Barnsley face Sheffield Wednesday in a huge contest in Sky Bet League One on Tuesday. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
1pt Barnsley to beat Sheffield Wednesday at 19/10 (Coral, Unibet)
1pt Adam Phillips to score anytime at 6/1 (Sporting Index)
A meeting between Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday is always big in the eyes of both sets of supporters, but this could well be one of their biggest given the situation in the Sky Bet League One table.
The Owls are well on their way to the title. What other teams do is now completely irrelevant, their fate is in their own hands, even if they may be feeling the slight pressure of Plymouth and, more importantly, Ipswich in the immediate positions below.
Wednesday crucially hold two games in-hand over that duo. One of those is, of course, this game, but even a return of three points from those additional fixtures hands them a six-point advantage over third at this very late stage of the season.
You could then argue that there is a higher emphasis on Barnsley to win the game. Michael Duff's side - who also hold two games in-hand over those above - will give themselves a real chance of automatic promotion if they secure maximum returns here.
Anything less than a win makes things difficult. Seven points difference with a one-game advantage looks a monumental task as opposed to five when we consider how few fixtures remain for all sides.
I always look at 'game swings' as opposed to just points at this stage. A draw leaves the hosts potentially needing to find two games going in their favour over both Plymouth and Ipswich in the run-in, victory moves that down to one.
Therefore, the best price of 19/10 on BARNSLEY TO WIN provides appeal considering the circumstances, with the hosts able to match their South Yorkshire rivals for recent form.
The odds should shorten as kick-off approaches, particularly if some of those injury doubts are missing in the Wednesday line-up.
Reece James, Josh Windass and George Byers are three names in focus when it comes to availability for the visitors, with the latter looking the most likely to be absent from the trio.
Even without the team news element, Barnsley's recent form should give them huge confidence going into this fixture. No side can boast more points returned across their last ten games (26, level with Wednesday) while they've been an incredibly difficult side to beat at home.
A 3-0 defeat to Bolton was the only time they've failed to win across their last 11 at Oakwell, and even with Wednesday's expected strong record on the road, odds pushing 2/1 on an in-form home side chasing promotion are too good to turn down.
Given circumstances, this game could be one that does creep over the 2.5 goals line. Rather than play around the Evens available, the 6/1 best price for ADAM PHILLIPS TO SCORE ANYTIME is worth backing.
The Barnsley midfielder boasts eight goals and six assists in 31 appearances across all competitions, with seven of those efforts coming in the league.
Four of his League One goals have been in their last seven outings - all of which were in different games - and he should get opportunities across the 70 or so minutes he is likely to play here.
Combining goals and assists gives a return of seven direct goal involvements across that period, further highlighting the great form he finds himself in.
No player averages more shots per league game in this Barnsley squad, with Phillips returning at least three shots in four of his last five appearances. He's benefitted from the freedom to attack more.
In a game deserving of main focus for Tuesday's football offering, backing PHILLIPS to strike in a game BARNSLEY WIN delivers the best value.
Score prediction: Barnsley 2-1 Sheffield Wednesday (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1440 GMT (20/03/23)
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