Free Champions League football betting tips: Olympiakos v Man City; Liverpool v Atalanta
The Champions League continues on Wednesday with Manchester City and Liverpool in action. Joe Townsend has a preview and best bets.
Recommended bets
2pts Man City to beat Olympiakos and under 3.5 goals at 23/20
1pt Man City to beat Olympiakos and under 2.5 goals at 13/5
0.5pt e.w Ferran Torres to score first at 8/1
1pt Under 2.5 goals in Liverpool v Atalanta at 11/5
0.5pt Hans Hateboer to score first at 40/1
0.5pt Hans Hateboer to score anytime at 11/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Liverpool v Atalanta
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 7/10 | Draw 10/3 | Away 16/5
Liverpool were mightily impressive in their thrashing of Leicester, making light of the current injury crisis at Anfield. No Trent Alexander-Arnold, Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez, Jordan Henderson, Thiago, Mo Salah... shall I go on?
It certainly leaves Jurgen Klopp with much less wriggle room than he'd like for a game against an Atalanta team who were a matter of seconds from reaching the Champions League semi-finals last season, but for some incredible late drama against PSG.
For that reason, despite Liverpool beating them 5-0 recently, I am avoiding the outright punt. From a value perspective, if I had to go somewhere it would be the draw given that it would be a good result for both.
Usually, Atalanta are real entertainers. Their Serie A trip to Spezia at the weekend ended goalless, which to put it mildly is something of a rarity. Prior to that, 45 goals had been scored in their 10 fixtures this season.
But I'm opposing goals in this fixture, with some logic, I promise.
Since being thumped on their own ground by the Premier League champions, Atalanta have drawn twice domestically, 1-1 against Inter Milan and then at Spezia - snooze-fests by their standards.
Against Liverpool, the game was more like a basketball match as Gian Piero Gasperini's free-spirited team took the Reds on, and failed. They conceded 12 shots on target, but still managed to record six themselves.
Pragmatism has prevailed since, as Atalanta have have tested the keeper the same number of times across the next 180 minutes of football; their opponents have been restricted to just five shots on target in total.
Under 2.5 goals at 11/5 and under 3.5 goals at 10/11 - both bet365 - is reflective of their overall, not recent, trend. Two matches isn't a big enough sample size to lay down a chunky slice on the latter, so I'm sticking with what I consider superb value and under 2.5 goals.
Where Liverpool are concerned, it's worth mentioning that they have battled to a 1-0 win at Ajax and laboured to a 2-0 win over Danish minnows Midtylland in their other two Group D fixtures.
I do expect Atalanta to be more cagey, but I don't expect to see less of a certain giant Dutch wing-back flying down the right-hand side. Hans Hateboer looks more like a centre-half, but boy does he have a turn of pace once he gets going. Not only that, his 6ft 3ins frame means he's a huge threat attacking the back post.
The Netherlands international was quiet last term, finding the net just twice, failing to back up the five goals he scored in 2018/19. But he has two from his opening six Serie A fixtures this term, and went close against Inter recently too while constantly charging into the box.
The traders at Genting Bet must've been looking somewhere different to everyone else, because they're pricing the Dutchman up at 40/1 as first goalscorer, rather than between 14 and 25/1. There's no each-way option with Genting, but they're also offering a comfortably market-leading 11/1 on him scoring anytime.
Liverpool have conceded first in three of their last five home matches, each time coming back to win, and although I consider Hateboer more of a threat from open play, the Reds' record of conceding three times from set pieces already this term is a bonus.
Their current challenges defensively, which will only increase as Klopp surely looks to balance his team up to carefully manage the few resources he has, makes the chances of someone leaving a man free at the back post more likely.
Let's hope so anyway.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Atalanta (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bets:
Olympiakos v Manchester City
- 17:55 GMT on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home 17/2 | Draw 4/1 | Away 1/3
Manchester City's poor start to the Premier League season continued with a 2-0 defeat at Tottenham on Saturday. Twelve points from eight top-flight matches by far the worst opening to any campaign overseen by Pep Guardiola in his trophy-laden managerial career.
But in the Champions League, it has been business as usual.
Three wins from three so far means that victory in Athens on Wednesday evening will book City's place in the knockout stage with two games to spare.
The root of their domestic struggles has been an uncharacteristic goal shortage - just five in their last six matches. But in Europe, they have scored three times in each of their wins.
I expect them to quickly move on from the weekend disappointment in north London, and seal their last-16 spot.
Olympiakos made things difficult at the Etihad earlier this month, but two late goals secured a 3-0 home win. Equipped with a watertight defence, they're not a side often involved in high-scoring matches.
A total of five goals were conceded in defeats by Porto and City, but in their other 11 fixtures this season the Greek side have been breached only once. Just the one game has seen over 3.5 goals, and that 4-0 league victory saw their opponents down to 10 men from half-an-hour.
In the Champions League this season, they scored a stoppage-time winner to beat Marseille 1-0 at home, and pushed Porto and City close, with the scoreline 0-1 heading into the final 10 minutes.
I'm backing Olympiakos to make things difficult again, but trusting Guardiola's men to get the job done.
Given how close the Greek side have come to three successive under 1.5 goal matches I was tempted by the 4/1 on offer. However, Manchester City's ability to find the net in Europe while struggling in the Premier League is perplexing, and judging by recent showings they should have enough.
City to win and under 2.5 goals at 13/5 with Betway and BoyleSports offers great value, with the under 3.5 goals option providing the additional safety net but still a nice 23/20 price with the former.
And I am throwing this one in there as I don't want to be left kicking myself.
With Raheem Sterling, Sergio Aguero and Phil Foden all on the bench against Tottenham, there is every chance Ferran Torres will start as a substitute in Athens, meaning there's a strong possibility we could be looking at a refunded stake.
If anything, that has strengthened my desire to take the huge 8/1 first goalscorer odds on offer with Paddy Power and Betfair, whose each-way terms pays out 1/3 for the first five goals.
Torres has scored in all three Champions League games so far, breaking the deadlock in two. The Spaniard also slammed in a hat-trick against Germany in his country's 6-0 demolition last week.
I'm taking him each-way, even off the bench.
Score prediction: Olympiakos 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bets:
Man City to win and under 3.5 goals at 23/20
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (23/11/20)
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