Can Jesse Marsch keep Leeds in the Premier League?
What a cruel, capricious sport we love.
Despite Burnley's recent upturn in form, Leeds fans must surely have thought that gaining 11 points from five games was enough to secure their position in next season's Premier League.
Just one weekend later, Jesse Marsch's side are the favourites to be relegated in both the bookmakers' prices (5/4) and Infogol's probabilities (41.8%) — sitting two points ahead of Everton in 17th place having played a game more.
Premier League relegation odds (via Sky Bet)
- 5/4 - Leeds
- 15/8 - Everton
- 9/4 - Burnley
Odds correct at 1615 (03/05/22)
A 4-0 defeat at the hands of Manchester City is hardly unexpected, either. A team that is challenging for the title facing a candidate for the drop is a match-up that most would have confidence in picking a winner.
Instead, it is the performance of other clubs that has Leeds marching towards the second tier, with Burnley's surprise turnaround at Watford and Everton's unlikely victory against Chelsea plunging them into panic.
Jesse doing just fine
It's difficult to criticise Marsch as Leeds fall back to the fight, however. He has brought some stability to the complete chaos that his predecessor proactively produced.
We can only wonder if Marcelo Bielsa was replaced too soon, key injuries and very tough fixtures undoubtedly contributing to an ousting that still stings the fanbase, but it was a perfectly chosen spot for the American to take charge.
Leeds faced opponents with an average position of 14.3 on Infogol's expected goals (xG) table prior to the loss to City on Saturday, taking advantage of a weak schedule in Marsch's opening games.
There is a little concern when looking at the underlying numbers, though — mainly as an attacking unit.
Leeds failed to make the most out of chances created against two of the worst defensive teams in the league, losing 1-0 to Leicester and needing a late goal in an unnecessarily nervy win against Norwich. When they do fashion scoring opportunities, they must take them.
Even the three goals and high xG total against Wolves (3.29) has the caveat of playing against 10 men for an extended period. The Yorkshire side were also two goals down for much of the game.
In their other five games under Marsch, Leeds have averaged just 0.89 expected goals for (xGF) per game.
Some success with a more pragmatic approach does add another dimension to Leeds, which has clearly helped them against teams of a similar level, but they now face Arsenal and Chelsea in the next two matches, before playing Brighton and Brentford to finish out the campaign.
Marsch's current course is enough to suggest that Leeds have a sustainable Premier League level to them in a 38-game season.
This battle, however, is only four matches long.
What are Leeds' remaining fixtures?
- Sunday, May 8: Arsenal (A)
- Wednesday, May 11: Chelsea (H)
- Sunday, May 15: Brighton (H)
- Sunday, May 22: Brentford (A)
Chaos is a ladder
With the indispensable Kalvin Phillips back in the fold, it might pay to reintroduce the type of chaos that the Bielsa-era provided.
Defensive lessons have obviously been learned in Marsch's tenure, even in the absence of Phillips, with Leeds averaging 1.27 expected goals against (xGA) per game before the City match at the weekend.
It's a tricky situation to be in when considering the improvements their direct rivals for relegation have made. Everton's result at the weekend was quite possibly a byproduct of embracing 'shithousery', whereas Burnley's bump is due to a new-found attacking approach.
Given the tough fixtures to come — and the desperate need for points — now might be the time to return to treating chaos as a ladder rather than the pit it became.
Leeds have the chance to try climbing the ladder amid chaos again, a risky shift that has worked before. They're on the brink of the greatest fall, though, what else is there?
"Only the ladder is real. The climb is all there is."