Champions League betting tips: Celtic v Astana play-off preview
Celtic look opposable in their Champions League play-off tie against Astana, says our Andy Schooler.
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Celtic v Astana (1945 BST, BT Sport 2)
These two sides meet in the Champions League play-offs for the second time in two seasons with their previous tie only settled by a goal in the last minute of the second leg.
It was certainly a tight contest but the bookies’ prices suggest things won’t be as close 12 months on - it’s 4/11 Celtic and 5/2 Astana in the ‘to qualify’ market.
However, that looks a classic case of a book being built on the number of bets expected to be placed, rather than one which reflects the true nature of the tie, and it could pay to be with the underdogs at such a price.
Yes, suggesting that this year’s renewal will be close because last year’s was isn’t making a good case but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest Celtic can be taken on.
Of primary concern to Celtic backers are the Hoops’ injury problems.
Star man Moussa Dembele remains sidelined by a hamstring injury, while at the back first-choice centre-backs Dedryck Boyata and Erik Sviatchenko are also out. All three will miss both legs.
Jozo Simunovic and Nir Bitton will fill in and despite the pair managing to keep Rosenborg out in Norway a fortnight ago, there remains a concern about having to field such a pairing in a massive game such as this.
The good news for the Hoops is that striker Leigh Griffiths has declared himself “fully fit” although how seriously that claim can be taken following a stop-start season thus far due to a calf problem is open to debate.
Celtic will hope further problems do not arise before next week’s second leg in Kazakhstan as it’s proved a notoriously difficult place to go.
Astana are unbeaten in their last 14 European games on home soil with Atletico Madrid and Benfica among the teams unable to win at the Astana Arena, which has an artificial pitch.
Admittedly eight of those games have ended as a draw but it’s still an impressive one which the Scottish champions will be wary of.
They will certainly be keen to claim a lead in the first leg at Parkhead and Astana’s poor away record of just one win in 14 in Europe offers them plenty of hope.
However, Celtic’s potential frailty at the back will also encourage the visitors and there are goals in their attack.
Junior Kabananga has 14 goals in 23 games in his domestic league this season (it’s a summer league out in Kazakhstan) and earlier this year the Congo star finished as the top scorer at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Patrick Twumasi is another to warrant respect. He’s scored in three of Astana’s four qualifiers so far, including against Legia Warsaw in the previous round.
Seven points clear at the top of their domestic league in which they have won their last eight games, Astana know what to expect at Parkhead this time around and look the value call across the tie as a whole.
As for Wednesday’s first game, I’m tempted by both teams to score at 11/8 given the injury problems of the hosts. However, the conclusion has to be to focus on the ‘to qualify’ market and use the betting bank accordingly.
Prediction: Celtic 2-1 Astana
Posted at 1600 BST on 15/08/17.
Related links
Bet on Celtic v Astana with Sky Bet
Wednesday's football fixture list in full