Can Luton stay up and are they better than people think?

By Ninad Barbadikar

Football

Thu October 26, 2023 · 1y ago

The Premier League has just completed gameweek nine, which means we now have a decent sample size to analyse performances, underlying data and to make reasonable claims about how good (or bad) teams really are.

When the season began, the bookmakers (and let's be honest, most of us) were certain Sheffield United and Luton would be heading straight back to the Sky Bet Championship, with it considered something of a bunfight for that final spot.

So, based on what we have seen so far, does that remain the case?

Bunfight at the bottom

While the battle for European spots is looking exciting, the mood at the other end is in complete contrast.

The bottom six have collectively won just six times, with Bournemouth and Sheffield United both yet to taste victory.

Blades not cut out for top flight

Paul Heckingbottom's Sheffield United are almost certainly going to go down with what is, at best, a top-end Championship team.

They have shown grit and character to make life difficult for some of the big teams but in failing to perform or pick up points against the poorer ones, there are few signs that they can make any kind of fist of things.

Lowest expected goals for (xGF) and highest expected goals against (xGA) totals, and bottom of the table.

Their story in a nutshell.

Cherries ripe for relegation?

Bournemouth's decision to replace Gary O'Neil with Andoni Iraola is not going as well as they would have hoped.

No wins and three points following the fourth highest net spend in the summer.

They have had a particularly tough set of opening fixtures, it must be said, and Iraola is likely a coach who requires time to have a real impact, but a winless opening 10 games mean he is unlikely to get that.

An awful lot hinges on Saturday's crunch clash against Burnley.

Stubborn Kompany own worst enemy

Which brings us neatly on to Vincent Kompany.

Burnley shook the Championship with their style of play, however sticking to the same approach in the Premier League is proving costly.

Four points is all they have to show for a big spending summer. Yes, the Clarets boast the youngest squad in the league by average age at 24.7 but, by their manager's own admission, they must learn faster.

Arguably so should he; Burnley's - and their manager's - naivety is proving to be their downfall.

With just seven goals scored, the second lowest xGF created (5.82), second most goals conceded from open-play (17), three red cards already and the club's worst start for 135 years, it's all looking rather bleak.

Trust in Dyche

Unlike life for Burnley's old gaffer.

Sean Dyche and Everton look like they've found their rhythm after starting the season sluggishly - although the data always looked good.

Far apart from other relegation battlers in terms of underlying data, the Toffees are in the top 10 for xGF and xGA.

In Jarrad Branthwaite, they look to have found the perfect partner for James Tarkowski. In fit-again Dominic Calvert-Lewin they have a proven number nine.

If the 26-year-old can be kept fit and firing, relegation worries should be the last thing in the mind of Dyche.

Forest floundering?

Nottingham Forest could be in trouble this season.

Steve Cooper's side may have 10 points from nine, but the team is undoubtedly composed of quality individual players Cooper is failing to get the best from.

Last season, their xGD per90 of -0.66 was the second worst in the division and they were fortunate to stay up according to the underlying data. Putting together two decent unbeaten runs was enough then, but repeating that will be a serious challenge.

Far from convinced.

Can Luton stay in the Premier League?

With the relegation battle landscape being as it is, there is an opportunity for a newcomer like Luton to surprise us all and stay up.

Just above the relegation zone with five points, of the promoted sides they look to be the most assured in their own skin.

There is a clear game plan of stifling space for the opposition midfield before quickly getting the ball up the pitch to their more creative, dynamic players.

"We’re not going to be sexy, silky football. We can be direct," said Edwards at the start of the season.

And boy is that proving to be accurate so far.

Luton celebrate promotion to the Premier League

Luton have carried on the direct style of play that won them promotion against the odds. Last season's average possession? 46.2% and this season, that has dropped to 37.2. Which is to be expected.

More interesting is their direct speed of 1.99 m/s - only West Ham's possession sequences are faster.

And despite being one of the more passive sides in the league out of possession (PPDA - 16.8), Luton are fifth for high-turnovers generated (90).

PPDA - Number of opposition passes allowed outside of the pressing team's own defensive third, divided by the number of defensive actions by the pressing team outside of their own defensive third. A lower figure indicates a higher level of pressing, while a higher figure indicates a lower level of pressing.

Underpinning that approach are Edwards' tactics along with having players perfectly suited to executing the simple yet crucial elements on and off the ball.

Best of a bad bunch?

Familiar ideas, tactics and personnel will be key for the Hatters because the bottom of the Premier League barrel hasn't been this bad for a while - the Holy Grail of 38 points seems utterly irrelevant.

As other clubs wrestle with decisions over their managers, Edwards seems to have all the confidence from both the club hierarchy and fanbase.

In many ways, Luton are the most stable and best equipped to take on the challenge of fighting survival.

Crucially they are also much better than they are being given credit for.

Morris brings a lot more than just goals.

Their three goals from open play have come from an xGF figure of 6.91, indicating a significant underperformance in this smaller sample of nine games.

The likes of Alfie Doughty and Carlton Morris are consistently producing strong underlying figures, fuelling the belief that Luton may not be so bad after all.

Doughty's delivery from set-pieces and open-play has been exceptional

Awkward opponents

Priced to be almost certain to go down by many firms at the start of the season, Luton's odds of relegation remain painfully short.

But, since starting with consecutive heavy defeats at Brighton and Chelsea, they have not lost by more than a single goal.

Take the 1-0 defeat against Tottenham at Kenilworth Road, for example.

Yes, Ange Postecoglou's side didn't convert their chances in a dominant first half where they had the lion's share of chances and threat created, but game state and dynamics changed when Spurs were reduced to 10 men.

Luton adjusted superbly and fine margins, including a disallowed goal, prevented them from securing a point.

Their most recent result, a 2-2 draw against Forest, sums up everything about them as a team.

Most sides would have gone on to a routine defeat after conceding a second goal beyond the hour mark, but Luton's persistence paid off with two late, late goals.

These examples illustrate how close they have been to securing more points this season.

And the fact they have generated more xG than their opponent in four of their nine fixtures demonstrates that they are on the right track in terms of performances.

Meetings with Aston Villa and Liverpool come next, matches the Hatters would have dreamed of as last season's play-off final ticked towards a shootout.

No one expected them to be here, and no one ever expected them to stay.

But they really might just be the best of a particularly bad bunch.

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