The Sky Bet Championship play-offs begin with Bournemouth hosting Brentford and Tom Carnduff has two best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Bournemouth v Brentford
2pts Under 9 corners at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts Brentford to take the most corners at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
The two favourites for promotion meet for their first leg tie on Monday, with the Bees the more fancied of the two to secure promotion at Wembley at the end of the month. Thomas Frank's side are 7/4 with Sky Bet to win the play-offs, while Bournemouth follow closely at 9/4.
That's despite the Cherries finishing the season with three consecutive losses - all of those coming to nil. You have to go back to March 3 for the last time Brentford lost a game. They have won six and drawn six of the 12 games that followed the loss at Carrow Road.
The worry in this first leg for Bournemouth will be how inconsistent their home form has been. They've failed to string together a winning run at home in 2021 and Brentford may want to target that. The price on an away win is going to be the most popular outright option in this one.
This is a tricky game to call, that is clear in both the odds on the night and in the promotion market. We don't know if Bournemouth's end to the season was them accepting they were in the play-offs or if it was a genuine halting of momentum - we will only find out which in this game.
There was also a very recent meeting between the two teams, with Brentford winning 1-0 here on April 24. Bryan Mbeumo's 77th minute strike separated the teams and it'll be interesting to see if that has any positive or negative effect on the outcome of this one.
Read Sporting Life's Sky Bet EFL play-offs outright previews
While there is some tempting value in the outright markets, the best play in this game based on recent form is to back UNDER 9 CORNERS at a price of 6/4. If you look at the last ten games for both teams, only twice did each see the match corner count hit double figures.
They're not high average corner sides anyway, this has been a theme throughout the season, but neither average hit eight over those last ten games. Bournemouth saw 7.8 corners per game on average while Brentford's was slightly lower at 7.7.
The corner count in that April meeting was 8 with Brentford taking more by a scoreline of 5-3. Recent form also suggests that BRENTFORD TO TAKE THE MOST CORNERS looks a good play - they have been regularly 'winning' the corner count as the season has progressed.
Looking at the most recent ten games, Brentford have taken more corners in nine of those. That includes games where there have only been low tallies of three or six corners. For Bournemouth, their ten-game run has seen them win the corner count on just three occasions.
In a game where the corner count could well be low, it's worth backing the visitors to have the majority of them. It may also be a contest which concludes in the Bees holding a lead for the second leg in West London.
Bournemouth v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 9 corners at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
- 2pts Brentford to take the most corners at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Bournemouth 0-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1700 BST (13/05/21)
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