1pt Real Madrid to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 6/4 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
1pt Under 3.5 cards at 6/4 (William Hill)
*All bets 90 minutes only
Real Madrid to win in 90 minutes
Jadon Sancho to win 2+ fouls
Vinicius Jr to score in 90 minutes
Dani Carvajal to commit 2+ fouls
Yes, Real Madrid are back in yet ANOTHER Champions League final. The 14-time champions of Europe most recently won the title back in 21/22, and will partake in their sixth UCL showpiece over the last 11 seasons. Spoiler alert - they have lifted the trophy in all six.
Standing in their way of a record extending 15th title and a seventh in 12 season are Dortmund, the side who finished fifth in the Bundesliga this season.
Edin Terzic's side have defied the odds to get this far, but it has to be said, they haven't really been tested. Their group stage comprised of French champions PSG, the seventh best side in England, Newcastle, and the distant second best side in Italy, Milan.
The last 16 saw them beat PSV, they ousted a poor version of Atletico Madrid (4th in La Liga) in the quarters, before getting the better of PSG again in the semis. Real, for comparison, edged out RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich - both who finished comfortably above Dortmund in the Bundesliga - and beat defending UCL champions Manchester City on their way to the final.
There is no doubt that this will therefore be Dortmund's toughest test of the season, in any competition, and that explains why Madrid are so short to win the game in 90 minutes (8/13) and to win lift the trophy (3/10).
I strongly fancy Ancelotti's men here, for a number of reasons, and I feel the best way to get them onside is to back REAL MADRID TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 6/4.
We are talking about a team who stormed to the La Liga title this season, are on a 47 game unbeaten run (in 90 mins) across all competitions stretching back to September, and have a spell cast over this competition that is simply unquantifiable. They won't be blinded by the bright lights on Saturday.
Five of the last six and 11 of the last 16 Champions League finals have gone under 2.5 goals, so we shouldn't really expect too many goals here either, especially when assessing the two sides.
Defensively they are solid, conceding just 35 goals in their last 43 matches across La Liga and Champions League contests, allowing just 1.04 xGA per game, keeping 21 clean sheets. They should be able to keep Dortmund at bay here.
At the other end, the Germans have shown just how vulnerable they are, while we know the strengths Real possess. Terzic's side have allowed a huge average of 1.65 xGA per game this season across league and UCL matches, with that figure rising to 1.91 when isolating just the latter.
They have been very fortunate to make it this far, relying on poor finishing and top quality goalkeeping. PSG - a side who I rate quite a bit lower than Madrid - created an abundance of chances equating to 10.3 xG (2.6 per game) across their four meetings despite scoring just three times. Los Blancos will be much more clinical.
I'm also going to have a bet similar to last weekend's successful ones in the FA Cup final, opposing cards. We can back UNDER 3.5 CARDS at 6/4 and that appeals.
The Champions League final has been good for card opposers in recent seasons, with this bet having landed in four of the last six showpieces. It nearly landed in last season's too, only for three yellows to come after the 90th minute. Overall there has been an average of just 3.0 cards per game in that span - and that's boosted by Daniele Orsato's eight in the behind closed doors final in 2020!
Referee appointment has a lot to do with it, but also I feel as though there has been far more leniency this season in this competition from referees in general, allowing the games to flow and not being so quick to reach for a card. The four high-octane, high-pressure semi-finals delivered just 12 cards for an average of 3.0 per game.
Slovenian Slavko Vinčić is the man in the middle, and he has averaged 3.5 cards per game in the Champions League this season, while these two sides' games haven't been card laden this term.
Dortmund's matches have averaged 2.92 cards per game with Real's at 3.33, adding more confidence into the Under 3.5 bet. Of course if Mr Vinčić dishes an early card, this bet is likely screwed, but team, referee and historic stats are in our favour.
If you want to get greedy, no cards can be backed at 41/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power, with that bet as short as 22/1 in places. It did land when Liverpool beat Tottenham in 18/19, and there was a Slovenian referee in charge on that day too...
Dortmund could name the exact same team for this game as they did in both legs of the semi-final victory over PSG. Edin Terzic has all of those 11 players fit and available.
The question mark is around Marco Reus, who was brought in for Dortmund's last home league game of the season and receiving an incredible send off with this being his final season at the club. There is no room for sentimentality in a Champions League final though, and Reus is expected to start on the bench.
Real Madrid could be without Aurelien Tchouameni at Wembley, with the Frenchman a doubt through injury, which could mean Eduardo Camavinga coming into midfield, while Carlo Ancelotti has a huge decision to make between the sticks.
Thibaut Courtois has been injured for nearly all of the campaign but is now fit and available, leaving Real's Italian supremo with a selection headache given how well Andriy Lunin has played throughout the season.
Dortmund: Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Can, Sabitzer; Adeyemi, Brandt, Sancho; Füllkrug
Real Madrid: Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Rüdiger, Mendy; Valverde, Kroos, Camavinga; Bellingham; Rodrygo, Vinícius Júnior
Odds correct at 1150 BST (28/05/24)
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