After making 10 points of profit from Burnley's win on Monday, Joe Rindl returns with a best bet for the Clarets' Premier League match with Leeds United.
Premier League betting tips: Burnley v Leeds
1pt Stuart Dallas to score anytime at 6/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Burnley’s 2-0 win over Fulham on Monday night confirmed the Clarets’ Premier League safety for another season.
It also gave me 27/10 and 7/1 winners in tipping Sean Dyche’s side to win outright and by a -1 handicap.
Last week I never truly worked out why Burnley were odds-against despite taking on a side who had picked up just one point from their past six games. But I guess that’s Burnley all over. You never fancy them, and yet each year they pick up just enough points from the teams below and around them to steer clear of any trouble.
They’re home match against Leeds could be a very Burnley sort of game. Problem is, with both sides seemingly having nothing to play for, it may also be one of those end of season nothing fixtures which are a nightmare to predict.
Leeds were sensational last weekend, crushing Tottenham’s Champions League hopes with an impressive 3-1 win at Elland Road.
It was a Marcelo Bielsa masterclass with high energy levels and attractive, end-to-end football.
The Yorkshire side also cemented their status as a big game team, becoming the first side to remain unbeaten at home in a Premier League season against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Spurs since West Ham in 2015-16.
But before you get ahead of yourselves Leeds fans, I’m sure you won’t need reminding that after your side's three game run taking five points off City, Liverpool and United at the end of April, you were outclassed in a 2-0 loss to Brighton the very next game.
I hope I’ve made it clear that on this occasion, the outrights are just too tough to call. If you really fancy Leeds at 5/4 or Burnley at 2/1 go ahead and back it. But for me, the value lies elsewhere.
I am half tempted by both teams to score which was trading at evens at the start of the week but is now at 4/7 and is only getting shorter.
A BTTS punt has come through in both Leeds and Burnley Premier League games on four of the last six occasions. But given the reverse fixture was a drab 1-0 Leeds win, I’m after much longer odds before I take a gamble.
Stuart Dallas the key man for Leeds
Instead, my value bet is on Leeds' STUART DALLAS TO SCORE ANYTIME at an incredible 6/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair). Of all the players who will be on the pitch at Turf Moor, only Patrick Bamford (15) and Chris Wood (12) would have scored more Premier League goals this season than Dallas’ eight.
The Northern Ireland international has been pushed back up to midfield, a move which has seen him net three in his past five, including the opener against Tottenham last time out. For him to be 6/1 is incredible.
Oh, and as Mason Greenwood, Jacob Murphy and Nathan Redmond can attest to, three of Burnley’s last four defeats have seen a winger score a goal.
Burnley v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Stuart Dallas to score anytime at 6/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Score prediction: Burnley 1-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct 1300 BST (13/05/21)
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