With excitement building ahead of the return of the Champions League, and after making a profit of +22.6pts in the competition last season, Jake Osgathorpe has an early look to take us from Group A to H to pick out his best bets.
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Alongside Jake's selections, Sporting Life's xG-powered team ratings have been used to display the probability of each team winning their group and qualifying to the last 16.
Last season, Jake made +2.14pts profit in his Champions League group stage preview, +8.13pts profit in the round of 16 preview, +0.85pts profit in the quarter-finals preview and 11.51pts profit in UCL match previews for a total of +22.63pts profit.
Football betting tips: Champions League group stage
5pts Inter Milan to win Group D at 9/10 (Unibet)
4pts PSG to win Group F at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
4pts AC Milan to qualify from Group F at 11/8 (Boylesports)
2.5pts PSV to qualify from Group B at 7/4 (General)
2pts Bayern Munich (A), Arsenal (B), Atletico Madrid (E) and Barcelona (H) to win their groups at 9/2 (Unibet)
1pt Bayern Munich to win all of their Group A games at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
Group A
It's hard to look past BAYERN MUNICH in this group, with the German champions a stronger side this season with the arrivals of Harry Kane and Kim Min-jae, but also after having a full pre-season under Thomas Tuchel.
They have started the new Bundesliga season emphatically, and the same can't be said for second favourites Manchester United, who have looked extremely vulnerable defensively so far this term, shipping 1.78 xGA per game.
Champions League Group A to win/qualify odds (via Sky Bet)
- Bayern Munich - 1/2 | 1/12
- Man Utd - 2/1 | 1/4
- Galatasaray - 12/1 | 11/4
- Copenhagen - 33/1 | 8/1
Galatasaray have a mishmash squad with some quality in their ranks - Wilfried Zaha and Mauro Icardi the standouts - so could pose a threat to United, while Copenhagen will likely be the 'whipping boys'.
Even at a best price 4/7 to win the group, I think there is value in backing Bayern, so for those of you who like short things, I'd recommend getting stuck in, but for the sake of this preview we will be adding the Bavarian giants in a 'win the group fourfold'.
Also, I'm going to take a small punt on BAYERN MUNICH TO WIN ALL OF THEIR GROUP GAMES at 10/1 with Sky Bet.
Bayern are the standout team in this group, especially after adding a world class striker - which they didn't have last year - and to me it's just a matter of if they can beat Manchester United at Old Trafford in matchday six.
What could be in our favour in that regard is that that final game may be the one which decides who finishes top, meaning we may not see a rotated Bayern side at any time through the group stage.
We saw that last season and the Bavarians still won all six group games - and that was in a group with eventual La Liga champions Barcelona and the Champions League runners-up Inter Milan. In fact, this is a bet that has won in three of the past four group-stage campaigns, with Bayern going W23 D1 in that span.
Group B
ARSENAL are back at the top table for the first time since the 2016/17 season, and they headline Group B. The gulf in quality between Mikel Arteta's side and the rest of the group looks wide, and while I don't see this being a total cake-walk - as is usually the case with the Gunners, who rarely do anything easily - I fully expect the Premier League side to top the pile.
A best price of 8/15 is, like Bayern's price, on the short side for many to back as a single, so they make up the second leg of our fourfold.
As a single, I do like the look of PSV TO QUALIFY alongside the Gunners at around 7/4.
The Dutch side knocked out Rangers in the final qualifying round to get to this stage, and have started the campaign in emphatic fashion, winning seven of eight and netting 24 times in the process.
One of those victories came against the Dutch champions Feyenoord in the Super Cup, and while Peter Bosz's side may get caught out occasionally at the back, they have the firepower to outscore some vulnerable opponents.
Champions League Group B to win/qualify odds (via Sky Bet)
- Arsenal - 8/15 | 1/6
- Sevilla - 4/1 | Evs
- Lens - 6/1 | 6/4
- PSV - 7/1 | 7/4
While Europa League champions (again) Sevilla are to be respected, they have started the new campaign in a horrendous manner, losing three from three in the league while shipping 2.67 goals per game. That defence won't be helped by the sale of star goalkeeper Bono to Saudi Arabia.
Lens caused a huge shock by finishing second in Ligue 1 last term, but have lost a number of key players and they too have started poorly, losing three of a winless four while conceding 2.5 goals per game.
There are far fewer question marks around PSV, and even as outsiders with some firms, I'm happy to back them to advance.
Group C
Real Madrid and Napoli are the big fish in the Group C pond, and the pair should both progress.
Union Berlin really are a fairytale story. They were in the NOFV-Oberliga Nord - fifth tier of German football - less than 20 years ago (2005/06) and now find themselves in the Champions League. It is truly remarkable stuff.
Champions League Group C to win/qualify odds (via Sky Bet)
- Real Madrid - 8/13 | 1/8
- Napoli - 2/1 | 4/11
- Union Berlin - 9/1 | 9/4
- Sporting Braga - 16/1 | 9/2
Union's recent success has been built on an unsustainable overperformance in attack, and that has continued in the Bundesliga this term, netting eight times from chances equating to 3.93 xGF. That won't continue, and while they are a well functioning team who are capable of a scalp, the likelihood is they will likely be out-classed.
