Burnley v Manchester City free betting tips: Best bets and Premier League preview
Burnley welcome high-flying Manchester City to Turf Moor on Wednesday. Jake Pearson previews the match and picks out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Under 2.5 goals at 7/5 (Betfair)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Burnley v Manchester City
- 18:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 16/1 | Draw 6/1 | Away 1/6
Burnley arrived at Stamford Bridge on Sunday as one of the most in-form teams in the Premier League, having followed up their famous victory at Anfield with a facile success over Fulham in the FA Cup, as well as a 3-2 victory over high-flying Aston Villa last week, a game in which they twice came from behind.
It was a bit of a surprise then that Burnley were so poor against Chelsea, the west London side dominating the game from the first minute to the last, with James Tarkowski’s 94th-minute header the only attempt the Clarets managed all game.
The majority of Burnley’s good performances – 1-0 defeat of Liverpool aside – have come at Turf Moor, with Sean Dyche’s side losing just once at home since October. They are a tough nut to crack on their own patch, conceded just 10 goals there all season, the third best record in the league.
Scoring goals has been the problem. Their return of 13 this season is just one better than Sheffield United, and has been the major cause for their poor position in the table.
To make matters worse, top scorer Chris Wood limped off injured against Chelsea and is a doubt for the game against Manchester City, leaving Burnley short up top, with Jay Rodriguez shy of match fitness having just returned from a knee injury.
Things do not get much better either, with Manchester City arriving in town looking as formidable as ever, winning each of their last 12 matches in all competitions, eight in the league.
City have done a remarkable job of making their way to the top of the table without anyone really noticing, but this Manchester City is undoubtedly a different beast to the one of two or three years ago. Where City used to be ruthless, they are now efficient. Where they used to be free-scoring, they are now defensively solid.
Manchester City have conceded an astonishingly low total of just 13 goals this season, only Atlético Madrid across all five top European leagues have conceded fewer. John Stones has received plenty of praise for this, but the signing of Rúben Dias really has transformed them.
Their recent 1-0 victory over Sheffield United perfectly demonstrates their transformation into an efficient winning machine. After Gabriel Jesus opened the scoring on nine minutes, City were perfectly content to keep hold of the ball and protect their lead, limiting the Blades to just four shots all game.
Manchester City are good, very good in fact, but a price of 1/6 is not appealing irrelevant of the quality of team. For this reason then, it is worth looking elsewhere for a bet, and the overs/unders market is the one that catches the eye.
Burnley 3-36 City - that is the aggregate score for the last 10 meetings between these sides in all competitions.
The Clarets' bi-annual Manchester City thumping has become something of a mainstay in the modern game, and while it may be tempting to side with a similar outcome, circumstances are different this time around, and the bookmakers may have overreacted to recent meetings, pricing the match based on that, not current form.
These are the top two teams in the division in terms of under 2.5 goals, the outcome landing in 14 of 20 games each has played.
Obviously, context needs to be applied, but if the market were to be priced up based on that data, the fair odds of this game seeing under 2.5 goals would be 1.43 (around 2/5) as it has landed in 70% of all games these two have played.
You would also have made profit had you blindly backed under 2.5 goals in all games involving either this season.
There have been fewer than three goals in four of Burnley’s last five league matches, while three of City’s last five have also seen under three goals.
To add further credence to the selection, contrary to the belief that City are a steamrolling, goal-scoring juggernaut, on the road this term Pep Guardiola’s men have scored just 15 times. That is only the sixth-highest total in the division.
The fact that under 2.5 is the outsider of the two selections in this market is interesting, the fact it is as big as 7/5 in places makes it an unmissable opportunity.
Score prediction: Burnley 0-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
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