Can Newcastle build towards the Champions League again? Or is the future alarmingly static?
It really wasn’t supposed to be this way.
Selling your soul to Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund comes at a price but you’re at least supposed to get success in return, yet at the quarter mark of the campaign and just past the three year anniversary of Mike Ashley’s sale Newcastle are stagnant again.
It’s a familiar feeling for Newcastle fans and not just in terms of progress in the Premier League, where hopes of returning to the Champions League look increasingly distant.
Off-field issues, spending restraints, and a general sense of unease have crept back into St James Park.
Eddie Howe has spoken ambiguously about his future amid a rumoured rift with the new sporting director Paul Mitchell, whose arrival – and the departure of Howe ally Amanda Staveley – has significantly rocked the boat.
Howe and Mitchell have supposedly cleared the air since then, but after an empty summer window and amid waning performances it’s hard to believe a few meetings have ended their power struggle.
The facts make for grim reading, or at least, grim in comparison to the giddy hopes of the city after Newcastle came fourth in 2022/23 and appeared destined to use their unparalleled wealth to join the elite.
Not a single first-team player arrived in the summer. Worse, two excellent young players Elliot Anderson and Yankuba Minteh were sold so that Newcastle were not penalised by the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR); the pesky legislation that has so far locked the Saudi billions out of the club.
And if Newcastle have no more money to spend than anyone else, well, it’s hard to know what fans are supposed to get excited about.
Five league games without a win leaves Howe’s side 12th in the Premier League table and more likely to be scrapping for a Europa Conference League spot than take the next step towards the top level.
Aston Villa suddenly look miles ahead of them, as do Chelsea following a ridiculous transfer spend that could yet come back to bite them, while Manchester United are at the beginning of a new cycle with Ruben Amorim.
Chuck in the top three, unassailable for now, and Newcastle’s natural place is seventh or eighth, depending on how Tottenham evolve under Ange Postecoglou.
And so Newcastle, all of a sudden, are trapped in purgatory.
Or maybe that’s just the feeling you get when you’re haunted by the past. The dark days of Ashley still hang heavy over this club and it’s easy to be drawn in by pessimism.
Stagnating for 20 years, even briefly standing still now spreads panic.
Because the more positive read is that Newcastle finished a mere eight points off fourth last season and six off fifth, which could be a Champions League spot this season, which they did despite Sandro Tonali’s suspension and the Premier League’s largest injury list.
Tonali’s back, injuries aren’t as bad so far, and Newcastle are still only five points off Chelsea in fifth. Had they managed to bring Marc Guehi in, and if they’d been able to play Minteh on that problem right side, there’s every chance Howe’s side would look back on track.
Nevertheless nine goals scored in nine games is a worry, and beating an entirely second-string Chelsea in the Carabao Cup in midweek really doesn’t count towards redressing the balance.
Howe might be on the verge of departing, or he might be on the verge of another big upswing. The misfiring front line could further congeal as relationships sour off the field, or Alexander Isak and Harvey Barnes could take off.
Newcastle might win three in a row and re-enter the top four/five race, or they might lose against Arsenal on Saturday and ring the crisis bell.
And that, right there, is the problem. It’s not stagnation, not yet.
But hovering in the liminal space, the future unknown and hanging in the balance? That is the sign of a middling Premier League side, not a super-club in waiting.
Unless PSR collapses under the weight of various challenges on the horizon, Newcastle’s future – though not as bleak as it used to be – looks alarmingly static.
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