Premier League tips: Betting previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's action including Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal

Recommended bets

1pt Jordan Ayew 1+ shots on target v Leicester at 11/10

0.5pt Abdoulaye Doucoure to score anytime at 8/1

0.5pt Paul Pogba to score from outside the area at 9/1

0.5pt BTTS in the second half of Wolves v Arsenal at 13/5

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Norwich v Brighton

• 1230 BST kick-off on BT Sport

The early kick-off is not one for the purists, but a huge fixture in the relegation battle. Lose to fellow rivals for the drop and you can count Norwich gone...if you have not already.

The Canaries' thrashing at Arsenal leaves them bottom and seven points from safety with just six to go. It would be some great escape now. At the start of the season, even though they had some defeats, they still looked exciting and played some good football.

Since the break, they have looked incredibly flat and so has Daniel Farke. They are heading towards an immediate return to the Sky Bet Championship. On the bright side, they will be in a division without VAR drama.

As they fail to pick up a point since the return, Brighton have collected five from four incredibly tough fixtures - Wolves, Arsenal, Leicester and Man United. Graham Potter's side have a nice six-point cushion over the bottom three but it is not time to ease off just yet.

While it would be typical of the relegation fight to see Norwich get a result and claw back some slight hope for the run-in, the game is so big for Brighton that it is difficult to see them coming away pointless. These games can always be cagey with both sides not wanting to take risks, but Norwich need to act and that could be where the Seagulls can pounce and edge it.

It is one we'd rather avoid in the staking plan, but draw no bet in Brighton's favour is a good option despite the odds-on price, with the added insurance in the event of the points being shared.

Prediction: Norwich 0-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Best bet: Brighton draw no bet at 8/13

Opta stats

• Following their 2-0 win at the Amex Stadium in November, Brighton are looking to complete their first league double over Norwich since 1951-52.
• Norwich have failed to score in three of their last four Premier League home games, including each of their last two. They last went three league games without a goal at Carrow Road in September 2000, while it’s not something they’ve ever suffered in the Premier League.
• Brighton are winless in their last eight Premier League away games (D5 L3), though each of their last four have ended level.
• Brighton have won fewer games than any other Premier League side so far in 2020 (W1 D7 L4). The Seagulls have also failed to score in four of their last five league matches.
• Norwich have lost their last five games in all competitions, their worst losing run under Daniel Farke. It is Farke’s joint-worst losing run in his managerial career, also losing five consecutively as SV Lippstadt boss in November 2013.
• Norwich have scored the fewest Premier League goals this season (25), conceded the joint most (60) and have failed to score in more different games than any other side (15).
• Lewis Dunk has been shown 13% of Brighton’s yellow cards in the Premier League (21/163), the highest ratio of any player at a team to have featured in more than two seasons in the competition.
• Norwich’s Teemu Pukki has failed to have a shot in either of his last two Premier League games. The Finnish striker had only failed to register an attempt in one of his first 29 appearances this season.

Leicester v Crystal Palace

• 1500 BST kick-off on Sky One / Sky Sports Premier League

Of all teams to struggle for form since the return, few would have picked Leicester.

The Foxes in particular, are third and in with a great chance of securing Champions League football again and Brendan Rodgers spoke after their defeat on Wednesday about a reset in mentality that is required.

Jamie Vardy has been stuck on 99 Premier League goals for what seems like a lifetime.

He scored twice against Villa before the break and has not added to his season tally in the four games (including the FA Cup) since the return. He has had at least two efforts in three of them, none in the defeat to Everton, but he needs to get the supply from his team-mates.

You expect Leicester and Vardy to turn it around sooner or later and it could well be here, but the 6/5 anytime on the former England striker is just not appealing enough for this market.

Instead, a similar price that stands out more is in favour of the opposition, with Jordan Ayew in the shots on target betting.

Palace are not the most prolific side in the league, but they have got some excellent results to push on for the top half and Ayew's shooting statistics make interesting reading.

He averages 1.6 shots per game in the Premier League, with nearly half (23) of his 51 shots on target. In individual games, he had four against Burnley on Monday, one (a goal) against Bournemouth, three (one goal) against Watford and earlier in the season he had as many as seven in one game against Newcastle.

He is their top goalscorer with nine goals and often plays near-full 90 minutes under Roy Hodgson, usually leading the line or in a supporting role to the main forward.

The Ghanaian is 15/4 to score anytime, but 11/10 to have one shot on target against a Leicester team now lacking in confidence.

When he shoots, they often come in a flurry and one effort on goal, away from home or not when playing behind closed doors, is a realistic ask in a match where they will fancy getting their chances against an out-of-sorts top four side.

