Euro 2020: Can Spain win the European Championship? xG analysis
When Spain's golden generation won one World Cup and two European Championships between 2008 and 2012, they reached the pinnacle of international football without conceding a single goal in a knockout match.
They smothered teams with possession, patiently waiting for the perfect pass. 1-0 to Spain became a familiar scoreline, Portugal, Paraguay, Germany and the Netherlands were all swept aside this way as the Spaniards lifted the 2010 World Cup.
At Euro 2020 though there has been a drastic shift. After a string of disappointing tournaments La Furia Roja have ripped up their own playbook. Sure they are still dominating possession, but it is hardly passing opponents into submission. Instead their matches are far more open, with opportunities aplenty for both sides.
What’s more, the numbers suggest their switch is working. According to Infogol, Spain are behind only England as favourites to win Euro 2020.
Spain flirted with early elimination after a 0-0 stalemate with Sweden and a 1-1 draw with Poland in their first two matches. Those scorelines though hide some frankly astonishing expected goals data.
Luis Enrique’s team created a combined xG of 6.07 across those two games, and yet - despite having 10 attempts on target - Alvaro Morata’s early opener against Poland was the only time they found the net.
Their final group game against surprise leaders Slovakia was a must win. Enrique stuck with his tactical approach and this time his side came good - Spain 5-0 Slovakia.
In the round of 16 against Croatia, Spain recovered from a bizarre own goal and a barnstorming fightback to reach the Euro 2020 quarter-finals with a dramatic 5-3 extra-time victory.
Croatia substitutes Mislav Orsic and Mario Pasalic scored twice in the final five minutes to come back from 3-1 down and force extra time, but Spain rallied with the much-maligned Morata and Mikel Oyarzabal settling the contest.
Going forward, Spain seem to have found the right gear. After a slow start, La Roja have racked up 7.99 xGF in their past two games and scored 10 times.
When we break that down, it equates to 3.52 xGF per game, an incredible statistic. Essentially, on average, Spain should have netted at least three goals in every game at the Euros so far.
They have created 19 non-penalty big chances (0.35 xG or greater) too, so they are not simply racking up their total by taking shots from distance. They are carving out consistent, genuine scoring opportunities.
These chances usually fall to talisman Morata. The Juventus forward has scored two at Euro 2020 from chances equating to 4.46 xG, and while some shout ‘wasteful finishing’, the fact he is always in the right place at the right time should give Spain supporters confidence.
Morata, playing in an attack-minded Spain side, is averaging a tournament leading 1.21 xG per 95 minutes, meaning he gets on the end of 3.5 big chances per game.
In Serie A last season, the 28-year-old netted 11 goals from an xG of 11.04. The former Chelsea forward is far more consistent than he is given credit for. If he can rekindle his form, Spain are almost guaranteed a goal from him per match.
Hang on though, let’s not hand the trophy over just yet, because for all of Spain’s successes going forward, there are plenty of issues at the back.
Croatia racked up 3.05 xG in the last round and in total Spain have allowed 5.63 xGA, at an average of 1.40 xGA per game.
While that doesn't seem a lot - especially when they are producing more than double that in attack - it is concerning that this total has come from just 24 shots, meaning that the average shot they concede has an xG of 0.23 - a huge number.
In fact, 42% of the chances they concede are classified as 'big chances', meaning that when their opponents do get an opening, there is a high probability of it resulting in a goal.
Since the turn of the millennium, Spain have conceded seven knockout goals at the Euros. Three of them were against Croatia last week.
They’ll face Switzerland on Friday for a place in the semi-finals in what’s sure to be an intriguing affair. The Swiss, like Spain, offer an attacking threat having averaged 1.79 xGF per game in the tournament. But they’re also leaky at the back and have allowed over 2.5 xGA.
For half a decade Spain ruled the footballing world through sheer dominance and control thanks to a midfield core of Andres Iniesta, Cesc Fabregas, Xavi and Sergio Busquets. If Spain are to return to those heights it will be through a different approach.
Forget solid platforms, it is all about outscoring your opponents. You net three, we’ll grab four. Spain 1-0 is a thing of the past.