Free betting tips: FA Cup fourth round replay - West Brom v Brighton
There's live football available for all as the FA Cup returns to BBC One on Wednesday night, Tom Carnduff has a 25/1 best bet.
Recommended bets
1pt Brighton to beat West Brom (90mins) at 2/1
1pt Conor Townsend to score anytime at 25/1
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West Brom v Brighton (Hawthorns, 2005 GMT, BBC One)
There's live football available for all as the FA Cup returns to BBC One on Wednesday night, as West Brom welcome Brighton to the Hawthorns after the two sides battled out a goalless draw at the Amex Stadium just under a fortnight ago.
It's a difficult game to call, this. On the one hand, there's the Baggies' strong home record in the league this season; on the other, it's clear from Chris Hughton's team selections that the FA Cup is a competition he's aking very seriously.
Darren Moore on the other hand sees it as the ideal opportunity to rotate his squad and give playing time to those who don't feature as much in the league. He's made it clear that he'll operate the same policy here despite it being a chance to defeat Premier League opposition.
It's Moore's likely rotation that points the way to the best bet, with Connor Townsend good value to get on the scoresheet at a massive 25/1.
A summer signing from Scunthorpe, his minutes in the league have been restricted this season resulting in just four appearances. However, he has played the full 90 minutes in every cup game and that record appears likely to continue on Wednesday.
He's a left-back by trade, but has in fact played in an advanced left midfield position on more than one occasion for West Brom. He may have played in defence in the first game, but home advantage could potentially signal a more attacking approach and it's likely we'll see him higher up the pitch.
Jefferson Montero and Jacob Murphy were signed on deadline day to add more numbers to the wide positions in Moore's squad. They can't play here, though, as they weren't registered for the original tie between these two sides.
The Baggies no longer have Harvey Barnes at their disposal either after his recall from Leicester. Kyle Edwards was the preferred option in the midfield position in the first leg, but Moore did use Townsend as a winger in their three Carabao Cup games and could do so again.
Certainly, Townsend is a player who likes being on the front foot. He was directly involved in ten goals for Scunthorpe last season and that played a big part in West Brom's move for him.
He would often rotate between the midfield and defensive positions, several of those contributions coming from defence, so even if he does play across the back here that doesn't rule out the prospect of a goal.
At a huge 25/1, Townsend has been priced up as an out-and-out left-back who offers next to nothing in attack. That just isn't the case and in what could be an open game, he's an excellent bet at double-figure prices.
In terms of the result, I am leaning towards Brighton given how much stronger their side looked in the first leg. Their away form has been hit-and-miss this season, but they did convincingly beat Bournemouth 3-1 in the third round.
It's a little surprising to see them chalked up at 2/1, with West Brom favourites, and they look good value.
Score prediction: West Brom 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Conor Townsend to score anytime at 25/1
Opta facts
- West Brom are unbeaten in 10 home games against Brighton in all competitions, since a 0-2 loss in a League Cup match in September 1976 (W6 D4).
- West Brom have won just one of their last eight FA Cup home games against Premier League opponents (D2 L5), beating West Ham 4-0 in February 2015.
- Brighton have progressed from four of their last five FA Cup replays, though they did lose their last such game against Hull in 2013-14.
- Brighton had four times as many shots as West Brom in the first meeting (24-6), but the game still finished goalless.
- Brighton manager Chris Hughton has lost four of his last five games against West Brom at the Hawthorns, winning the other with Norwich in the Premier League in December 2013 (2-0).
Odds correct at 1145 GMT (05/02/19)