Free football betting tips and odds: Basel v Manchester City and Juventus v Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League
Harry Kane and another Manchester City win without keeping a clean sheet are backed in Tuesday's Champions League preview.
Champions League recommended bets
2pts Manchester City to beat Basel and both teams to score at 2/1
2pts Harry Kane to score in Juventus v Tottenham at 37/19
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Basel v Manchester City (1945 GMT, BT Sport 3)
By Nick Hext
I previewed both legs of Manchester City's Carabao Cup semi-final against Bristol City last month and reached the same conclusion for both matches.
Pep Guardiola's Premier League all-stars will win but they won't keep a clean sheet.
It provided profits on both occasions as City claimed a couple of entertaining victories and I can only take the same approach for Tuesday night's opening leg of the Champions League round of 16 tie against Basel in Switzerland.
Six of City's last eight victories have been winners in the match result and BTTS betting.
Basel, albeit at a lower level than the Premier League, have netted in 11 of their last 12 outings in the Swiss Super League and Champions League.
It all points to business as usual with City’s attacking talent outshining their defensive counterparts.
Basel reached the last 16 by finishing second in their group behind Manchester United and they managed a 1-0 victory at home to the Red Devils.
As this season's Premier League has proved, Manchester City are a lot strong than United so I'm not too concerned by Basel's win against Jose Mourinho's side.
The Swiss club thrashed Benfica 5-0 and lost 2-1 to CSKA Moscow in their other two Champions League group games this season to give an indication of their inconsistency.
City have been boosted by positive injury news ahead of the game. Leroy Sane could make a surprise comeback and David Silva, Fabian Delph and Phil Foden are also back in the running.
Gabriel Jesus remains out though so the in-form Sergio Aguero will continue to lead the attack.
City are as short as 4/11 to take an advantage back to the Etihad Stadium so add BTTS to give yourself more value at 2/1.
It has been the best way to make a profit with the Premier League leaders in the last few weeks.
Prediction: Basel 1-3 Manchester City (Nick Hext)
Opta statistics
- This will be the first competitive meeting between Basel and Manchester City.
- Basel have won four of their last five home games against English clubs in the Champions League (L1).
- Basel have also won four of their last five Champions League games (L1), as many wins as in their previous 22 games in the competition (D6 L12).
- Basel are unbeaten in their two games at St Jakob Park in the knockout stages (W1 D1). However, they have never gone further than the last 16 (11/12, 14/15).
- Meanwhile, this is Manchester City’s seventh consecutive Champions League participation. They have made it past the Last 16 only once though, it was in 2015/16 when they reached the semi-finals (knocked out by Real Madrid).
- Manchester City have won only one of their six away games in the Champions League knockout stages (D1 L4), it was against Dynamo Kiev in February 2016 (3-1). They’ve also never kept a clean sheet in those six games.
- Eight of Manchester City’s 14 Champions League goals this season (57 per cent) have been scored in the opening or closing 15 minutes of games.
- Meanwhile, four of the five goals conceded by Basel have come in the second-half (80 per cent).
- Basel have averaged 39 per cent possession in this season’s Champions League, the lowest ratio among the 16 teams left in the competition.
- Dimitri Oberlin has scored four goals in his last five Champions League games.
- Raheem Sterling has scored four goals in five Champions League appearances this season, already his most prolific campaign to date.
- Pep Guardiola has won the Champions League on two occasions as a manager (2009 & 2011, both with Barcelona). A third trophy would equal Carlo Ancelotti and Bob Paisley’s record. He’s also reached the semi-finals in seven of his eight previous seasons as manager but hasn’t made the final since 2011.
Juventus v Tottenham Hotspur (1945 GMT, BT Sport 2)
By George Pitts
In one of the most eye-catching clashes of the last 16, Tottenham face a tough task as they bid to reach the quarters.
The good news is that they have the advantage of having the return leg at home as they take on European stalwarts Juventus.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side travel to Turin full of confidence, having gone unbeaten in the Champions League this term - despite being in a group with Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid - and finishing top with 16 points from a possible 18.
The highlight of their campaign so far must surely be their quickfire clashes with Madrid, heavyweights in the competition having won it 12 times. After a draw at the Bernabeu, Spurs were 3-1 winners at Wembley two weeks later.
Granted, Real aren’t having the best of seasons, but Spurs still deserve credit for causing the reigning champions a whole load of problems over two matches and would be wise to keep this in mind when they kick off in Italy.
They will be facing one of Europe’s hottest front pairings in Paulo Dybala and Gonzalo Higuain, providing the former is passed fit.
The Old Lady are usually running away with the Serie A title at this point, but they currently sit second, a point behind Napoli and in real danger of missing out on the title after winning it for the last six seasons.
Massimiliano Allegri’s side know the Champions League well though, as they reached last year’s final only to come up short against Real.
They kept Barcelona quiet in Turin with a goalless draw in the group stages and I think it will be just as tough for Spurs, who will be looking to Harry Kane and Christian Eriksen to find an opening.
Although Juve have conceded just once in the last 16 games, Spurs forward Kane has 32 goals in 33 appearances this term and 37/19 seems a good price to score anytime, with bookies pitching Dybala and Higuain at shorter odds.
Pochettino will be keen to return to England with the game still in their grasp and I think they will get a hard-earned draw at the Juventus Stadium, perhaps with Kane enhancing his phenomenal record on the back of Saturday's winner against Arsenal.
Prediction: Juventus 1-1 Tottenham (George Pitts)
Opta statistics
- This will be the first competitive meeting between Juventus and Tottenham Hotspur.
- Juventus are unbeaten in their last 22 Champions League home games (W14 D8), their longest ever run without a defeat in the competition on home soil. Bayern Munich are the last team to beat them in Turin, back in April 2013 (2-0).
- Juventus have also kept nine clean sheets in their last 13 home games in the competition.
- Juventus have lost only two of their last 19 Champions League games (v Real Madrid in last season’s final and Barcelona in this season’s group stages), winning 12 and drawing five.
- Juventus scored seven goals in this season’s six group stages, the lowest tally amongst the 16 clubs left in the competition.
- However, as per last season’s Champions League, Juventus have allowed the fewest shots on target to the opposition (2.3 per game).
- Juventus have reached the final of the Champions League in two of the last three seasons. They have also lost the last five Champions League finals they have featured in.
- Meanwhile, Tottenham have reached the knockout stages of the Champions League for the second time in three appearances after 2010/11. They’ve never progressed further than the quarter-finals.
- Tottenham are one of four teams still unbeaten in this season’s Champions League, alongside Barcelona, Besiktas and Liverpool.
- Among the 16 clubs left in this season’s Champions League, Tottenham are the only side (alongside Shakhtar Donetsk) yet to score from set-piece, all 15 of their goals coming from open play.
- Gonzalo Higuain has scored four goals in 27 Champions League knockout games (0.15), as opposed to 15 goals in 44 group games (0.34).
- If he plays, this will be Mario Mandzukic’s 50th Champions League game. He’d become the fourth Croat to reach that landmark after Luka Modric, Darijo Srna and Robert Kovac.
- Harry Kane is directly involved in 53 per cent of Tottenham’s goals in this season’s Champions League, scoring six and assisting two of his side’s 15 goals.
- Massimiliano Allegri has reached the knockout stages in each of his eight campaigns as manager in the Champions League. He was beaten finalist in two of the last three seasons with Juventus.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 12/02/18.
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