Can Liverpool make top four after Real Madrid thrashing?

By Sam McGuire

Football

Sun February 26, 2023 · 2y ago

It was another famous European night at Anfield, just not in the way many had expected.

Liverpool, buoyed by back-to-back wins in the Premier League, started like a team with a score to settle.

They had the lead inside four minutes after Darwin Nunez nonchalantly backheeled the ball past Thibaut Courtois. Mohamed Salah doubled it with 14 minutes on the clock, taking advantage of an unusual error by the
Belgian keeper to pass the ball into an empty goal. Real Madrid were on the ropes.

Inside the opening 25 minutes, the visitors could’ve quite easily found themselves 4-1 behind. That isn’t an exaggeration, either.

But this is Real Madrid in the Champions League. If you don’t capitalise on the opportunities you have, they will find a way to punish you. They always do.

It wasn’t ever a 5-2 match. Liverpool actually created better chances, 'winning' the expected goals battle (xG: LIV 2.21-1.59 RMA). But while the Reds were wasteful, Los Blancos were ruthless.

Carlo Ancelotti’s got control of the midfield and from then on it was fairly easy for them. This has been a theme throughout the season for Klopp’s side.

The Merseysiders have a storied history in the European Cup and are famed for their comebacks, but this feels different. For starters, the second leg isn’t at Anfield. Liverpool need to go away to Madrid and score four unanswered goals to progress or three to take it to extra time.

This is a team that have conceded three or more goals in five of the 13 matches they have played since the World Cup. They have only scored three or more in one of those games - the 3-1 win over Aston Villa.

In his post-match press conference, Jurgen Klopp tried his best to lift the mood and turn doubters into believers, but even he seemed defeated.

“I think Carlo [Ancelotti] thinks the tie is over and I think it as well in the moment." Klopp said.

“But in three weeks or the closer you get to the game the bigger our chances become. Tonight 5-2 and everyone saw they are pretty good in counterattacking and we have to go there and take some risks to score three goals.

"That could be tricky. It is not even in my mind. We will go there and try to win the game. I don’t know if it is possible but we will see.”

It isn’t in this team’s nature to give up and they will give it a go at the Santiago Bernabeu in three weeks time. But the loss at Anfield might help them refocus their efforts in the Premier League.

Premier League top four finish (odds via Sky Bet)

Manchester Utd - 1/9
Liverpool - 6/4
Newcastle - 6/4
Tottenham - 7/4
Brighton - 10/1
Chelsea - 25/1

Odds correct at 1130 BST (22/02/23)

Despite their inconsistent form, the Reds are only seven points off of Tottenham Hotspur in fourth with two games in hand. They are out of the FA Cup and with a Champions League run looking unlikely, their sole focus can be an assault on the top four.

But Klopp is going to have to make changes if his team are to have any chance.

Liverpool's right-side issue

Against Real, the right-side was once again exposed.

Granted, the 14-times European champions were always going to target that flank given Vinicius Junior is on that side and Karim Benzema likes to drift out to that flank, but Liverpool made it easy for the visitors.

Alexander-Arnold, Salah and Henderson struck up quite the understanding on the right for the Reds and it was integral to their success. Now it lacks balance and the examples below really emphasise this.

Bajcetic, on the left side of the pitch, plays a big switch to Salah on the right. Henderson made a dart forward to occupy Antonio Rudiger and this allows the Liverpool No11 a one-versus-one situation against Nacho.

Alexander-Arnold makes an underlapping run to support Salah and to drag Luka Modric over into the channel.

But then we see the issue.

There is no player in red centrally. If the cross is shanked or easily blocked, Real Madrid have multiple players in positions to pick up the second ball. Eduardo Camavinga, Fede Valverde and Vinicius can all get to that area highlighted in red before anyone from the home team.

There is then a need for Fabinho to vacate his position centrally to cover the right-hand side. He’s never been the best at covering large spaces so forcing him to do so with these tactics is asking for trouble.

Not only is it an issue during defensive transitions but it is also problematic when trying to build out from the back.

Here, Alexander-Arnold has received a pass off of Joe Gomez and he doesn’t really have a progressive pass on. Henderson has bombed on and left a void in that part of the pitch.

