Can the Premier League top six stranglehold be broken this season?

Premier League top six preview: Alex Keble looks at why Arsenal, Chelsea & Man Utd could all miss out on a top six finish

By Alex Keble

Football

Thu August 01, 2019 · 5y ago

Leicester City’s Premier League title triumph in 2016 was an earthquake that shook the division’s super-clubs into action in a bid to ensure nothing like it could ever happen again. In the three seasons since then, six clubs have created an impenetrable mini-league at the top of the table: a ‘Big Six’ has looked set to dwarf the other 14 teams for years to come.

But all of a sudden their dominance is under threat. Mismanagement at Manchester United, Chelsea, and Arsenal has made each club vulnerable to slipping out of the top six, while Leicester City, Everton, and Wolverhampton Wanderers all look ready to step up.

The clubs at risk

Man Utd

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s run of nine points from the final eight games of the 2018/19 season suggests his apparent tactical acumen during late winter was a false dawn. In short, the club possess an inexperienced and frankly unqualified manager presiding over the worst Man Utd squad of the Premier League era. They still don’t have a director of football and, with transfer sagas still rumbling on while Paul Pogba and Romelu Lukaku look for an exit, United appear to be in a worse position than at the start of their ill-fated 2013/14 season under David Moyes.

But we don’t need to go that far back to see the club are in crisis. Ander Herrera’s ability to stitch the lines together was always critically under-valued at the club, and his exit along with dressing-room leaders Antonio Valencia, Pogba, and Lukaku will leave United notably weaker than this time a year ago, when Jose Mourinho was denied Harry Maguire – a player Ed Woodward is now embarrassingly pursuing at a much higher price. Repeating last year’s sixth-place finish and 66-point haul, then, will be very difficult, and that’s before taking into account that United actually over-achieved in 2018/19.

READ: What should Solskjaer do with Paul Pogba?

Taking out the ‘manager bounce’ 12-match run shortly after Solskjaer’s appointment United won 34 points from 26 matches. That is nowhere near good enough for the top six. A similar run of positive results to the one in January and February is unlikely, too, given that it was mostly reliant on want-away Pogba’s 16 goals and assists – and because, according to understat.com, United actually won eight ‘unexpected points’ during this sequence.

The clouds are gathering over Old Trafford for a full-scale disaster in 2019/20.

Chelsea

Frank Lampard’s appointment was a romantic choice, not a pragmatic one, even if Chelsea’s transfer ban means younger players will be needed more than usual in 2019/20. The likes of Mason Mount and Tammy Abraham might be talented, but they aren’t Big Six players just yet, leaving Chelsea with a squad low on quality.

With Eden Hazard in Madrid, Chelsea have lost the fulcrum of their attack. Their players must re-learn how to play without relying on a touch of genius on the left, without Hazard’s 31 league goals and assists (49% of their total last season). To do so without a goalscoring striker will be particularly difficult, especially given that Christian Pulisic will need time to adapt to English football. It is easy to envisage a string of low-scoring matches in which the wheels fall off for Chelsea’s inexperienced manager.

Chelsea may indeed have enough quality in defence and midfield to make Stamford Bridge a tough place to visit (restoring N’Golo Kante to defensive midfield will be transformative), leading to a top six finish, but it certainly isn’t guaranteed. Appointing a legendary player from the Mourinho era does not mean Roman Abramovich has given up on attempting to change Chelsea’s playing style; Lampard’s possession football and high pressing does not suit the squad at his disposal.

The last head coach met huge resistance, and while fans will be infinitely more patient with Lampard he does not have Hazard to bail him out when things get tough; when the schedule becomes gruelling; and when Chelsea’s dearth of attacking talent emboldens opponents to get creative.

Arsenal

Signing a highly-rated young winger for £72 million might be exciting news for Arsenal supporters, but it should worry them that, following the lengthy attempt to prise Wilfried Zaha from Crystal Palace, the club hierarchy are prioritising attack over defence. Certainly the Gunners could do with an upgrade on Alex Iwobi, but of greater concern should be central defence, left-back, and central midfield. Unless they find players in these three positions – and considering the entire budget has been blown on Nicolas Pepe, they surely won’t – Arsenal could be set for an implosion.

