Carabao Cup free betting tips: Arsenal v Man City; Brentford v Newcastle | Best bets and preview

Football betting tips: Tuesday's Carabao Cup quarter-finals

1pt Phil Foden to have 1+ assists in Arsenal v Manchester City at 7/2

0.5pts Sergio Aguero to assist Riyad Mahrez and Mahrez to assist Aguero at 80/1

1pt Brentford to beat Newcastle at 6/4

1pt Mathias Jensen to assist 1+ goals in Brentford v Newcastle at 6/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Arsenal v Manchester City betting tips

• 20:00 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
• Match odds: Home 15/4 | Draw 16/5 | Away 8/13

Another weekend has passed and it's time to talk about another Arsenal defeat. Everton were the latest side to get the better of Mikel Arteta's men but there were some slight positives to take from that performance. The issue remains that they are failing to pick up points and a 12-point gap between themselves and the top-four has virtually ended their hopes of that already.

This competition could provide a welcome distraction from their awful league form but they face a side in Manchester City who love this trophy. Pep Guardiola's men have won it in each of the last three seasons and City have lifted the cup in four of their last five campaigns.

They are outright favourites for success again and with good reason. City's squad depth is ridiculously good. They can afford to play a second string for most of it and still end up celebrating on the Wembley pitch. Even with potential changes here you still fancy them to get the better of this Arsenal side.

Of course, Arteta's Gunners did beat City in the FA Cup last season but the positives of the 2019/20 campaign are now a distant memory. The team now compared with the team then hasn't seen many personnel changes but they do look a completely different side for all the wrong reasons.

One player who does benefit from City rotation is Phil Foden. A genuine talent but a player limited largely to appearances from the bench, this game is likely to give him the opportunity to get a much-needed 90 minutes in and he can make an impact.

Foden started the third round victory over Bournemouth and registered a goal and an assist. He also has a helper in both the Champions League and Premier League this season and both of those came from substitute appearances. While the attacking midfielder is 11/5 for a goal anytime, the better value comes in the 7/2 on an assist.

The 20-year-old had nine assists last season and the large majority of those came in games where he started. If Foden gets a full 90 minutes, more often than not he is making an impact and with the congested fixture list over Christmas seeing one more game here, this is a contest where he should play.

On the topic of rotation, we could well see Sergio Aguero involved as he looks to return to full fitness. A knee injury has kept him out for large parts of the season but he was on the bench at Southampton and featured in the draw with West Brom before that.

Even with Guardiola's team selection being a difficult one to predict, I'd be willing to gamble on Aguero making a start here and he is the subject of a huge 80/1 'Return the Favour' bet with Sky Bet. Aguero to assist Riyad Mahrez and Mahrez to assist Aguero could look like a fantastic price if both players make a start.

That is a bet that would have landed in City's 6-1 win over Aston Villa last season while Aguero also grabbed an assist on a Mahrez goal as he was fouled for a penalty in their annual 5-0 win over Burnley back in June. The winger made no mistake from the penalty spot and could be on penalty duty here if Kevin De Bruyne doesn't feature.

We know how good City are in attack and they will be looking forward to playing an out-of-form Arsenal side who won't even be at full strength. Rather than take City's odds-on price for victory, the best outright bet is the 11/8 available on the visitors winning with -1 on the handicap.

Score prediction: Arsenal 0-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Arsenal v Manchester City: Best bets

Phil Foden to have 1+ assists at 7/2

Aguero to assist Mahrez and Mahrez to assist Aguero at 80/1

Arsenal v Manchester City: Opta facts

• Arsenal and Manchester City last met in the League Cup in the 2018 final, with City winning 3-0. The Gunners have lost their last three League Cup matches against City, also losing in the quarter-finals in both 2009/10 and 2011/12.
• Manchester City have won their last three away matches against Arsenal, all in the Premier League. City are the only team to win three consecutive away games against the Gunners at the Emirates, while the last team to win four consecutive away matches against Arsenal were Chelsea between 1960 and 1965 (six in a row).
• Arsenal have been eliminated from six of their last eight League Cup quarter-finals, reaching the semi-final in 2010/11 and 2017/18 in this run. This is the Gunners’ 29th appearance at this stage, more than any other club.
• Manchester City have progressed from/won the final in each of their last 17 League Cup ties and haven’t lost a League Cup match in London since December 2003 (1-3 vs Spurs), winning six and drawing two since, winning on penalties in the two draws.

