Aston Villa vs Newcastle betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +31.9pts in profit for the 2023/24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pt Douglas Luiz over 0.5 shots on target at 6/4 (bet365)
1pt Douglas Luiz to score anytime at 23/5 (Unibet)
0.5pt Douglas Luiz over 1.5 shots on target at 9/1 (bet365)
It's fair to suggest that these two teams' seasons have gone in slightly unexpectedly different directions since Newcastle thrashed Aston Villa 5-1 at St James' Park on the opening weekend of the Premier League campaign.
Back in August, many would have scoffed at the notion that Villa could enter the reverse fixture as odds-on favourites - yet here we are five months later in that very scenario.
It's hard to escape the feeling that Unai Emery's side might have peaked, though - Villa's form has certainly dipped since Sheffield United were the surprising team to end their amazing 15-game winning home league sequence before Christmas.
Nonetheless, they are enjoying a fantastic season and remain in the top four - to the envy of Tuesday's visitors to Villa Park, a Newcastle side who the hosts are trying to emulate by reaching the Champions League.
What are the best bets?
Making a case for the Magpies is tough here - yes, they have looked impressive in FA Cup wins over Sunderland and Fulham but whenever they have faced stout opposition recently, they have lost, as evidenced by eight defeats in their past 11 games.
That will tempt some to back Villa at just under evens but recent results prevent me having too much confidence - a Boxing Day collapse at Old Trafford, narrow wins over 10-man Burnley and Middlesbrough, goalless draws at Everton and Chelsea.
They are certainly the likeliest winner but I think we can find better value, specifically centred around DOUGLAS LUIZ, the all-action midfielder who has been one of the key driving forces behind Villa's success this season.
He has been especially influential at home, particularly in an attacking sense - all six of his goals this season have come at Villa Park and the 25-year-old is averaging almost one shot on target per game there (nine SOTs in 10 games).
That makes the 6/4 on OVER 0.5 SHOTS ON TARGET with bet365 and 23/5 on him TO SCORE ANYTIME with Unibet both look huge - especially as he's Villa's designated penalty-taker and has netted five from the spot this term.
- CLICK HERE to back Douglas Luiz 1+ shots on target with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Douglas Luiz to score anytime with Sky Bet
Indeed, I'm going all in on the Brazilian midfielder and backing OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON TARGET at 9/1 against a Newcastle side shipping 16.7 shots per away game - for comparison, bottom side Sheffield United are only marginally worse on 17.2.
It's a mark he's hit in two of his 10 home appearances this season - both coming in the past four games, showing he has his shooting boots on at the minute. It was almost three games in four as he hit the woodwork against Manchester City.
BuildABet @ 60/1
- Douglas Luiz to score anytime
- Douglas Luiz to be carded
- Sean Longstaff to be carded
Appointed match official John Brooks is averaging 4.5 cards per game this season and both of these sides are in the top seven of the Premier League's ill-discipline charts.
Douglas Luiz has three yellows in 10 home games this season, averaging 2.4 tackles and 1.5 fouls per Villa Park appearance, while Sean Longstaff is a value Newcastle pick for a card, with three in his past six away games, boosting our BAB to 60/1.
Team news
Villa will likely be without defensive duo Pau Torres (ankle) and Lucas Digne (hamstring), although the latter is close to a return. Striker Jhon Duran (hamstring) joined them on the treatment table last week and will be out for several weeks.
Jacob Ramsey, who has emerged as a surprise January transfer target for the visitors, is also a doubt with a hamstring issue while Bertrand Traore is away at Afcon. Emi Buendia and Tyrone Mings are out long-term with ACL injuries.
For Newcastle, Kieran Trippier is expected to be declared fit despite suffering some groin soreness in the FA Cup win at Fulham, while Miguel Almiron should return from illness.
Jamaal Lascelles (calf) will be out, as will Harvey Barnes (toe) and Callum Wilson, though the latter pair are nearing fitness. Joe Willock (Achilles) is close to a return too but Elliot Anderson, Nick Pope, Joelinton and Matt Targett are all out long-term.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Lenglet, Moreno; Bailey, Luiz, Kamara, McGinn; Diaby, Watkins
Newcastle United: Dubravka; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Miley; Murphy, Isak, Gordon
Match facts
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last six Premier League home games against Newcastle (winning the last four in a row), keeping a clean sheet each time (W4 D2). They last lost at home against them in September 2013 (1-2).
- Aston Villa have won 16 of their last 17 Premier League home games (D1), since going down 4-2 against Arsenal last February.
- Newcastle have lost each of their last four Premier League games, conceding at least three goals in the last three of those. This is the Magpies’ longest league losing run since January 2021 (five), while not since December 1965 have they conceded 3+ goals in four straight league fixtures.
- Aston Villa have conceded just nine goals in the first half of Premier League games this season, with no side shipping fewer before half-time.
- Villa have been behind for just 43 minutes in Premier League home games this season, with only Manchester City trailing less at home (3 minutes) - while only four sides have been ahead for fewer minutes in away games than Newcastle (136).
- Aston Villa drew 0-0 with Everton last time out, manager Unai Emery’s first ever goalless draw in the Premier League (97th game). Only once has he seen his side fail to score in consecutive Premier League matches, with the Villans losing 1-0 to both Manchester United and Wolves in April/May last season.
- Since beating Manchester United at the start of December for their seventh win in 10 Premier League games, no side has taken fewer points in the Premier League than Newcastle (3 – W1 D0 L6).
- Ollie Watkins has been involved in nine goals in his last eight Premier League home appearances, scoring five and assisting four. His next goal will be his 50th in the Premier League, just the third Aston Villa player to reach the milestone after Gabriel Agbonlahor (74) and Dwight Yorke (60).
- Alexander Isak has scored in each of Newcastle’s last three Premier League games but ended on the losing side in them all. In the competition’s history, no player has ever scored in four successive appearances while losing each one
Odds correct at 1145 GMT (29/01/24)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.