1.5pt Douglas Luiz over 0.5 shots on target at 6/4 (bet365)
1pt Douglas Luiz to score anytime at 23/5 (Unibet)
0.5pt Douglas Luiz over 1.5 shots on target at 9/1 (bet365)
It's fair to suggest that these two teams' seasons have gone in slightly unexpectedly different directions since Newcastle thrashed Aston Villa 5-1 at St James' Park on the opening weekend of the Premier League campaign.
Back in August, many would have scoffed at the notion that Villa could enter the reverse fixture as odds-on favourites - yet here we are five months later in that very scenario.
It's hard to escape the feeling that Unai Emery's side might have peaked, though - Villa's form has certainly dipped since Sheffield United were the surprising team to end their amazing 15-game winning home league sequence before Christmas.
Nonetheless, they are enjoying a fantastic season and remain in the top four - to the envy of Tuesday's visitors to Villa Park, a Newcastle side who the hosts are trying to emulate by reaching the Champions League.
Making a case for the Magpies is tough here - yes, they have looked impressive in FA Cup wins over Sunderland and Fulham but whenever they have faced stout opposition recently, they have lost, as evidenced by eight defeats in their past 11 games.
That will tempt some to back Villa at just under evens but recent results prevent me having too much confidence - a Boxing Day collapse at Old Trafford, narrow wins over 10-man Burnley and Middlesbrough, goalless draws at Everton and Chelsea.
They are certainly the likeliest winner but I think we can find better value, specifically centred around DOUGLAS LUIZ, the all-action midfielder who has been one of the key driving forces behind Villa's success this season.
He has been especially influential at home, particularly in an attacking sense - all six of his goals this season have come at Villa Park and the 25-year-old is averaging almost one shot on target per game there (nine SOTs in 10 games).
That makes the 6/4 on OVER 0.5 SHOTS ON TARGET with bet365 and 23/5 on him TO SCORE ANYTIME with Unibet both look huge - especially as he's Villa's designated penalty-taker and has netted five from the spot this term.
Indeed, I'm going all in on the Brazilian midfielder and backing OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON TARGET at 9/1 against a Newcastle side shipping 16.7 shots per away game - for comparison, bottom side Sheffield United are only marginally worse on 17.2.
It's a mark he's hit in two of his 10 home appearances this season - both coming in the past four games, showing he has his shooting boots on at the minute. It was almost three games in four as he hit the woodwork against Manchester City.
Appointed match official John Brooks is averaging 4.5 cards per game this season and both of these sides are in the top seven of the Premier League's ill-discipline charts.
Douglas Luiz has three yellows in 10 home games this season, averaging 2.4 tackles and 1.5 fouls per Villa Park appearance, while Sean Longstaff is a value Newcastle pick for a card, with three in his past six away games, boosting our BAB to 60/1.
Villa will likely be without defensive duo Pau Torres (ankle) and Lucas Digne (hamstring), although the latter is close to a return. Striker Jhon Duran (hamstring) joined them on the treatment table last week and will be out for several weeks.
Jacob Ramsey, who has emerged as a surprise January transfer target for the visitors, is also a doubt with a hamstring issue while Bertrand Traore is away at Afcon. Emi Buendia and Tyrone Mings are out long-term with ACL injuries.
For Newcastle, Kieran Trippier is expected to be declared fit despite suffering some groin soreness in the FA Cup win at Fulham, while Miguel Almiron should return from illness.
Jamaal Lascelles (calf) will be out, as will Harvey Barnes (toe) and Callum Wilson, though the latter pair are nearing fitness. Joe Willock (Achilles) is close to a return too but Elliot Anderson, Nick Pope, Joelinton and Matt Targett are all out long-term.
Aston Villa: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Lenglet, Moreno; Bailey, Luiz, Kamara, McGinn; Diaby, Watkins
Newcastle United: Dubravka; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Miley; Murphy, Isak, Gordon
Odds correct at 1145 GMT (29/01/24)
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