Braga haven't participated in the UCL for more than 10 years, and have done remarkably well to make it to this stage, but should be below the standard required to hang with the big two.
The main question is who tops the pool? My vote would be with the favourite - Madrid - but it's a no bet here.
Group D
Last season's Champions League runners-up - INTER MILAN - head the betting in Group D and rightly so in my opinion.
They are a best price of 9/10 to WIN THE GROUP and that appeals to me.
Simone Inzaghi's side were excellent last season domestically, performing at the same level as eventual Serie A champions Napoli according to the data, and the signs are they have picked up from where they left off, despite seeing a few changes in their squad.
Marcus Thuram, Alexis Sanchez - the former Arsenal star and Manchester United flop who bagged 14 goals and three assists for Marseille last season - and Marko Arnautovic (yes, the former Stoke lad, but don't laugh, he netted 10 goals and averaged 0.47 xG/90 for a middling Bologna in Serie A last season) have come in to fill the void left by Romelu Lukaku and Edin Dzeko.
Yann Sommer replaces Andre Onana and Benjamin Pavard does likewise with Milan Skriniar, while extra depth has been added through Juan Cuadrado and Davy Klaassen - remember him Everton fans?
Granted, they are yet to be fully tested, but the Nerazzurri have scored eight and conceded none in their opening three games, averaging 2.99 xGF and 0.47 xGA per game.
Champions League Group D to win/qualify odds (via Sky Bet)
- Inter Milan - 4/5 | 2/9
- Benfica - 9/4 | 8/15
- Real Sociedad - 9/2 | 11/8
- Salzburg - 12/1 | 7/2
They are in a group with the team they beat in last season's quarter-finals, Portuguese champions Benfica, plus a Real Sociedad side who last appeared in the UCL a decade ago, and a Salzburg team who have progressed from the group stage once in their entire history.
Benfica have once again lost their star asset this summer, as is usually the case, with Goncalo Ramos heading for PSG, and while the rest of their team remains somewhat intact, let's not forget just how comfortably Inter beat Águias over two legs last season, especially away from home (2-0).
I make this group a straight shoot-out between Inter and Benfica, and have plenty of confidence in the Italians getting the job done again.
Group E
I'm a big fan of ATLETICO MADRID's potential this season, even if they have signed Çağlar Söyüncü this summer (he doesn't start, don't worry).
At a best price of 4/6 to win the group, they fall into the 'if you like short prices back them, if not put them in an acca' category, so will be the third leg behind Bayern and Arsenal.
Diego Simeone's men picked up the most points in La Liga last season after the international break, while also racking up the second most expected points (xP) and xGF per game (1.99). They have started in a similar fashion this term too so are a team to get onside in a favourable group.
Champions League Group E to win/qualify odds (via Sky Bet)
- Atletico Madrid - 8/13 | 1/6
- Lazio - 10/3 | 5/6
- Feyenoord - 9/2 | 5/4
- Celtic - 8/1 | 5/2
Dutch champions Feyenoord were in pot one for the group stage draw and will have liked their eventual opponents, but it has to be mentioned that they ranked as only the third best team in the Eredivisie last season, so were somewhat fortunate to win the title, and regression seems to have hit early doors this season.
They have lost the Dutch Super Cup and are W2 D2 out of the gate in the league, despite playing none of the sides who finished top five last term, so I have question marks around them, as I do around Celtic, who just continue to struggle at this level.
The Bhoys finished bottom of their group last season, behind Shakhtar Donetsk, and the early signs under Brendan Rodgers are that more work is required to compete in this group.
Lazio, the final team in this group, nearly made the staking plan being priced at 5/6 to qualify, but while they finished second in Serie A last term, they overperformed massively - ranking seventh best on xGD per game - and have lost arguably their best player, Sergej Milinković-Savić to Saudi Arabia, this summer.
So apart from Atleti entering the acca, it's a no bet in Group E.
Group F
The 'Group of Death'.
Last year it was Bayern Munich, Inter Milan and Barcelona. The year before it was Manchester City, PSG and RB Leipzig. This year it's PSG, AC Milan, Newcastle and Dortmund.
It's a cracking draw for the neutral, and for the punters in my opinion, for the simple reason that Newcastle are way too short in the betting to both win the group and qualify, meaning we are getting some inflated prices about their opponents.
I am a fan of Eddie Howe's side, even backing them to repeat their domestic top-four finish last season, but to see them second favourites among these clubs is a reach.
Especially ahead of AC MILAN, who I fancy TO QUALIFY.
The Italians did some excellent business this summer, spending the Sandro Tonali money - paid by Newcastle - on Christian Pulisic, Samuel Chukwueze, Yunus Musah, Tijjani Reijnders, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Noah Okafor, not only strengthening their starting XI, but also their squad.
