Aston Villa vs Brighton betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Two of the Premier League's progressively improving clubs meet on Saturday lunchtime as Aston Villa host Brighton. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Brighton 5+ offsides at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Aston Villa to win 3-2 at 20/1 (bet365, William Hill)
0.5pt Brighton to win 3-2 at 20/1 (bet365, William Hill)
This should be a Saturday lunchtime treat for the neutral. Two entertaining, attacking, progressive teams who embody their respective managers' philosophies go head-to-head at Villa Park.
Both finished in the top seven last season, earning themselves a crack at European football - and each will fancy their chances of at least replicating that placing in the upper echelon of the Premier League this term, sitting sixth and third respectively after the opening few weeks of the campaign.
The two teams come into the game on the back of spookily similar fortnights, each following a 3-1 Premier League win with a 3-2 defeat in their European group openers before bouncing back with another league victory, only to then exit the Carabao Cup in midweek to a top-flight rival.
Home advantage means Villa edge marginalism favouritism with the bookmakers but absolutely every outcome - and every scoreline - is in play here.
What are the best bets?
Everything points to an absolute wave of action in this match, given the way both sides approach the game in general and given the volume of markets available nowadays, I could easily have compiled a shortlist into triple figures.
We can expect plenty of goals, shots, corners, tackles, fouls, blocks, saves, perhaps even cards - but the first area I want to focus on is offsides considering the match-up we have between Villa's high-line and Brighton's crescendo of quick counters.
Ninad Barbadikar's excellent piece on Aston Villa's high line shows how their set-up makes opponents susceptible to the linesman's flag - there have been 24 offside decisions in the Villans' favour in their opening six games, comfortably the highest in the Premier League.
Chelsea were caught offside 10 times last weekend against Villa at Stamford Bridge and I'm happy to take the 11/8 on BRIGHTON to pass half that amount with 5+ OFFSIDES given the Seagulls have racked up 17 already this season, more than anyone in the division, except Mauricio Pochettino's Blues.
The overs lines are really high in terms of goals for this one - unsurprising give Brighton's games are averaging 4.33 goals per match, with Villa's figure not too far behind at 3.67. I think this encounter could be a really rewarding one for small stakes on correct scores at longer odds.
You could spread stakes over three or four big scorelines but I'm going to plump for VILLA TO WIN 3-2 and BRIGHTON TO WIN 3-2 simply because I think it will be high-scoring but close. I wouldn't put you off doing the same with 4-3s which are available at 66s, or 2-2 (10s) and 3-3 (28s) if you fancy a draw.
- Ollie Watkins to score or assist
- Pervis Estupinan 1+ total shots
- Brighton 6+ shots on target
- Both teams to score in both halves
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Ollie Watkins has scored in his past three appearances against Brighton and also has two assists to his name this season. It would be a surprise if he was not involved in a goal against a Seagulls side who do not 'do' clean sheets.
Gung-ho Brighton have averaged a whopping eight shots on target per game this season, registering 6+ in all but one match, and their attack-minded left-back Pervis Estupinan has let fly with seven efforts in five appearances, only failing to shoot in one of those.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-3 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Team news
Aston Villa are without long-term injury absentees Tyrone Mings and Emi Buendia but Bertrand Traore and Diego Carlos both recovered from minor injuries to make their returns as unused substitutes in the midweek Carabao Cup defeat by Everton. Unai Emery could revert to the XI that won at Chelsea on Sunday.
Alex Moreno (hamstring) is likely to be out for a few more weeks, while Leon Bailey has joined him in the treatment room for the foreseeable future after limping off against the Toffees. The turnaround could come too quickly for Jacob Ramsey who missed the midweek cup game with a slight knock and will likely not be risked.
Brighton boss Roberto De Zerbi hopes to welcome striker Evan Ferguson back from illness after he missed the Carabao Cup defeat at Chelsea on Wednesday but will be without Julio Enciso (knee) and ex-Villa man James Milner (muscle). Pascal Gross also has a muscle injury and is unlikely to recover in time to feature.
The Seagulls head coach must decide whether to stay loyal to goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen, who made a blunder for Bournemouth's opening goal last weekend, or hand a recall to Jason Steele between the sticks.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa: Martinez; Digne, Torres, Konsa, Cash; Luiz, Kamara, McGinn; Zaniolo, Diaby, Watkins
Brighton: Verbruggen; Estupinan, Dunk, Webster, Veltman; Mitoma, Gilmour, Dahoud, Pedro, March; Ferguson
Match facts
- Aston Villa have won their last four Premier League games against Brighton, scoring exactly two goals each time.
- Villa are on a run of nine consecutive home Premier League wins, their best home winning league run since a 13-game spell between February and October 1983. They could become the ninth different team to have had a run of 10 or more consecutive home wins in the Premier League.
- Brighton have scored in 22 consecutive Premier League games, netting 51 times across this run. But they’ve only kept six clean sheets in this time, conceding in all six games this season. Only five teams have both scored and conceded in their opening seven games of a season, most recently Bournemouth (2019-20).
- Since a three-game losing run against Leicester, Man City and Arsenal in February, Aston Villa have won 14 of their last 21 Premier League games (D3 L4). In this timeframe - only Manchester City (55) and Liverpool (48) have won more points in the division than Villa (45).
- Only five players have more Premier League assists in 2023 than Brighton full-back Pervis Estupinan (8), who has three in five games this season. The Ecuadorian has created 47 chances in open play this calendar year, second only to Bruno Fernandes (74).
- Ollie Watkins netted his first Premier League goal of the season for Aston Villa last time out in a 1-0 win over Chelsea. He’s scored in each of his last three appearances against Brighton, with only Sergio Aguero, Jamie Vardy and Phil Foden scoring in four in a row against the Seagulls in the competition.
Odds correct 1715 BST (28/09/23)
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