Free football betting tips: Brentford v QPR - Sky Bet Championship preview & best bets

Recommended bets

2pts Brentford to win and under 4.5 goals at evens

1pt Bryan Mbeumo to assist Ivan Toney at 6/1

0.5pt e.w Henrik Dalsgaard first scorer at 33/1 (1/3 odds 1-99)

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Brentford v Queens Park Rangers

• 19:45 GMT on Sky Sports Football
• Match odds: Home 3/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 9/2

A West London derby kicks off the weekend's Sky Bet EFL action on Friday night, albeit without the sort of raucous atmosphere that would usually accompany it.

It’s a fixture Brentford have had by far the better of since their promotion into the Championship, winning seven of the 10 meetings between the sides, including all five at Griffin Park.

They will hope to continue that proud record in their new surroundings of the Brentford Community Stadium and few would oppose them given Ivan Toney’s form in front of goal.

A best price of 13/20 on a Bees win, though, holds little appeal, especially given their neighbours' decent form too, with former Bees boss Mark Warburton’s QPR winning three of their past five. Thus, given the skinny outright odds, I was surprised to see Brentford/under 4.5 goals at a comparatively chunky even money with Sky Bet.

Knock a goal off and you can find 11/8, but I'm taking the extra security given Rangers' habit of conceding and the fact that both derby encounters finished 3-1 to Brentford last term.

Only one of the Bees’ past nine games has featured five goals or more (a 3-2 loss at Stoke) as they have really tightened up since an October wobble. But where they have struggled is in turning dominance into goals.

Thomas Frank's men have enjoyed more than 60% possession in their past three matches – including a whopping 68% at Barnsley in midweek – but have scored only once in total.

Nonetheless, they have been able to see off lower opposition – beating Coventry, Sheffield Wednesday, Luton and Barnsley, all in games with three goals or fewer.

I fancy them to do the same here, but simply cannot rule out another 3-1 win over their rivals, which is why I'm staying cautious and going with Brentford to win and under 4.5 goals.

Part of the reason Brentford are not quite as free-scoring this season is the departure of two-thirds of their vaunted BMW strike force, with Said Benrahma heading for West Ham and Ollie Watkins for Villa.

Bryan Mbeumo has struck up a new TM partnership with Ivan Toney though – and the Frenchman putting it on a plate for the summer signing from Peterborough is becoming a real trademark.

Mbeumo has set up four of Toney’s 11 goals this term, a combination that has twice as many assists as any other Championship duo.

He’s 7/2 for an assist here – but 6/1 to provide one for Toney, a price I like the look of, seeing as if he’s going to set up anyone, it’s most likely to be the in-form striker who has scored in eight of his last 11 matches.

Elsewhere, in the goals market, if you fancy a QPR punt, the impressive Ilias Chair is 9/1 to net first and you’ll get a third of those odds any time with Sky Bet’s each way offer.

I’m going to take up that offer but on Bees central defender Henrik Dalsgaard at 33/1 – he’s had 11 efforts on goal in his last nine games and QPR have conceded a league-high five from set-pieces.

Score prediction: Brentford 2-0 Queens Park Rangers (Sky Bet odds 7/1)

Best bets:

Brentford to win and under 4.5 goals at evens

Bryan Mbeumo to assist Ivan Toney at 6/1

Henrik Dalsgaard e.w first scorer at 33/1

Odds correct as of 1400 GMT (26/11/20)

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