Barnsley welcome Swansea in the first leg of their semi-final clash and Tom Carnduff is targeting a home goalscorer at big odds.
Football betting tips: Barnsley v Swansea
0.5pts Mads Andersen to score first at 66/1 (Betfred)
1pt Mads Andersen to score anytime at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Swansea would have seen a top-six finish as their minimum aim this season. For Barnsley, their involvement in the play-offs is the result of a clear recruitment policy that has drawn criticism, but under the right head coach, has paid off for them with an appearance here.
Finishing fifth is probably the best outcome for them too as they avoid Brentford or Bournemouth until the final - they are the two outright favourites for promotion. In Swansea, the Reds face a side who have struggled as the season has reached its conclusion and that will give them hope of progressing.
The play-offs is a case of who is better at avoiding defeat rather than winning games. For Barnsley, they have lost just three of their last 21 league games. For Swansea, they have lost six of their last eleven with their season concluding with one win from their final five.
Kick-off time: 20:15 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 11/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 13/5
Both teams will know the importance of their home leg. Whether this could be affected by the return of fans or not remains to be seen, but Barnsley and Swansea finished the campaign with 42 points gained from their 23 home games - just two points in the Swans' favour separates their away records.
Playing to your strengths is a key part of play-off success and the one intriguing battle across these two games will be set-piece situations. Barnsley have demonstrated throughout the season that they can strike from corners and free-kicks while Swansea have a good record of defending them.
Read Sporting Life's Sky Bet EFL play-offs outright previews
Only Cardiff (26) have scored from more set-pieces than Barnsley (17) this season, while Swansea's mere seven goals conceded in the division's lowest. The positive for the home side here is how strong their centre-backs are in the air and this may be an area which is targeted.
Mads Andersen and Michal Helik dominate when it comes to aerial duels won and they should see success across the two legs. Swansea duo Marc Guehi and Ryan Bennett combine for an average of 6.8 successful aerial duels per game - Barnsley's Andersen wins 6.7 on his own.
Combine Andersen and Helik and the figure comes out at 12.8. Add in Daryl Dike's average of 5.6 per game and we can see some of the problems that may emerge for Swansea across the two legs. It may be even more noticeable in the meeting at Oakwell.
With this in mind, and browsing the goalscorer markets with the prices on offer, it's worth targeting a Barnsley centre-back for a goal with a small stakes play on ANDERSEN TO SCORE FIRST at a huge 66/1.
The centre-back may only have one on his tally so far but he does see a shot in 57% of his Championship games this season - he's going at the same rate as Helik who has five so far. Andersen is underperforming his Infogol expected goals rate with his figure standing at 2.32 after the regular season.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
It's also worth noting how Helik has only managed one more shot on target than Andersen but his goalscoring record puts him at a considerable shorter price. With his first goalscorer odds huge, we're also having a 1pt play on ANDERSEN TO SCORE ANYTIME at 25/1.
What is interesting when it comes to potential Barnsley goals is that Swansea conceded against Cardiff from a long throw into the box - that was finished off by centre-back Aden Flint. Against Reading, tied with Barnsley for goals from set-pieces, they capitalised via a header from a cross into the box.
Andersen has a better rate of successful aerial duels than Helik, they are equal in terms of average shots per game, yet Helik is more than half the price for a goal. While Andersen may well grab an assist, and that's a bet worth remembering when markets are available, backing the Barnsley centre-back for a goal looks a real value play.
I've backed Barnsley for promotion via the play-offs and a strong start is needed if they are to do that. While a first leg lead isn't crucial, history has shown that teams taking the advantage into the second leg have a much better chance of progression.
Barnsley are odds-against to win, which looks a strong bet given Swansea's shaky conclusion to the regular season. However, the better prices can be found in backing ANDERSEN to be among the goals for the hosts.
Barnsley v Swansea best bets and score prediction
- 0.5pts Mads Andersen to score first at 66/1 (Betfred)
- 1pt Mads Andersen to score anytime at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Barnsley 2-1 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1515 BST (13/05/21)
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