Brentford v Newcastle betting tips

• 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
• Match odds: Home 7/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 19/10

It feels strange seeing a team from the Sky Bet Championship going into a contest against Premier League opposition as the favourites, but in this case it seems justified as eye-catching Brentford take on a Newcastle side who have struggled in recent weeks.

Steve Bruce's side were hammered 5-2 by Leeds in their last away game before a 1-1 draw at home to relegation candidates Fulham at the weekend. A questionable penalty and red card decision helped them to a point but it was another showing that failed to inspire.

Newcastle should probably be at least four places lower in the Premier League table based on performance. Only Burnley, Sheffield United and West Brom take fewer shots per game while the Baggies narrowly beat them for average shots conceded.

Dropping down a division and only three teams better Brentford for shots taken while defensively they are sound. They sit 23rd out of 24 for shots conceded and they hold a very strong record at the back. Infogol's model based on performance has the Bees buzzing at the top and they can carry their momentum into this contest.

Brentford's best price of 6/4 is just too big considering the contrasting form of both sides. While we can say that these performances are coming in different divisions, we can confidently argue that Brentford are a better team and have recovered following a slow-ish start.

In fact, Thomas Frank's men are enjoying a 13-game unbeaten run. While they have opted for changes in recent rounds, this stage of the competition combined with the opposition should mean a strong XI which will result in their usual attacking football; a style unfazed by any opponent.

While the outright price is good enough, the 6/1 on Mathias Jensen grabbing at least one assist in a game where the Bees can score a couple is also worth a play. The midfielder has five on his tally this season and is trusted in set-piece situations.

A more regular starting role has contributed to that. Not only are corners a threat but his ability to pick out a pass during open play will cause problems for the Newcastle defence, particularly when you look at the impact of Brentford's forward line led by former Magpies man Ivan Toney - he has 16 goals in 20 appearances.

Brentford caught the eye with their attacking football last season and were fancied by many to secure promotion. That didn't happen but, even with key players departing, they have continued to perform and can secure a surprise appearance in the semi-finals of this competition.

Score prediction: Brentford 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Brentford v Newcastle: Best bets

Brentford to beat Newcastle at 6/4

Mathias Jensen to assist 1+ goals at 6/1

Brentford v Newcastle: Opta facts

• The last meeting between Brentford and Newcastle was in the 2016/17 season in the Championship, with the Magpies winning both games that season.
• The only previous League Cup encounter between Brentford and Newcastle was in September 2001 at St James’ Park, with Newcastle winning 4-1 in extra-time and Craig Bellamy scoring a hat-trick during the extra-time period.
• This is Brentford’s first ever League Cup quarter-final in their 153rd match in the competition, which is the most matches played before playing in their first ever quarter-final match in the competition’s history. The previous most was Bournemouth, whose first quarter-final was in their 147th game in the competition.
• Newcastle United have been eliminated in seven of their eight League Cup quarter-finals, progressing just once back in the 1975/76 season versus Notts County. Among the 30 teams to have competed in more than five League Cup quarter-finals, Newcastle have been eliminated in the highest percentage of those (7/8, 87.5%).
• Newcastle United could become the first top-flight club to eliminate non-top-flight opposition in the second, third & fourth rounds and the quarter-final of the League Cup since Norwich City in 1984/85, who went on to win the competition with current Magpies boss Steve Bruce playing in every League Cup match for the Canaries that season.

Odds correct at 1230 GMT (21/12/20)

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