Prediction: Leicester 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Best bet: Jordan Ayew 1+ shots on target at 11/10

Opta stats

• Crystal Palace have won their last two Premier League away games against Leicester, winning 3-0 in December 2017 and 4-1 in February 2019.
• Since collecting maximum points across eight Premier League games between October 19th and December 8th, Leicester City have won just 17 points from their last 16 Premier League games (W4 D5 L7).
• Crystal Palace have netted just nine Premier League goals before half-time this season, failing to score in the first half a joint league-high 24 times. In a completed Premier League season, only Sunderland in 2002-03 and Aston Villa in 2015-16 (both 8) have netted fewer in the opening 45 minutes.
• Before the enforced break, Leicester had the second highest shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season, netting with 14.3% of their shots (58/405). Since the restart, their conversion rate is just 4.9%, with the Foxes scoring just twice from 41 attempts.
• Crystal Palace are the only side who haven’t scored more than twice in a Premier League match this season, while only Liverpool, Man City and Man Utd have scored 3+ goals in more Premier League games than Leicester (7) this term.
• Leicester striker Jamie Vardy scored 26 goals in his first 28 Premier League appearances under Brendan Rodgers – since then, he has found the net just twice in 11 games, failing to attempt a single shot in their 2-1 away defeat at Everton.
• In his English league career, Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has been involved in more goals against Leicester than he has against any other side (9 – 5 goals, 4 assists).

Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth

• 1500 BST kick-off on BT Sport

Manchester United were in great form before the enforced break and plenty wondered whether they would be able to continue that after such a long time out.

But Paul Pogba is back and looking interested, Bruno Fernandes is inspiring the team with an impact few would have expected and Ole Gunnar Solksjaer's men are continuing to impress. They have scored six goals in their last two Premier League games without conceding and their unbeaten run now stands at 15 games in all competitions.

So, Bournemouth...at Old Trafford? Surely not.

The Red Devils have competition for places now and they look focused and are still making ground on the top four. With Chelsea facing Watford on Saturday evening, this is a great chance to leapfrog the Blues for a few hours at least and to really put the pressure on them and Leicester.

Finding value in games like this can be difficult. The Cherries were really poor in their 4-1 thrashing at home to Newcastle and such a turnaround would be a surprise here. An improvement? Maybe, but it is hard to see any more than that.

United are so well fancied in the markets that they are odds-on to score three or more goals. So instead, we will go for a small stakes shout at 9/1.

The Pogba-Fernandes combination is a narrative being picked up a lot and the latter was keen to play it down on Tuesday, but his arrival from Sporting Lisbon has given Pogba the kick he needed.

The Frenchman has shown glimpses of his old self again and it is a matter of time until he gets back on the score sheet as he finds his rhythm following an extended spell on the sidelines.

The 27-year-old is a shade under 3/1 to find the back of the net anytime but at a more appealing nines to score from outside the box. He teed up his new mate Fernandes on Tuesday and he could well return the favour.

Of Pogba's 16 shots in 10 Premier League appearances this term, eight have been from outside the area. We know he is not afraid of shooting on sight in and around the 18-yard box and with the freedom he has in this three-man midfield he could find the space to exploit a declining Bournemouth.

Prediction: Man United 4-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Best bet: Paul Pogba to score from outside the area at 9/1

Opta stats

• Manchester United have won seven of their eight home games against Bournemouth in all competitions, drawing the other in March 2017 (1-1).
• Manchester United have kept five clean sheets in their last six Premier League home games (W4 D1 L1) – as many as they had in their previous 32 at Old Trafford. They’re looking to win four consecutive home league games without conceding for the first time since a run of six ending in October 2017.
• Bournemouth have lost 10 of their last 11 Premier League away games (W1), while overall no side has lost more on the road in the top-flight this season than the Cherries (12).
• 53% (16/30) of the goals Bournemouth have scored this season have been via set pieces, the highest percentage in the division. The Cherries haven’t scored from open play in five hours and 51 minutes of Premier League football.
• Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes has been involved in eight goals in his eight Premier League games so far (5 goals, 3 assists). He averages a goal involvement every 85 minutes in the Premier League this term, second to only Sergio Agüero (one every 77) among players to have played at least 500 minutes.
• Anthony Martial has scored eight goals in his last seven home league games for Manchester United, as many as he had in his previous 29 at Old Trafford in the Premier League.

Wolves v Arsenal

• 1730 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League

Two sides targeting a top-six finish, victory here would see seventh-placed Arsenal close the gap on Wolves above them to just three points.

Getting a result against Nuno Espirito Santo's side will be no mean feat though - they are on a three-game winning run and unbeaten in six games in total in all competitions. To say their season started last July, they have done brilliantly.

Arsenal, on the other hand, are continuing to improve under Mikel Arteta and are showing glimpses again after a difficult return with injuries and individual errors costing them against Man City and Brighton.

Both sides are dangerous on the attack, Wolves much more organised in defence, but we could see a close clash played out here. While the prediction is a draw, the preference is to back both teams to get on the score sheet in the second half at 13/5.

Wolves are a second half team, there's no doubt about it. They have conceded first in 18 of their 32 fixtures, coming from behind to save 20 points in those games (eight draws and four wins). They certainly do not make it easy for themselves.

