Free betting tips and match preview: Sky Bet Championship - Fulham v Brentford
It's a huge game in the Sky Bet Championship promotion race. Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets for Fulham v Brentford.
Recommended bets
1pt Brentford (-1 handicap) to win at 19/4
1pt Ethan Pinnock to have 1+ shots on target at 6/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Fulham v Brentford
- 1945 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Football
A huge match at this point in the season. Fulham welcome local rivals Brentford to Craven Cottage with both sides chasing promotion to the Premier League.
The hosts currently provide the main threat to Leeds and West Brom in the top-two but a win for Brentford, and victories for those currently occupying the automatic promotion spots over the weekend, will likely bring an end to the race for those places in the table.
It becomes about game-swings at this point as opposed to points. Defeat could leave Fulham needing to find four more wins than Leeds and West Brom with just eight games remaining. That is just too much to do at this point in the campaign.
For Brentford, they're battling for that third spot and 'top seed' in the play-offs. Prior to that though, they're looking to ensure that they secure their place given the fact only five points separates them and Bristol City in seventh. Defeat here could see the chasing pack all close in.
There were concerns about Brentford's form given the fact they were enduring a five-game winless run but the 5-0 hammering of Sheffield Wednesday last time out indicates that they are back to their previous best.
Fulham boast the best home record in the division with 38 points gained from 19 fixtures. The five defeats in front of their own supporters though show that they are beatable at Craven Cottage and there is some value in backing the visitors.
The recent home wins for Scott Parker's side have come against teams they should be beating. Preston and Swansea are striving for consistency while Huddersfield and Middlesbrough are struggling at the other end of the table.
The losses to Barnsley and Reading, both of those coming in 2020, shows that they are prone to slipping up though and if you're not at your best, Brentford have proven time and time again that they will pounce.
The Bees are the division's top scorers for a reason. The forward trio of Said Benrahma, Ollie Watkins and Bryan Mbeumo have constantly been too much for opposition defences to cope with. It's why they've scored three or more goals in a game 13 times this season.
The outright price on both teams floating around the 17/10 mark highlights just how open this game could be. Rather than take that price, the value is backing the sides with goals aplenty and taking Brentford's -1 price at 19/4.
The previously mentioned trio will be the Bees' biggest threat on goal but the stand-out price in the shots on target market comes from defender Ethan Pinnock.
The 26-year-old has been a regular part of Thomas Frank's defence and netted in their recent away draw with Birmingham. Crucially, for this selection, he's posted one shot in four of his last five games.
What is an eye-catching figure that will make him a threat at set-pieces is the six aerials he won in each of his last three appearances. When it comes to attacking free-kicks and corners, Pinnock will be a man to target.
Sky Bet's 6/1 on the Brentford defender having one or more shots on target in this game looks good value based on the recent statistics. The best price of 16/1 on a goal anytime is also appealing, but the shorter-priced option still provides great odds.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-3 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 22/1)
Best bet: Brentford (-1 handicap) to win at 19/4
Best bet: Ethan Pinnock to have 1+ shots on target at 6/1
Opta facts
- Fulham have won just one of their last 18 home games against Brentford in all competitions (D10 L7), a 1-0 victory back in April 1990.
- Brentford are looking to complete a league double over Fulham for the first time since the 2014-15 season.
- This is the first London derby played on Friday the 13th in the Football League since August 2010, when Charlton Athletic won 3-1 away at Leyton Orient in League One.
- Fulham have registered 506 sequences of 10+ passes in open play this season, 153 more than the next highest side which is Brentford (353).
- Brentford have won just two of their last 10 away games in the Championship (D4 L4).
- Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic, who is the Championship’s leading scorer this season (23 goals), has won more points with his goals than any other player in the competition in 2019-20 (23 pts won).
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Odds correct as of 1415 GMT on 11/03/20
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