Football betting tips: Benfica v Arsenal
2pts BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals at Evens (Sky Bet)
1pt Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to score at 7/5 (Betfair)
Benfica v Arsenal
- Thursday, 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match Odds: Home 17/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 11/8
It hasn’t been the season many were expecting at Benfica.
After letting the Portuguese title slip through their fingers last season, Aguias re-appointed a fan-favourite manager in the summer, with Jorge Jesus returning to his native Portugal after an incredibly successful season at Flamengo that saw them win the Copa Libertadores and Brazil's Serie A.
His arrival was deemed a great bit of business, and Jesus was backed in the summer, as the club invested money from the sale of Ruben Dias in some experienced pro’s (Jan Vertonghen, Nicolas Otamendi) and some talented younger players (Darwin Nunez, Everton, Perinho), but the pressure is piling on the red half of Lisbon.
After failing to qualify for the Champions League proper, getting knocked out by PAOK, Benfica finished second in their Europa League group and domestic form has led to them slipping to fourth in the Primeira Liga, sitting 13 points behind archrivals Sporting Lisbon.
All of this means that this competition could prove to be their last opportunity to salvage a disappointing season, a similar position in which Arsenal find themselves in.
Jorge Jesus’s side have kept just two clean sheets in their last six games, and three in nine, so are defensively vulnerable, and that vulnerability was on full display in their Europa League group.
Benfica conceded nine times in their six games, and it is fair to say that Group D was hardly filled with European big-hitters, though they finished the group unbeaten.
While they may be gettable at the back, they sure do pack a punch in attack. They have averaged 2.33 expected goals for (xGF) per game in the Europa League so far, and domestically they rank as the second-best attacking team.
They should cause issues for Arsenal, but in an open game, it is likely that they will also allow plenty of opportunities.
There will be no home field advantage in this tie whatsoever, with both legs being played at neutral venues – this one in Rome at the Stadio Olimpico.
So, Arsenal make the relatively short trip to Italy for this game, and they will be on a high after one of their best attacking displays of the season according to expected goals.
They looked fluid against Leeds last Sunday, progressing through the lines well while also playing at speed in and around the box. Similar here would likely lead to another good display - and more goals.
Attack has been an area of struggle all season long for Mikel Arteta’s side, with the Gunners ranking in the bottom half of the Premier League based on xGF per game (1.42), but there are signs that a formula may have been found.
Over their last 10 league games Arsenal have averaged 1.67 xGF per game. In that time, only Manchester City (2.48), Manchester United (1.89), West Ham (1.78) and Liverpool (1.72) have posted better attacking numbers. The Gunners are improving.
And, given their league position of 10th – some eight points off the top four – I suspect they will be playing a strong team in this competition moving forward, with it looking like their only route to Champions League football.
They were drawn in a very easy group, and they steamrolled their way through it with minimal fuss, even when deploying weakened starting XI’s.
We can’t learn much from that when assessing this game, but while I think Arsenal are fair favourites to win the first leg, my favourite betting angle for the game in Rome is in the goals markets.
Given Benfica’s strong attack and Arsenal’s improving attacking process, as well as the vulnerabilities both teams possess defensively, I think we could be in for a goal-laden first leg.
BTTS AND OVER 2.5 GOALS makes great appeal given that I expect this game to be wide open, and can be backed at evens with Sky Bet.
A player who appears to be back in form is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who helped himself to a hat-trick at the weekend.
It is no coincidence that, when Arsenal’s attacking process improves, Aubameyang starts scoring. It’s simple, if the team isn’t creating chances, the striker isn’t going to score goals.
- Expected goals process is the rate at which teams create and concede chances
All those earlier in the season using Aubameyang’s new contract as the reason why his form dropped off were wrong. Aubameyang was just part of a poor attacking system that wasn't clicking.
For context, the Gabonese forward has played 20 games in the Premier League this season. In his first 10 games of the season he had gotten on the end of chances equating to 2.3 xG and was averaging 0.23 xG/95 (scored twice).
In the 10 games since, as Arsenal’s creative process has improved, Aubameyang has been on the end of chances worth 5.5 xG and averaged 0.63 xG/95 (scored seven). He wasn’t the problem; Arsenal’s attacking patterns were.
The club captain is now benefitting from a more attack-minded game plan, and from playing with more creative players, and given he is seeing plenty more good chances per game, he looks overpriced at 7/5 with Betfair to score anytime here.
I would back this line down to 11/10, though if for some reason he doesn’t start the game, cash it out and maybe look to get on at a bigger price with smaller stakes if he is introduced later on.
Score Prediction: Benfica 2-3 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds 18/1)
Benfica v Arsenal best bets
- 2pts BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals at Evens
- 1pt Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to score at 7/5
Posted at 1700 GMT on 17/02/21
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