Free betting tips and match preview: Premier League - Manchester United v Chelsea
The weekend rounds off with two sides in the battle for the Premier League top-four meeting. Tom Carnduff has a stats-based bet.
Recommended bets
2pts Cesar Azpilicueta to have 5+ tackles at 7/2
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Manchester United v Chelsea
- Old Trafford, Sunday 1630 BST, Sky Sports Main Event
An interesting clash between two sides who are seemingly doing their best to avoid finishing in the top-four this season.
The wheels have fallen off for Ole at Old Trafford, with his Manchester United side losing seven of their last nine games, which includes defeat to rivals Manchester City last time out.
Chelsea were held to a 2-2 draw by Burnley in a fiery contest at Stamford Bridge, but they do have another chance of qualification for the Champions League if they are to secure the Europa League title this season.
In fairness, the Europa League is probably the Blues' best chance of joining Europe's elite once again. A route consisting of PAOK, MOL Vidi, BATE Borisov, Malmo, Dynamo Kyiv, Slavia Prague, Eintracht Frankfurt and potentially Arsenal is preferable to trying to finish in the top-four over a 38-game season.
They will still try and put in a performance here as they look to cement their current position in the standings. Their opponents look like a side who have given up on this season, which has drawn criticism from a number of high-profile figures.
In a number of rants following defeat to City, former midfielder Roy Keane vented to another United legend in Gary Neville: "They've had one shot on target Gary, one shot on target at home.
"Look Gary, they're strolling across. Fred sells himself short here. He gives the ball away, which can happen, then compounds it. You do not let Sterling then get goalside of you. Why aren't people trying to stop the shot?
"If that's a player giving it their all, then Manchester United are in even more trouble than I think, and I think they're in huge trouble."
Chelsea have seemingly got over their blip of poor away form throughout the month of January and have won five of their seven on the road since then. The issue is that they have lost against those at the top end of the table.
It comes down to the attitude of this United squad though and it's clear that it isn't there at the moment. Their hopes of a finish in the top-four should all-but come to an end here.
Betting guide
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Both sides are priced at 7/4 for victory here but I'm more inclined to back the draw. As discussed above, Manchester United's attitude isn't in the right place and the performances that got Jose Mourinho sacked have now started to resurface. On the other hand, Chelsea have struggled for results away at other sides in the top-six and it's a big ask for victory here. A draw looks a reasonable price at 5/2.
Best bet: Cesar Azpilicueta to have 5+ tackles at 7/2
We're diving into the stats market for a best bet here and the value that stands out is in backing Chelsea skipper Cesar Azpilicueta to have five or more successful tackles in this game.
The right-back leads the way for tackles in this Chelsea side with a huge total of 98. That's well clear of the 73 posted by midfielder N'Golo Kante. The fact that he has attempted a total of 124 also shows how he wins the majority of his tackles. He also managed to post a huge tally of seven in their last away game at Liverpool and while that is 16/1 with Sky Bet, it's worth taking a couple off with a great price of 7/2 available for five or more.
United have speed in attack and will look to have plenty of chances given how they are playing in front of their own supporters. While City won the game on Wednesday, they had more successful tackles than United which shows how the hosts did have opportunities going forward.
Goalscorer bet: Eden Hazard to score anytime at 2/1
A shorter-priced selection but one that still holds value at 2/1. Eden Hazard is the star of this Chelsea side and his talent is known to all those across the world. So much so that he seems to take more about links to Real Madrid as opposed to his current club.
The winger has had direct involvement in 29 goals in 34 Premier League appearances this season, 16 of which have been his own strikes. He's now gone two games without scoring, even with an assist in the draw against Burnley, which is too long of a run for a player of his ability.
At 2/1, it's worth considering Hazard to strike anytime - either as a single or part of a RequestABet.
Opta facts
- Man Utd have won their last two Premier League home games against Chelsea – they’ve not beaten the Blues in three top-flight games in a row at Old Trafford since January 1957 under manager Matt Busby.
- Chelsea have won more Premier League games against Manchester United than any other side have in the competition (18).
- Man Utd have won three of their last six meetings with Chelsea in all competitions (D1 L2), having failed to win any of the previous 12 against them (D5 L7).
- Manchester United have lost three games against London sides in the Premier League this season (vs Tottenham, West Ham and Arsenal). They last lost against more different London sides in a single top-flight campaign back in 1989-90 (Arsenal, Charlton, Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Tottenham).
- Chelsea have lost their last six Premier League away games against fellow ‘big six’ sides, including all four this season by an aggregate score of 1-13. Indeed, they’re winless in eight such games (D2 L6) since beating Tottenham 2-1 at Wembley in August 2017.
- Chelsea haven’t gone three Premier League games without a win since September 2016. Following that previous run, the Blues went on a 13-game winning streak in the competition.
- Anthony Martial scored twice in the reverse fixture against Chelsea this season. The only Man Utd players to score home and away Premier League goals against the Blues in the same season are Wayne Rooney in 2011-12 and Eric Cantona in 1992-93.
- Chelsea’s N’Golo Kante has scored nine goals in all competitions in his four seasons in England, with Manchester United the only side he’s scored more than once against (2).
- Gonzalo Higuain’s four goals for Chelsea this season have been against teams currently in the bottom six. He’s played five games and 323 minutes against the top six sides in all competitions for the Blues, managing just one shot on target in those games.
- Eden Hazard has been directly involved in 10 of Chelsea’s 23 Premier League away league goals this season (5 goals, 5 assists), double that of any other player at the club (Ross Barkley 5).
- Chelsea’s six Premier League wins at Old Trafford have come under six different managers (Hoddle, Gullit, Ranieri, Mourinho, Ancelotti, Benitez), with five of those victories being the manager’s first such game at the ground with the Blues.
Odds correct at 1700 BST (26/04/19)