Atlético Madrid v Barcelona tips: La Liga best bets and preview

By Liam Kelly

20:00 · SUN January 08, 2023

Liam Kelly landed four of his last five La Liga tips before the break, and he returns to provide his best bet for Sunday's clash between Atlético Madrid and Barcelona on ITV4.

Football betting tips: Premier League

1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Rotation in a midweek round of Copa del Rey action will see Barcelona enter this contest a little fresher than their hosts, despite needing extra time to beat CF Intercity 4-3.

Atlético Madrid fielded a near full-strength side in their cup victory, but their performances for quite a while have been underwhelming to say the least.

Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday

TV Channel: ITV4, LaLigaTV

Atlético Madrid 2/1 | Draw 12/5 | Barcelona 13/10

Although they sit fourth in La Liga, it's been an uncharacteristically sloppy season for Diego Simeone's men, posting a +2.5 expected goal difference (xGD) that ranks eighth in the league.

Perhaps most surprising is their inability to stop teams from creating chances this term (20.5 xGA), usually a staple of a Simeone side. Still, Atléti have conceded just 14 times in 15 games and are always capable of putting in a stubborn defensive display.

That might well be the case here given Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski predicament.

Barca's star striker had a ban upheld by the courts this week, which will see Lewandowski miss the next three matches. Obviously, that severely blunts their attacking threat.

However, for the purposes of the selection — UNDER 2.5 GOALS — it is Barcelona's defensive process that catches the eye.

CLICK HERE to back Under 2.5 Goals with Sky Bet

Available at a pick 'em price of 10/11, two or fewer goals makes sense at the Wanda Metropolitano with Barca being the strongest team at the back in the league this season.

Xavi's side have conceded just six times in their 15 La Liga matches, allowing an average of 0.83 expected goals against (xGA) per game.

Considering Atleti are not exactly fluid going forward, a low-scoring affair looks to be on the cards in a vital game.

Atlético Madrid v Barcelona best bets and score prediction

1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (General)

Score prediction: Atlético Madrid 1-1 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct at 0930 GMT (06/01/23)

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.