Manchester United can move to the top of the Premier League with a point at Burnley and Tom Carnduff is expecting a tight contest.
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Burnley v Manchester United
- 20:15 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 6/1 | Draw 18/5 | Away 4/9
A big opportunity for Manchester United to go top of the Premier League table as we approach the halfway point of the campaign. A point away at Burnley will do although they'll be expecting all three ahead of a huge clash with Liverpool at the weekend.
Only Leicester can boast a better away return than United this season but the Foxes have played two games more. Burnley may sit 16th in the home standings after seven games, but they are unbeaten in their last five at Turf Moor across all competitions and are entitled to be reasonably confident themselves.
Burnley also won the last meeting between these two, with Chris Wood and Jay Rodriguez on the scoresheet in a 2-0 victory at Old Trafford last January. They were 7/1 outsiders then, and we shouldn't be overly surprised to see an in-form Burnley side pick something up at a similar price here.
It's difficult to oppose United at the moment though. Previous criticism of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer remains valid in some areas but they have demonstrated that they can find a way to win football matches. I'm not convinced that they can maintain it in the long run and don't hold much interest in the 6/1 available on them winning the Premier League title but they should do the job here.
I'm not quite confident enough to dive into the outright market where they look plenty short anyway. In fact what we can perhaps expect, based on recent showings here, is a low-scoring game where the single goal could be the difference between the two sides.
Four of the last five home games for Burnley have seen under 2.5 goals land in 90 minutes. Manchester United's involvement always moves the overs line to odds-on, but they have also seen less than three goals in three of their last four. It's also historically a low-scoring fixture, with under 2.5 goals in four of their last five meetings. Six of their last eight have seen it, with the two games that didn't hit this criteria both finishing as 2-2 draws.
It's perhaps a cliche about Sean Dyche's teams but he likes to keep them organised and that leads to low-scoring games. They are 19th in the Premier League for games with over 2.5 goals - two thirds of their games have come in under the line.
It gets stronger when looking at league contests at Turf Moor. Only two of their seven have produced over 2.5, with their average match goals sitting at a league-low 1.7. United's away games have been high-scoring throughout the season but after a busy spell and with a potentially season-defining game to come, this should be all about getting the job done.
Score prediction: Burnley 0-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Burnley v Manchester United best bets
Opta facts
- Burnley won 2-0 at Old Trafford in their last Premier League meeting with Man Utd – they’ve not won consecutive league games against the Red Devils since September 1968.
- Having lost their first Premier League away game against Burnley 0-1 in August 2009, Man Utd have avoided defeat in each of their last five visits to Turf Moor (W4 D1), keeping a clean sheet each time.
- Burnley have scored just one goal in their six Premier League home games against Manchester United, compared to seven in six away games versus the Red Devils in the competition.
- Manchester United are the only side still unbeaten away from home in the Premier League this season, winning six of their seven games so far (D1). In total, the Red Devils are unbeaten in their last 14 league games on the road, their longest run since March 2010-January 2011 (16 games).
- Following victories against Wolves and Sheffield United, Burnley will have the opportunity to record three consecutive Premier League wins at Turf Moor for the first time since January 2017 (a run of five).
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (11/01/21)
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