Carlisle v Bradford City tips: Sky Bet League Two play-off best bets and preview
Bradford head to Carlisle with a slender lead, James Cantrill provides the preview and a best bet.
Football betting tips: League Two play-offs
0.5pts Corey Whelan anytime goalscorer at 14/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Carlisle to win in extra time at 12/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Carlisle to win on penalties at 11/1 (William Hill)
Nothing split these two over the domestic campaign, they finished on the same points (76) and won (20), drew (16) and lost (10) the same amount of games.
Bradford have their noses in front in this contest though.
The first leg was a low margin, tight affair. Possession was 0.3% away from an equal split and each side had two shots on target each with Jamie Walker’s first half strike the difference.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Carlisle 1/1 | Draw 9/4 | Bradford 13/5
Although the result suggests otherwise, it was probably the Cumbrians that edged the first leg.
Mark Hughes opted for an extra man in midfield, Adam Clayton, for defensive solidarity but it meant the hosts became disjointed and Andy Cook was left isolated.
If the Bantams go for a similar approach at Brunton Park, I expect a Carlisle onslaught, especially taking into account the dynamic of the tie.
One avenue the hosts will be looking to exploit is set pieces.
Only two fourth tier sides have scored more times via dead ball situations than United.
They have racked up an xG of 14.13, 171 shots and 20 goals from them, it is just a question of who to pick.
Centre back COREY WHELAN's had three shots on Sunday, more than anybody on his side.
Each of those three efforts came directly from corners, which is pretty impressive considering Carlisle only had three corners all game.
Whelan has averaged 0.06 xG per 90 and 0.12 goals, based on the latter, 10/1 about him to SCORE ANYTIME would be worth a punt, never mind the 14/1 available.
Game state means Carlisle have to go for it, a dynamic they grew into in West Yorkshire.
If the same as the first leg, Hughes tactics will invite pressure, pressure I think they will buckle under on the road.
Saturday’s hosts are 6/5 to win in 90 and 15/8 to reach Wembley but I think this clash could go the distance.
CARLISLE are 12/1 TO WIN IN EXTRA TIME and 11/1 TO WIN ON PENALTIES, both look worth a punt.
Bradford v Carlisle score prediction and best bets
- 0.5pts Corey Whelan anytime goalscorer at 14/1 (bet365)
- 0.5pts Carlisle to win in extra time at 12/1 (bet365)
- 0.5pts Carlisle to win on penalties at 11/1 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Carlisle 1-0 Bradford (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1300 BST (18/05/23)
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