Tuesday Champions League preview and predictions
David John has a double for Tuesday's Champions League fixtures, including Leicester hosting Sevilla.
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Leicester v Sevilla (1945 GMT, BT Sport 2)
The history of Leicester City changed 24 hours after these two met in the first leg in Spain as the club controversially disposed of Premier League-winning manager Claudio Ranieri - and they have been on the up-and-up ever since.
The general malaise that had pervaded the east midlands outfit seems to have magically lifted with two 3-1 victories in the Premier League over Liverpool and Hull while a level of stability has been established with former assistant Craig Shakespeare now in charge until the end of the season.
The Foxes headed off to Dubai for some de rigueur warm-weather training last week and the spirit in the camp genuinely does seem very upbeat with the pressure lifted currently in terms of a relegation battle thanks to those crucial six points.
Prospects look brighter with fresh minds and fresh legs and whatever your point of view on the reason, key figures Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez undoubtedly seem back in the groove and a 1-0 success on the night (2-1 to the Spaniards currently) would be good enough to see them through to the last eight.
It sounds straightforward but a team sat third in LaLiga and actually within hailing distance of Real Madrid and Barcelona stand in their way and are around 1/4 to progress and 6/5 for victory in 90 minutes.
They have been one of the most exciting teams to watch this season but a couple of unconvincing recent victories followed by back-to-back draws against Alaves and Leganes since facing Leicester has left manager Jorge Sampaoli to read the riot act to his players.
“Playing like this we are going to struggle to go far in the Champions League,” he said.
“We are not as fluid in our play as before and teams that are organised can impose themselves on us.”
Some of the players have stood up as well and taken responsibility so it seems like Sevilla could be drawing a bit of a line in the sand in a bid to press on and finish the season strongly both domestically and in Europe.
Sampaoli has revealed his spies recently delivered a report on “new” Leicester and Sevilla have subsequently “modified their plans” against a rival that all of a sudden seems to be trending in a positive direction.
Former Premier League midfielder Steven N’Zonzi was rested at the weekend and his return to the line-up should make a significant difference for the visitors and I would probably give him and Samir Nasri the edge in centre of the park up against Danny Drinkwater and the improving Wilfred Ndidi.
Results against a woeful Liverpool and relegation-threatened Hull were commendable but this is the first significant test in terms of what Leicester’s resurgent form actually adds up to at the moment.
A week off to prepare should help the hosts but Sevilla are good enough to spoil the party and go through – a small bet on both teams to score won’t exactly secure the retirement fund but looks a safe enough play to procure a small return.
Prediction: Leicester 1-1 Sevilla
Opta facts:
o Seven of the last nine times a side has lost 2-1 away from home in a Champions League first leg knockout tie, have failed to go on and progress to the next round.
o Sevilla have reached the Champions League knockout stages in three of their four appearances. However, they’ve never gone past the round of 16.
o No team has kept more clean sheets this season in the Champions League than Sevilla (5, same as Juventus).
o The Foxes were one of only four teams to win all three of their 2016/17 Champions League home group games (Atlético Madrid, Bayern Munich & Barcelona).
o However, Sevilla are yet to lose on the road in the Champions League this term (W1 D2); keeping clean sheets all three of those games.
o Samir Nasri has only recorded one goal and one assist in 17 Champions League knockout games.
Juventus v Porto (1945, BT Sport 3)
Alex Telles was in a physical mood when the duo met for the first leg in Portugal on February 22 and his selfish dismissal for a couple of clumsy challenges after just 27 minutes left his Porto team-mates with an uphill battle against the 2015 finalists.
The game turned into a virtual shooting gallery for the Italians from that point onwards but had gone beyond 70 minutes before they finally took advantage with a rapid-fire brace from Marko Pjaca and veteran full-back Dani Alves.
It is now up to them to convert that 2-0 advantage into a quarter-final place and the bookmakers hold out little hope for the visitors with Juve no bigger than 1/33 to progress.
That sort of quote may seem prohibitive on the back of Barcelona’s extraordinary antics last week against PSG but Massimiliano Allegri’s pacesetters in Serie A are unbeaten in this competition and have a remarkable home record this season to defend.
The Juventus Stadium has staged 21 games all told with 18 victories and three draws for the hosts, the most recent success coming on Friday night when Paulo Dybala’s last-gasp penalty saw off AC Milan 2-1.
There was a feeling of relief all round and although Allegri may have been impressed by his side’s determination, just two goals from 24 attempts (11 on target) left the manager feeling they were fortunate to collect all three points after such a wasteful performance in the final third.
Presuming Porto can keep a full complement of players on the field then they will still feel they are not out of the tie.
They are enjoying a strong run of domestic form with nine straight wins – the second best in club history ����� while they have a highly dangerous goal-scorer in their ranks with January arrival Tiquinho banging home six already in nine appearances.
This is still very much an early stage for the 26-year-old Brazilian at this higher level after his move to Portugal last summer (Guimaraes) and it is asking a lot for him to make a telling impact against such an experienced defence which could welcome back Giorgio Chiellini after he sat out Friday night’s fixture.
Allegri may make a change or two amongst his personnel but an early goal would just about wrap things up and take any wind out of Porto’s sails in terms of staging some sort of comeback.
The talent of Dybala, Gonzalo Higuain and company is too good to keep on squandering chance after chance so the line on over/under 43 minutes for a first goal for the Bianconeri looks too high to me.
Prediction: Juventus 2-0 Porto
Opta facts:
o No team (13 previous instances) has ever progressed having lost the 1st leg of a Champions League knockout tie by a scoreline of 0-2 (at home).
o Juventus have avoided defeat in 10 of their last 11 Champions League knockout games at home (W6 D4).
o Porto have only won once in their previous nine second leg Champions League knockout matches to have taken place away from home (D2 L6); conceding 18 times across their last five such fixtures, replying with just three in their favour in that time.
o The last six goals recorded by Juventus in the Champions League have all come in the second half (all by different players).
o No team has conceded fewer goals than Juventus this season in the Champions League, letting in only two efforts across seven matches.
o Dani Alves has scored two goals in his last five Champions League games, as many as in his previous 34 in the competition.
o André Silva has been directly involved in two-thirds of Porto’s goals in this season’s Champions League (six out of nine), scoring four and assisting two.
o Gonzalo Higuain has scored only two goals in 21 Champions League knockout games. In the group stages, he’s netted 13 goals in 38 games.
Posted at 1440 GMT on 13/03/17.