The right-back plays a ball to Fabinho that narrowly misses Vinicius and Benzema. The Brazilian is immediately pressed by Camavinga and plays a first-time pass all the way back to Alisson, allowing the visitors to reset.

This has plagued Liverpool all season. They can no longer dictate the space they play in and this makes it near impossible to control matches. The hybrid right-sided-midfielder-cum-fourth-attacker role requires legs in midfield. It is finely balanced and the Reds have failed to strike it consistently at any stage this campaign.

If Fabinho darts into the space and looks to drive forward in possession, then Bajcetic needs to drop to cover. There are a lot of moving parts to this tactic and the risk might not be worth the reward.

If there are no easy passes on for Alexander-Arnold then he starts to force the issue. When he is constantly going long and Liverpool aren’t set to press the opposition and pick up those second balls, then it just creates transitional situations for teams and the Reds are perpetually caught out.

This is the biggest issue for Klopp and one that he is going to have to address if Liverpool are to have any success during this campaign.

Klopp should commit to double pivot

The most obvious solution would be to revert back to a double pivot. Arguably their best defensive performance of the season was at home to Manchester City when the hosts adopted a 4-4-2 shape.

Pep Guardiola’s side finished with an xG total of just 1.14 having been limited to low-value efforts throughout the match. Thiago and Fabinho knew where they had to be. They weren’t having to cover multiple positions in a fluid system.

Liverpool have the players to deploy a 4-4-2. They are perhaps ideally suited to that system with a mid-block press given they look so dangerous on the break.

The Reds don’t have issues creating chances so that won’t be a concern for Klopp. If they are going to improve defensively then they need a solid base. They need to stop being torn to pieces during transitions and the best way to do that is to shore up the midfield.

A double pivot is almost being used anyway. Liverpool just need to commit to it so there are no empty spaces, as seen above against Madrid and many other teams this year, so players know exactly where they should be at all times.

Get the spacing sorted and it will be much easier to control every element of a game again.

A clear focus

A 5-2 loss can never be viewed as a blessing but it does make things easier for Klopp now. There are no distractions. Everything can now be geared towards getting Champions League football again next season. Their eggs, not necessarily by choice, are all in one basket.

It isn’t too dissimilar to Klopp’s first season at Anfield. The Europa League run had an impact on league form and the Reds ultimately sacrificed their top-four push. Liverpool finished eighth that season, six points off of fourth-placed Manchester City.

However, due to their superior goal difference, seven points would’ve been needed to claim a Champions League spot. What is often forgotten about that season is that Liverpool took just six points from their final five matches.

Just nine days after their memorable 4-3 win over Borussia Dortmund, the Reds were pegged back at Anfield in a draw with Newcastle despite taking a 2-0 lead. A couple of days later, they lost in the first leg of the Europa League semi-final against Villarreal before making wholesale changes for the Premier League game versus Swansea City.

That starting XI included Danny Ward, Brad Smith, Sheyi Ojo, Pedro Chirivrella, Kevin Stewart and Jordon Ibe. Obviously, a weakened Liverpool XI now wouldn’t be anywhere near as extreme as that but given the injuries the team have racked up this season, Klopp would be forced to rotate and the German tactician wouldn’t be taking those risks in a Champions League knockout game.

Klopp would likely commit to a European Cup run and sacrifice the Premier League campaign, as he did during the 2015/16 campaign. The risk with that is there are fewer opportunities to right the wrongs, as evidenced by last night.

Liverpool have 16 matches left in the Premier League this season. There are 48 points up for grabs and they are currently just seven off where they want to be. Given everyone else is inconsistent this season too, a run of positive results could catapult them into the top four in a matter of weeks.

During the 2020/21 campaign, the Reds finished the season with eight wins and two draws from their final 10. After going out of the Champions League to Real Madrid, they took 17 points from the 21 on offer to claim an unlikely third-placed finish.

They knew what they had to do and were allowed to focus on doing it.

A repeat of that could see Liverpool salvage this season. Klopp nearly has a full team at his disposal for the first time this season. It could well turn out to be the perfect storm, but if he doesn't get the tactics right, there are no solid foundations.

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