now just 2/9 to reach the last eight of the competition.
It is no shock to hear those within the club talk about Barcelona’s extraordinary revival against PSG last week so Pep Guardiola’s men are very much on high alert against a team who proved a constant menace up front at the Etihad and could well have been in the ascendancy themselves but for their own inadequacies at the back.
Yaya Toure feels that the best policy for the visitors is to go out on the attack and push further clear in the tie but Pep has not lost sight of the fact his side must tighten up significantly if they are to maintain any aspirations of actually winning this competition.
As such, there have been two days of intensive work on defending and recent performances might even suggest Guardiola’s team are finally getting to grips with what he wants.
Since allowing Monaco to score three, City have conceded just once (against Huddersfield in the FA Cup replay) and the last three outings have all resulted in clean sheets.
Before we all start hailing the equivalent of the Italian national side from the 1980s, they faced Sunderland, Stoke and Middlesbrough – hardly the most prolific of triumvirates.
Equally important though is at the very least it is a step in the right direction and some confidence at last is being nurtured in an area of the game that will absolutely hold City back at the elite level unless addressed rapidly.
They managed to keep a lid on the dangerous Adama Traore and goal-shy Alvaro Negredo at the weekend in the FA Cup but how they cope against a resurgent Radamel Falcao and electrifying teenager Kylian Mbappe (both on target at the Etihad) will be a real signal of how any defensive improvements are coming along.
Falcao took a hefty blow in the victory over Bordeaux and hopes to be fit to start but his admission Monaco could lack experience at this stage of proceedings is an interesting little aside that should not be overlooked.
Guardiola, on the other hand, has powerfully preached to his squad this week to embrace the pressure and last season’s losing semi-finalists have surely by now stored up enough nous to make sure there are no slip-ups, starting this game from a position of relative strength.
In terms of a bet, it may fly in the face of consensus opinion but, with Falcao in all likelihood not 100 per cent, I am tempted by the 9/2 (bet365) for City to pass another test and deliver another clean sheet.
Prediction: Monaco 0-2 Manchester City
Opta facts:
o Manchester City claimed a 5-3 victory in the 1st leg; their first ever competitive meeting with Monaco.
o Eleven of the previous 13 times a side has scored four or more home goals in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, they have gone onto progress; one of those two instances when this did not happen was Real Madrid in a 2003/04 quarter-final against Monaco.
o However, since the current format has been in place there have been 20 instances of a side scoring three or more away goals in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie; all of them have progressed.
o Manchester City have never lost to French opposition in European competition (W2 D2).
o Monaco have come out on top in each of their three Champions League knockout ties with English clubs (v Manchester Utd in 1997/98, Chelsea in 2003/04, Arsenal in 2014/15).
o Monaco have lost six of their last eight Champions League knockout games (W1 D1), with their only win in that time coming in London against Arsenal (3-1, February 2015).
o There were 10 yellow cards handed out in the 1st leg at the Etihad Stadium; the most in a Champions League game this season.
o Manchester City and Monaco have both only kept one clean sheet in this season’s Champions League: Only Real Madrid have had fewer (0)
Atletico Madrid v Bayer Leverkusen (1945 GMT, BT Sport 3)
While City are in the box seat for their tie in France, Atletico are in whatever seating arrangement is slightly better as they play host to the Germans with a 4-2 advantage from the opening encounter.
This has not been a vintage season for Los Rojiblancos domestically but there is little doubt they have packed up those troubles on their travels across Europe.
It might rankle significantly they trail city rivals and leaders Real by 10 points in LaLiga and are involved in a battle for a spot in this competition next season but their form in the Champions League has transcended all of that and remains of the highest order.
They qualified for the knockout phase with two games to spare and took the scalp of Bayern Munich on the way to topping Group D so it would be a shocking reverse if these veterans of many a campaign were to blow this opportunity and not glide on into the last eight.
Judged on the stats, Leverkusen tackle a pretty unenviable task considering the home side have conceded just once in their last eight European home games at the Vicente Calderon, while that record extends to a miserly four in 16 Champions League games under the excellent Diego Simeone.
You would even have every right of being optimistic even if they did blot their copybook considering the current form of much-coveted Antoine Griezemann.
He has recovered sharply from a mid-season slump to score 12 times already in 2017 and was on target once more at the weekend in a scruffy 1-0 triumph at relegation-threatened Granada.
As for the Germans, they jetted off from Cologne/Bonn Airport in a positive mood and have very little weight of expectation on their shoulders.
The damage has been done. That result followed by a 6-2 mauling at the hands of Borussia Dortmund cost head coach Roger Schmidt his job but those remaining are still well up for the challenge.
“We are not going there for a short city break,” said interim boss Tayfun Korkut.
“We have to believe we can qualify.”
There are rumours abound that Simeone could cut short his stay in the Spanish capital having agreed to shorten the terms of his contract while some of the key personnel who have ensured an extended spell of recent success for Atletico are very much on the wrong side of 30.
I doubt any of that will have much of an influence on the immediate future of the club and though I am not going to invest, a routine home success is obvious as the evidence clearly stacks up.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Bayer Leverkusen
Opta facts:
o Atletico Madrid have only tasted defeat in one previous meeting against Bayer Leverkusen in European competition (W2 D2).
o The Spanish side come into this game having won 4-2 in Germany; there have been four previous instances of a side scoring four or more goals away from home in a last-16 first leg, all of them going on to progress.
o Atletico have always progressed past the Champions League round of 16 under Diego Simeone (2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16).
o Bayer Leverkusen have reached the knockout stages for the fifth time in their last six Champions League campaigns. However, they haven’t progressed past the round of 16 since 2001/02 when they were beaten finalists.
o In fact, Bayer Leverkusen have lost nine of their last 10 Champions League knockout games (W1), their only win in that run coming against Atletico Madrid (1-0, February 2015).
o Bayer Leverkusen need to score at least three times to have any chance of progressing to the next round; they’ve gone 31 Champions League games on the road without managing three or more goals (including 2002 final at Hampden Park), last doing it in March 2002 (v Deportivo de La Coruna).