Laurent Koscielny’s tantrum has seriously upset the Arsenal dressing room, the club captain causing damage that Unai Emery may not be able to repair. Losing Aaron Ramsey had already significantly weakened the Arsenal first 11, and so Koscielny’s imminent departure could mean crisis for a squad already seriously lacking leadership.

Aside from a good striker partnership and a promising midfield axis in Matteo Guendhouzi and Lucas Torreira, there is nothing about this Arsenal team that suggests they have more talent – let alone direction or morale – than Leicester, Wolves, and Everton.

It was exceptional form at the Emirates that kept Arsenal in the top six last season, winning 45 points at home compared with 25 on their travels. Emery was able to grind out results on home soil, but with disaster in the air Arsenal’s opponents are likely to be more emboldened this year to attack in north London, approaching their visits to the Emirates in the same manner as their home games. Once an example is set (and Burnley, Spurs, and Aston Villa are all capable of taking points in Arsenal’s first three home games), the house of cards could topple.

Top six finish

1/5 Man Utd
1/4 Chelsea
4/11 Arsenal
100/30 Everton
7/2 Wolves
4/1 Leicester

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The clubs ready to gate-crash

Leicester City

In the 11 Premier League matches since Brendan Rodgers’ appointment Leicester amassed 20 points, the fifth most in the division and just one point off fourth. Following an uninterrupted summer of Rodgers’ tactical coaching they are undoubtedly top four contenders, boasting a young and talented first 11 that is arguably better, man-for-man, than Man Utd’s or Arsenal’s.

Youri Tielemans has been signed permanently from AS Monaco, an obvious coup, but potentially of equal importance is Ayoze Perez’s arrival from Newcastle. His versatility across the front and his goalscoring ability (12 last season) makes him ideal for Rodgers’ high-energy possession football, and makes him an ideal foil for Jamie Vardy.

Leicester defender Harry Maguire is being chased by Manchester United

Rodgers’ flexibility means Leicester have a variety of active and reactive methods to suit each opponent, and with the likes of James Maddison, Wilfried Ndidi, and Ben Chilwell they possess the sort of intelligent players that Rodgers can improve. His piercing, centre-focused tactics last season saw Maddison and Tielemans link cleverly with Jamie Vardy, a trio that will flourish in a full season together.

Should Leicester keep Harry Maguire, Leicester have everything they need to break into the top six – at the very least.

Everton

The only thing Everton really lacked last season – having conceded fewer goals (46) than Arsenal and Man Utd – was a goalscorer. In Moise Kean Marco Silva has the missing piece of the jigsaw, a young striker capable of converting the chances created by Richarlison and Gylfi Sigurdsson; the Toffees are ready to break into the top six.

Everton’s bad form came in two distinct patches in 2018/19, and on both occasions it was goals that they lacked, with Check Tosun clearly not good enough to be playing for an attractive possession side like Silva’s. If Kean hits the ground running then Everton will easily make up the gap to Wolves.

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Silva has never made it to a second season in charge of a Premier League club, and despite claims he is only able to succeed in short bursts the Everton manager’s track record suggests otherwise. He is an excellent tactician whose methods take time to fully implement, meaning a second summer with the squad will leave them more coherent and more consistent.

Wolves

Nuno Esperito Santo has not managed to strengthen the Wolves squad very much this summer beyond tying some loan players to permanent deals, but that doesn’t mean they won’t break the Big Six. Wolves finished nine points behind Man Utd in sixth last season and Solskjaer’s side might bridge that gap on their own.

The biggest barrier for Wolves is lacking a plan B. They always play the same system and generally the same 11, which over time should mean Premier League coaches are able to find ways to counteract their tactics. Greater variety is needed, although that is unlikely while defenders Raphael Nya and Jesus Vallejo remain their only new additions.

Wolves manager Nuno Espirito Santo will take his side into Europe this season