Cardiff v Leeds tips: FA Cup best bets and preview
Leeds travel to Wales to take on Cardiff in the FA Cup third round, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the clash while providing a best bet.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Both Cardiff and Leeds are in relegation battles this season, with both just two points clear of the drop zone's in the Championship and Premier League respectively.
That makes this game a tough one to decipher, as the last thing either side needs really is a deep FA Cup run to add extra games to a compact schedule, and extra minutes on thin squads.
Given Cardiff are at home, in front of the TV cameras, they will probably want to show up in a big way and use this game as a catalyst in their fight to survival, so I expect the hosts to play hard here.
If that's the case, then we shouldn't expect too much entertainment on Sunday afternoon.
Cardiff are one of the dullest sides in the Football League. Across all four divisions, only games involving League Two Gillingham average fewer goals (1.5) than those featuring Cardiff (1.9).
When playing at home, Cardiff's matches feature just 1.6 goals on average, which, again, betters only Gillingham (1.5) - the team who currently rank 92nd of 92 teams in the top four tiers of English football.
The Bluebirds, now led by Mark Hudson, have scored just 10 and conceded 11 in 13 home league games this season, highlighting their rigid approach and lack of attacking intent.
From an underlying data perspective, they have averaged 1.19 xGF and 0.86 xGA per home game, with that second figure making them the fourth best defensive team in the division when playing at home.
That is a decent starting point to holding down what will likely be a much-changed Leeds team, and could well be the main contributor to this game going UNDER 2.5 GOALS, as so many of Cardiff's games have this season.
Across Cardiff league games this season, Under 2.5 has landed 69% of the time, with that percentage rising to 77% in Cardiff home games.
Now, Leeds and Unders don't tend to be two words I use in the same scentence, but Jesse Marsch's side will likely switch things up which could mean a lack of fluidity.
Plus, the Whites are playing against a stubborn defensive side, yet one who really struggle to create chances, which will be a relief for a rocky Leeds backline.
Cardiff v Leeds best bet and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Cardiff 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1515 GMT (05/01/23)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.