Bournemouth's away form is woeful but on the back of their Chelsea thumping Paul Higham says that can come to en end in south Wales.
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1pt Bournemouth to win & under 2.5 goals at 21/5
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Cardiff v Bournemouth (Cardiff City Stadium, 1730 GMT, BT Sport 1)
Different fortunes against two ‘top six’ sides for these two during the week – Cardiff were not disgraced at all at Arsenal but Bournemouth were wonderful when battering Chelsea as they proved just how good they can be on their day.
Their days mostly come at home though with the Cherries being pretty poor away, conceding more goals than anyone bar Fulham and losing six on the spin on the road.
That presents a huge quandary when working this game out as the visitors should be well fancied on paper, especially after their last result, but there’s just no confidence at all behind their away form and the Bluebirds may actually fancy getting something from this game.
Not that they’ve been any great shakes at home of late so, mainly just because their bad run has to come to an end at some point, we’re going to class to finally tell and for Bournemouth to finally get it right on the road – just!
Betting guide
Prediction: Cardiff 0-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
I’ve said ‘just’ and that’s exactly what the prediction is – a narrow victory for the away side. They’ve actually played OK in some games but just not finished off their chances but given Cardiff’s recent scoring drought at home one may be all they need.
Best bet: Bournemouth to win & under 2.5 goals at 21/5
You never know, an early Bournemouth goal could send the confidence flowing through their veins to replicate the Chelsea win, but it’s more likely they have to fight and scrap to break down a stubborn Cardiff side. These two actually have a pretty favourable record of going over the 2.5 goal mark so were going against the grain here for this one.
Stats: HT/FT – Bournemouth/Bournemouth at 3/1
Since expectations for goals is pretty low we’re looking away from the goals market and trying another angle and this is the most popular outcome for both sides in their games this season. Only five teams have had more win/win outcomes than Bournemouth while Cardiff have the third highest record of lose/lose in the league.
Cardiff City v Bournemouth Opta stats
- Cardiff are winless in five home matches against Bournemouth in all competitions (D3 L2) since a 2-1 win in a third tier match in April 1994.
- Bournemouth have only won two of their 16 away league matches against Cardiff (D6 L8), with Eddie Howe featuring for the Cherries the last time they did so in March 2000.
- Cardiff have failed to score in their last two Premier League home games, attempting just eight shots and three shots on target (W0 D1 L1).
- No side have drawn more Premier League games 0-0 than Cardiff this season (4). Indeed their four goalless draws this season is more than Bournemouth have had in their last two campaigns combined in the competition (3).
- Bournemouth have lost their last six away Premier League games, conceding at least twice each time. They’ve not lost seven in a row on the road in league football since October 1994.
- Only Fulham (30) have conceded more away Premier League goals this season than Bournemouth (25).
- In 2019, only Accrington Stanley (0) have scored fewer goals in the top four tiers of English league football than Cardiff City (1).
- Bournemouth striker Callum Wilson has scored seven goals in his last six Premier League starts against newly promoted teams, netting one against Cardiff earlier this season.
- On the day of this match, it will be 19 years and 102 days since Cardiff manager Neil Warnock hosted Bournemouth in a league match – a 2-2 draw as Bury manager at Gigg Lane in October 1999.
- Cardiff winger Nathaniel Mendez-Laing scored his first Premier League goal in their 1-2 defeat to Arsenal, meaning he has scored in all four English league divisions since the 2014-15 season, one of only two players to achieve this feat in that time along with Alfie Mawson.
Odds correct as of 2330 GMT on 31/01/19