Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Everton to beat Burnley at 23/20 (Coral)
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 5/2 | Draw 12/5 | Away 11/10
On their way to relegation from the Premier League in 2022, Sean Dyche was deemed surplus to requirement at Burnley.
In his decade at Turf Moor, Dyche led the Clarets to two Premier League promotions but was sacked as they slumped towards the drop in 21/22.
In came Vincent Kompany tasked with simultaneously dismantling an ageing squad, reducing a top flight wage bill, seismically changing the playing style all while launching a Championship title challenge.
A haul of 101 points tells you everything you need to know, the issue is his Clarets side have not evolved enough to meet the demands of the Premier League. It is why Burnley have averaged 0.5pts per game.
What are the best bets?
The irony is, Burnley got rid of Dyche for a sexier brand of football. Sure, they have it now but it doesn’t look like it is going to guarantee them top flight status for another term.
Meanwhile, their predecessor would have his new club in the top half if it was not for off the field antics. Without the 10 point deduction, Everton would be in 10th.
The Toffees have won the same amount of games as Brighton, a club with European ambitions. For reference, the Seagulls went off shorter than Everton currently are in their trips to Wolves and Nottingham Forest.
EVERTON have only lost one of their last seven, taking 16 points over that period, backing them TO WIN here is where the value is.
BuildABet @ 13/1
- Everton to win
- Louis Jordan Beyer to be shown a card
- Abdoulaye Doucoure to score anytime
Abdoulaye Doucoure was quickly pulled in from the cold following Dyche’s arrival in Merseyside and the central midfielder has been a major cog in the side ever since.
Dyche quickly recognised his pressing potential and the midfielders pressure figures (664) dwarf anyone else in the top flight. The thing is, Doucoure is also adding goals to his games, he has three in his last four and looks a good price to continue this hot streak.
Team news
Charlie Taylor is suspended for the hosts and with a bit of a shortage in the left back department, Kompany may put right back Charlie Roberts there.
The hosts could also be without Jack Cork, Luca Koleosho, Josh Cullen and Aaron Ramsey through injury.
Jarrad Branthwaite and Idrissa Gueye are suspended on Saturday after the pair picked up their fifth cards of the season against Chelsea.
With Michael Keane also a doubt, Dyche may turn to Ben Godfrey in the heart of defence.
Predicted line-ups
Burnley: Trafford; Vitinho, O'Shea, Beyer, Roberts; Gudmundsson, Brownhill, Berge, Odobert; Amdouni, Rodriguez.
Everton: Pickford; Patterson, Tarkowski, Godfrey, Mykolenko; Harrison, Garner, Onana, McNeil; Doucoure; Calvert-Lewin
Match facts
- Burnley have won five of their eight Premier League home games against Everton (D1 L2), more victories than they’ve managed against any opponent at Turf Moor in the competition.
- Everton lost 3-2 at Burnley in their last Premier League meeting in April 2022. Only once have they lost consecutive games against the Clarets in the competition, doing so in the 2017-18 campaign.
- Burnley have earned four points from their last three Premier League games (W1 D1 L1), as many as they had in their first 13 this season (W1 D1 L11). They’re looking for consecutive top-flight home wins for the first time since April 2022 (a run of three), having lost nine in a row before beating Sheffield United 5-0 at the start of the month.
- Everton have won their last three Premier League games by an aggregate score of 6-0. They last won four in a row in December 2020 under Carlo Ancelotti, while they last did so without conceding in November 2002 under David Moyes (a run of five).
- Everton have won four of their last five Premier League away games (L1), as many as in their previous 42 (D15 L23). They’ve won each of their last three, last winning four in a row on the road in February 2021.
- Only Arsenal (15), Liverpool (15) and Man City (18) have conceded fewer Premier League goals than Everton (20) this season, while only Arsenal and Newcastle (6 each) have kept more clean sheets so far than the Toffees (5). Excluding penalties faced, Everton also have the third lowest xG against figure in the division (18.3) behind only Arsenal (11.6) and Man City (14.1).
- Burnley have scored a league-high share 31% of their Premier League goals this season from outside the box (5/16). However, Everton are one of three sides to have conceded 100% of their goals this season from inside the area (along with Manchester United and Tottenham).
- This will be Everton manager Sean Dyche’s first return to Turf Moor since leaving Burnley in April 2022. His only previous away game against the Clarets was a 2-2 draw with Watford in the Championship in August 2011 – his first ever game as a manager.
- 19-year-old Wilson Odobert has scored in two of his three Premier League starts for Burnley this season, netting in both games in which he’s played more than 45 minutes. Only Dwight McNeil (4) scored more goals as a teenager for Burnley in the competition than Odobert (2).
- Everton’s Abdoulaye Doucouré has applied 664 pressures on opposing players in the Premier League this season, over 100 more than any other player (Dominic Solanke next highest with 497). The Malian has scored 11 goals since Sean Dyche joined the Toffees earlier this year, accounting for 34% of his total in the Premier League (11/32).
Odds correct at 1000 GMT (15/12/23)
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