They have scored 33 goals in the second half of games this season (vs just 12 in the first), while Arsenal have scored 27 and conceded 20 after the interval.

With the game expected to start a little cagey, as we have often seen since the restart as teams continue to adjust and regain sharpness, they can push on for a second-half spectacle.

With Arsenal's questionable defence, the Gunners may have to retaliate at the other end, so a small backing on goals in the latter half piques our interest.

Prediction: Wolves 2-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Best bet: BTTS in the second half at 13/5

Opta stats

• Arsenal haven’t won any of their last 17 Premier League away games against sides starting the day higher than them in the table (D5 L12), with their last such victory coming in September 2015 against eventual champions Leicester City (5-2).
• Wolves are unbeaten in eight Premier League games (W5 D3), keeping a clean sheet in seven of them. Indeed, Wolves are currently on a run of 405 minutes without conceding a Premier League goal, since Serge Aurier netted against them for Spurs in March.
• Wolves are the only side with a 100% winning record in the Premier League since the June restart. Indeed, across the whole Premier League campaign only champions Liverpool have lost fewer games than Wolves this term (6).
• Wolves have scored a league-high ratio 73% of their Premier League goals in the second half of games this season (33/45), while also conceding a league-low 11 times after half-time.
• Arsenal have won five of their last seven Premier League matches (L2), one more than they won in their previous 23 games (W4 D13 L6).
• Arsenal have benefitted from three opposition errors that have led to a goal in their four league games since the restart. The Gunners had only benefitted from four such errors in their opening 28 Premier League games this season.
• Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored 22 Premier League goals last season and has netted 19 this season – he needs one more goal to become only the second Gunners player to score 20 goals in consecutive Premier League seasons, after Thierry Henry (five in a row between 2001-02 and 2005-06).

Chelsea v Watford

• 2000 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League

Chelsea suffered a setback on Wednesday in their top-four hopes with a shock defeat at West Ham, so Frank Lampard will be demanding a reaction from his side when they host struggling Watford.

The Hornets showed promise in the months under Nigel Pearson leading up to the coronavirus crisis, but have collected just a point since the return. While all three points may be a tough ask here, they can get on the score sheet against a Blues side that has failed to keep a clean sheet in the league in their three games back.

With the way Tomas Soucek bullied Cesar Azpilicueta from set pieces at the London Stadium and the poor defending on show throughout, attacking midfielder Abdoulaye Doucoure is an excellent 8/1 to get on the score sheet anytime.

Hopeful yes, but worth half a point. Regular Sporting Life readers will know we are keen on the Frenchman, who now plays in a more advanced role thanks to Pearson and often supports Troy Deeney in the final third.

He consistently has at least two efforts on goal - in six of his last seven appearances and, in the game before that v Everton, he had four.

He is 5/4 with Sky Bet to register one effort on target, 5/6 to have 2+ shots. But 8/1 is a worthy shout against a leaky Chelsea defence.

Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bet: Abdoulaye Doucoure to score anytime at 8/1

Opta stats

• Chelsea have won each of their last three Premier League games against Watford – it’s their fourth such run of three straight league wins against the Hornets, but they’ve never beaten them in four consecutively.
• Watford haven’t won away at Chelsea in any competition since May 1986 (5-1), drawing four and losing eight at Stamford Bridge since then.
• Chelsea have won each of their last three Premier League home games, having won just two of their previous seven at Stamford Bridge (D1 L4). They last won more consecutively at home in December 2017 under Antonio Conte (7).
• Watford have earned just six points from their last 30 available in the Premier League (W1 D3 L6). However, four of those six points have come against sides in the top four (3-0 v Liverpool, 1-1 v Leicester).
• Watford have shipped 49 goals in their 32 Premier League games this season – they’ve conceded at least 50 in each of their previous six full campaigns in the competition. Of teams to have played in more than five seasons in the Premier League, only Norwich (9/9) and QPR (7/7) have conceded 50+ goals in all of them.
• Chelsea have dropped 18 points from losing positions in the Premier League this season – only in 2015-16 (21) have they dropped more in a single campaign in the Roman Abramovich era.
• 66% of the Premier League goals Chelsea have conceded this season have come in the second half (29/44), the highest ratio in the division.
• Chelsea have lost four of their last five Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the bottom four of the table (W1), as many as they’d lost in their previous 37 such games (W27 D6 L4).
• Chelsea’s Willian has scored eight goals in the Premier League this season, three of which have come since the restart in June. It is the Brazilian’s joint best scoring season in the Premier League (also 2016-17), and his joint best season for goal involvements (8 goals, 5 assists), alongside 2017-18.
• Despite being Chelsea’s leading scorer in the Premier League this season with 13 goals, Tammy Abraham has failed to score in any of his last seven games in the competition.

Odds correct as of 1600 BST on 02/07/20

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