Carabao Cup outright tips: Best bets and preview for 2024/25 season
Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1pt e.w. Manchester United to win the Carabao Cup at 14/1 (bet365 1,2 1/2)
1pt e.w. Brighton to win the Carabao Cup at 25/1 (General 1,2 1/2)
Anyone who tells you they have a clear formula for picking out the winner of the Carabao Cup - or any domestic cup competition for that matter - is a liar.
It doesn't make it impossible to create theories of course, but you need a bit of luck in something that is drawn out at random.
Luck must side with the right attitude in an age where anything other than league football is viewed as a hindrance. That's not a bad thing though - finding the managers who take this seriously can aid in the quest to navigate the outright market.
So that's how I'm approaching this. Squad depth and attitudes are the driving factors behind my picks. As with anything in betting, I'll settle for any bit of luck I can too.
I have no interest in Manchester City who are as short as 5/2 in places - I rarely do. This is particularly the case when their previously firm grip on this competition has loosened a lot - they've failed to win any of the previous three editions.
Ten Hag targets trophies
Whenever criticism is thrown the way of Erik ten Hag - and that is happening on a more regular basis - he will point to the two trophies he has guided MANCHESTER UNITED to during his spell at Old Trafford.
Is that the wrong thing to do? Absolutely not. It's incredibly hard to actually win a trophy given how few are available and it's clear that this is viewed as a measurement of success for him and his team.
They won this competition when backed to do so at 16/1 in 22/23, finishing as runners-up in the FA Cup in the same season before going on to win it the following year.
You can get them at 14/1 to WIN THE CARABAO CUP once again. I'm more than happy to get involved with it.
While disregarded by many as an inconvenience, others view it as a good chance to add silverware to the cabinet. We can firmly put the United boss in the latter category.
"Two trophies in two years is not bad," was the line Ten Hag used to hit back at journalists a couple of months ago.
"Three finals in two years is not bad. If they don’t want me, then I go somewhere else to win trophies because that is what I do."
I suppose you can't argue with that given his track record in the Netherlands, but it is also fair to look at a lack of consistent improvement in the Premier League.
That's irrelevant here though and we have a manager serious about cup competitions handling a squad with enough quality and depth to deal with it.
The third round gives them a contest against Barnsley at home and then it's down to the draw which has been fortunate to them in Ten Hag's time in charge.
He has four domestic cups on his CV, alongside a further two appearances in a final. With plenty of the focus likely to be on United's struggle for progression, the Carabao Cup will be seen as further ammunition to fire back at the criticism.
Brighton worth backing
It's usually one of the 'big six' who win this competition. Squad depth comes to the fore and some take it far more seriously when it becomes clear there's an opportunity for a multi-trophy season.
BRIGHTON have never won a top-level domestic cup - the closest they've been was the 1983 FA Cup final where they were beaten by Manchester United - but they have every chance under Fabian Hürzeler's guidance.
The 25/1 for them to WIN THE CARABAO CUP is a bet worth consideration.
Hürzeler has shown little issue, in the early stages at least, in adapting to the Premier League following a campaign in which he led St. Pauli to the 2. Bundesliga title.
Prior to the international break they gained seven points from a possible nine in the top flight - beating Everton and Manchester United before drawing at Arsenal - while they brushed past Sussex 'rivals' (a term used very loosely) Crawley in the last round.
The third round sees them host Wolves in a game they will view as winnable.
Albion are dealing with some injury issues, particularly in midfield, but there's plenty of rotation options for Hürzeler to play with.
That is particularly true in attack, with a number of names able to play a variety of positions in the forward line. It'll only continue to improve when those currently sidelined return to fitness.
The Carabao Cup doesn't carry the same level of 'risk' as the Premier League which should only serve to benefit a team with Brighton's style. An error won't be viewed as costly as it would if it led to them losing vital points.
And then we have Hürzeler's recent track record in domestic cups. Despite the promotion charge last season, St. Pauli reached the quarter-finals of the DFB-Pokal (the German cup), only eliminated on penalties by Fortuna Düsseldorf.
While there will be a desire to return to European competition, success in a domestic cup may have been high on a priority list when Hürzeler was appointed - this is a club who look like they're now ready to compete for silverware.
Odds correct at 1355 BST (12/09/24)
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