Free betting tips: Sky Bet Championship - Derby County v Nottingham Forest
It's derby day on Monday night as Derby take on Nottingham Forest. With 8/1 and 16/1 winners in the past few days, Tom Carnduff looks at the betting.
Recommended bets
2pts Michael Hefele to be shown a card at 7/2
2pts Jack Robinson to be shown a card at 3/1
2pts Claudio Yacob to be shown a card at 2/1
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Derby v Nottingham Forest (Pride Park, 1945 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event)
It's derby day on Monday night as two of the Sky Bet Championship's promotion chasing sides meet at Pride Park.
Victory for Derby (sorry, Frank Lampard's Derby County) will move them up to third and aid in closing the gap on Norwich and Leeds, while Nottingham Forest can move above their opponents on goal difference if they can secure all three points.
It has the feel of one of the biggest East Midlands derby games in recent years given the position that both teams find themselves in, and both will know the importance of victory - not only for bragging rights but to also boost their own promotion aspirations.
This game has all the potential to be one with a high count on all the usual RequestABet areas, but given Forest's disciplinary record, we can expect them to pick up a few cards in a game like this.
The one thing they have been consistent with throughout the season is bookings. They've held top spot in yellow cards shown throughout the course of the campaign, the majority of which have come on the road.
In particular, the 7/2 available on Michael Hefele to be shown a card is great value given his record so far. The centre-back has two yellows on his tally in ten Championship games and should start again here having returned to the starting XI in recent weeks.
He may not sit high up in fouls committed in this Forest side, but then it is worth remembering his lack of game time due to various injury concerns. In a game like this, he is the type of player who can get overly involved.
The fact he was shown nine yellows in Huddersfield's last season in the Championship highlights those issues with fouls leading the cautions. He also picked up three bookings in just six games for Huddersfield in 2017/18.
Another player who could be in trouble in a game like this is Jack Robinson, with the full-back sitting fourth in the fouls against department. He has five yellows and one red across all competitions, with another yellow signalling a one-match ban.
This is the type of game that could see him hit that margin, as with Hefele, it'll be a game played at a high-intensity which could see a couple of players over step the mark.
A best price of 3/1 is generous on Robinson being shown a card by referee Keith Stroud, although the value is still there if it does drop to around that 2/1 mark.
Completing the trio of players to back for a card is Claudio Yacob, who has three yellows in just five Championship games.
He has played the full 90 minutes in his last three starts, with the last two games bringing cautions in the final 30 minutes. With a record as poor as that, it's worth taking the 2/1 with Unibet on a card in this one, especially given how most other firms are floating around or below even money.
Score prediction: Derby 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
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Opta facts
- This will be the 93rd league match between Derby and Nottingham Forest – the Rams are unbeaten in their last five (W3 D2).
- Nottingham Forest have lost their last three league trips to Pride Park against Derby by an aggregate score of 0-6.
- The last meeting between Derby and Nottingham Forest on a Monday was in November 1998 in the Premier League – a 2-2 draw.
- Nottingham Forest boss Aitor Karanka lost his first league match against Derby in December 2013 but has since gone unbeaten in each of his last six (W4 D2).
- Derby have lost just one of their last nine league games at Pride Park (W6 D2), a 0-3 defeat against Aston Villa in November.
- Nottingham Forest’s 0-1 defeat against Preston last time out ended a run of seven league games without a defeat for Forest (W4 D3) – they last lost back-to-back league games back in April (run of three consecutive defeats).
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (17/12/18)