2pts Aston Villa to win and under 4.5 goals at 19/20 (Betway)
1.5pts Aston Villa clean sheet at 11/8 (SpreadEx, Sporting Index)
Can life get much better if you're a Aston Villa fan?
Victory at Fulham on Saturday was more than just a little poetic. It meant Villa have made their best start to a Premier League season since 1998, exactly two years since they were thumped 3-0 at the same ground, triggering the sacking of Steven Gerrard and subsequent arrival of miracle worker Unai Emery.
His side now return to Champions League action with the joy of ending Bayern Munich's seven-year unbeaten run in the group phase no doubt still fresh in their minds.
It built upon an opening 3-0 win at Young Boys that leaves Villa in a wonderful position.
Bologna won't be quite so chipper.
They made Liverpool work hard, but ultimately lost 2-0 at Anfield to leave them on one point having drawn 0-0 at home to a Shakhtar team 1/12 to lose at Arsenal on Tuesday evening.
Things haven't been much better in Serie A where they sit 13th after a one win, six draws and a defeat.
We really ought to not overthink this one.
While Aston Villa aren't as good as Liverpool, there's certainly a big price discrepancy from Matchday 2 to 3 when it comes to the 1X2.
The Reds were 1/6 for a home win over these same opponents while Villa are a considerably longer 4/7.
Bologna's remarkable seven draws from 10 fixtures this season could possibly be playing a part, but when twice faced with strong opponents away from home (Napoli and Liverpool) they have lost 3-0 and 2-0.
Keeping things simple and backing ASTON VILLA TO WIN AND UNDER 4.5 GOALS at a best price of 19/20 is therefore advised.
Only one of Villa's eight wins in all competitions this season, a come-from-behind 3-2 victory over Everton, has not seen under 4.5 goals.
A home win to nil can be backed at 9/5 but I prefer to give ourselves the added insurance of a possible goalless draw, especially given Bologna's record this season, and take the sizeable 11/8 on offer for an ASTON VILLA CLEAN SHEET.
Emery's side have kept their opponents (Bayern Munich and Manchester United) out in their past two matches at Villa Park, while Bologna are yet to score in this season's Champions League.
The Italian club are really struggling for goals, scoring just nine times in 10 fixtures in all competitions with the underlying numbers (10.6 expected goals) not so different. That suggests creativity is the crux of their issues.
Aston Villa's recent injury crisis is beginning to abate, with captain John McGinn back and Boubacar Kamara and Tyrone Mings returning from long spells out.
Jayden Philogene's chances of involvement may have been boosted by his late sending off at Fulham, rendering him unavailable for Villa's next league game.
Bologna were without Switzerland duo Dan Ndoye and Michel Aebischer as well as on-loan Villa winger Samuel Iling-Junior and Croatia defender Martin Erlic at the weekend, leaving them all doubtful.
Scotland midfielder Lewis Ferguson, who should return soon, Nicolo Cambiaghi and Oussama El Azzouzi remain out.
Villa: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Torres, Digne; Onana, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Ramsey; Watkins.
Bologna: Skorupski; Posch, Beukema, Lucumi, Miranda; Freuler, Moro; Orsolini, Fabbian, Karlsson; Castro.
Odds correct at 1100 BST (21/10/24)
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