The best bit of business they did, though, was tying Rafael Leao to a long-term contract. The Portuguese winger is unplayable at times and the star among the Rossoneri ranks, and he will provide all Group F opponents with headaches.
Milan reached the semi-finals of this competition last season, so possess that experience, as well as the quality, to come out of a tough group, and their form to start the season has been excellent, winning three out of three in Serie A.
Champions League Group F to win/qualify odds (via Sky Bet)
- PSG - 11/8 | 4/9
- Newcastle - 2/1 | 8/13
- AC Milan - 4/1 | 5/4
- Dortmund - 5/1 | 13/8
Dortmund are very opposable in this group, with Die Schwarzgelben having lost star man Jude Bellingham and left-back Raphael Guerreiro and looking much weaker. Through three games so far in the Bundesliga against FC Koln, Bochum and Heidenheim, they have won just once, struggling at the back even against three bottom-half teams (1.53 xGA per game).
As for Newcastle, they really are untested at this level, and while I think they are a solid side, their record against the best teams last season is a cause for concern. In 22/23 the Magpies were excellent against teams who finished eighth and below (W16, D10), but struggled against teams in seventh and above in the Premier League (W3, D4, L5).
So far this season they have won one and lost two against teams who fit that criteria too, so that is a concern in this group against good teams.
Finally, we need to touch on PSG.
Les Parisiens are in a transition period, moving away from the 'Galacticos' feel to a much younger, hungrier, team-based approach with a core of French stars.
At the helm now is Luis Enrique, an excellent manager who will get his side playing in a team-first manner. Don't forget, he was the manager of one of the most selfless Barcelona teams in 2015, despite having all of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez in the line-up. If anyone can make it work, he can.
I really like the look of their team now, more so than last year, especially having kept Kylian Mbappe and brought in the likes of Ousmane Dembele, Randal Kolo-Muani, Goncalo Ramos, Marco Asensio and Bradley Barcola to beef up the attack, while adding Skriniar, Lucas Hernandez and Manuel Ugarte to strengthen at the back.
In my mind, PSG are the class of this group, so I was pleasantly surprised to see them available at 11/8 TO WIN GROUP F, a price that should be snapped up.
Their squad is deep and full of quality, they have one of - if not THE - best players on the planet in Mbappe, and they have a coach who will elevate them. I'm a fan of their chances in this season's competition.
Group G
RB Leipzig must be the new Shakhtar Donetsk for Manchester City.
This will be the third straight season in which they will face each other, having been in the same group in 21/22 and met in the round of 16 last term.
The reigning champions have had no issues dealing with Die Roten Bullen at the Etihad, winning 6-3 and 7-0, but Pep Guardiola's side are yet to win in Leipzig.
Champions League Group G to win/qualify odds (via Sky Bet)
- Man City - 1/7 | 1/100
- RB Leipzig - 5/1 | 1/5
- Young Boys - 50/1 | 11/2
- Crvena Zvezda - 50/1 | 6/1
That shouldn't mean City don't win this group, but it's enough of a concern to put me off wanting to back them to win all of their group games at 10/3, especially as the meeting between the pair at the Red Bull Arena comes just four days before City travel to the Emirates to take on last season's Premier League runners-up Arsenal in what will be their biggest league game to date.
Add in the fact that City have never won all six group games under Guardiola, despite only really facing top opposition once, and that really looks like one to swerve. For context, these are the teams who finished second to City in the last six seasons; Dortmund, PSG, Porto, Atalanta, Lyon, Shakhtar, with their record reading W26-D4-L4.
They will likely win the group, but I'm not expecting a sweep, even if Young Boys and Crvena Zvezda should be cannon fodder for the Citizens.
RB Leipzig are short enough to advance alongside the champs, meaning it's a no bet.
Group H
On paper we have another group here which should be very one sided in the favour of BARCELONA.
The Catalan giants cantered to the La Liga title last season, and look in a good place at the start of this campaign under Xavi, making some excellent signings without spending much money - pulling the 'levers' as they'd say.
Ilkay Gundogan is an upgrade in midfield, while the acquisitions of the two João's - Felix and Cancelo - strengthen their XI.
Champions League Group H to win/qualify odds (via Sky Bet)
- Barcelona - 4/11 | 1/20
- Porto - 5/2 | 1/4
- Shakhtar Donetsk - 20/1 | 9/2
- Royal Antwerp - 22/1 | 5/1
They remain a creative juggernaut and, despite his age, Robert Lewandowski, leading the line for Barca, is still one of the best strikers on the planet, and he can fire them through a kind group.
BARCELONA are the fourth and final team in the fourfold given they sit in the same category of 'still value at a short price', with it hard to see any side causing them too many issues.
The only point of note that could be of interest to punters is that they are not playing their home games at the Camp Nou this season as it's under reconstruction, so will be playing at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys. I don't see that as enough of an issue to not get them onside though.
Porto topped their group last season but should be the bridesmaids here, with Shakhtar and Royal Antwerp - who feature in the group stage for the very first time - expected to be battling for third spot and a Europa League drop down.
All odds correct at 1400 (12/09/23)
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