Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Aston Villa 6+ corners at 5/2 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports)
BuildABet @ 30/1
- Aston Villa 6+ corners
- Morgan Rogers 1+ shots on target
- Aleksandar Pavlovic to commit 2+ fouls
- Youri Tielemans to commit 2+ fouls
I don't buy into the "you couldn't script this" cliche when it comes to football.
You get some wonderful moments, some stunning split-second outcomes that make you audibly gasp, but you absolutely can come up with basically everything that happens if you were writing it for some dramatic movie.
You also get it for the 'romantic' storylines that come with the sport. I appreciate I'm sounding like I'm moaning and being quite negative to kick this off, sorry about that.
It's basically a weird route for me to say I quite like that Aston Villa's first home game in Europe's elite club competition in 41 years comes against the side they beat thanks to Peter Withe's effort in the final of the 1982 edition. It feels...nicely poetic in a way.
And on nights like this, where so much of the build-up will be dedicated to telling the stories of old, the revisits to the past to find excitement in the present, it's easy to get dragged into the narrative.
But Aston Villa genuinely have a chance of victory here.
Unai Emery's side continue to impress. The remarkable transformation under his guidance has many layers to it and what we've seen from him in such a short space of time in the West Midlands is the ability to adapt and to overcome.
The best have tried and failed in front of the Villa faithful. Arsenal and Manchester City both defeated in Premier League meetings at Villa Park last season - Liverpool held in a 3-3 thriller.
Bayern Munich have been flying but they've only had one real test - the home draw with Leverkusen last time out. When it comes to the tactical battle, Villa hold the edge even if Bayern perhaps boast better individual talent.
What are the best bets?
It would be brave to go against a side who scored nine goals in their last game in this competition though.
They'd scored 20 in three before meeting Leverkusen. Even then it's 21 in four. It's a scary attack which could well punish a Villa back four which desperately needs the balance of Matty Cash at right-back and Ezri Konsa in the middle.
Yet Bayern's defence isn't great either. It perhaps suits Villa to play this game at a near frantic pace, looking to capitalise on the gaps left by a Bayern side looking to build. The home crowd can certainly help with that.
At 5/2, I'll make a play on VILLA SEEING SIX OR MORE CORNERS in the contest - all bookmakers go above 2/1 which is completely fine.
This is the tally they hit when beating City at Villa Park last season. It's also a figure which Villa met in both games against Burnley, and while Bayern are a far superior side, it's perhaps insight into how Emery will approach playing the Vincent Kompany system again.
A frantic encounter is usually positive for the potential of corners. It feels particularly good for Villa looking to break forward with pace as well - a scrambling defence getting back to block crosses or opting for the safe option to regroup.
Game state could also play a factor considering the current form of Villa's defence. Going a goal down will inevitably mean you have to push further forward at some stage.
Team news
Aston Villa remain without their captain John McGinn, with Tyrone Mings also still on the sideline.
Defender Cash is another who is unlikely to be available for Emery, as is midfielder Boubacar Kamara. Despite dropping points last time out, it may be a similar line-up to the one at Ipswich.
For Bayern, a big concern surrounds their star striker Harry Kane who limped off with an ankle injury in the draw with Leverkusen. He will continue to receive "intensive treatment."
Josip Stanisic definitely remains out though.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa XI: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Torres, Digne; Onana, Tielemans; Bailey, Rogers, Ramsey; Watkins.
Bayern Munich XI: Neuer; Guerreiro, Upamecano, Kim, Davies; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Musiala, Gnabry; Kane.
Match facts
- This will be the second ever meeting between Aston Villa and Bayern Munich, with Villa winning the 1982 European Cup final 1-0 against the German side to win their only ever major European title.
- Bayern Munich have only lost one of their last 10 UEFA Champions League meetings with English sides (W7 D2), a 0-3 defeat to Manchester City in the 2022-23 quarter-final first leg.
- Aston Villa won their first UEFA Champions League game on MD1 (3-0 v Young Boys), while the only other English side to win their first two matches in the competition (since 1992-93) is Leicester City – 3-0 v Club Brugge and 1-0 v FC Porto in 2016-17.
- Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has already beaten Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League on two previous occasions, winning 3-0 in September 2017 in charge of Paris SG and 1-0 in April 2022 with Villarreal. The only manager to beat Bayern Munich in the competition with as many as three different teams is José Mourinho (Chelsea, Internazionale and Real Madrid).
- Bayern Munich won 9-2 versus Dinamo Zagreb in their opening game of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League, but are winless in their last three away matches in the competition (D1 L2). They last had a longer winless run on the road between February and September 2016 (D2 L2), spanning the spells of Pep Guardiola (3) and Carlo Ancelotti (1).
- Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has only lost three of his previous 20 non-knockout stage games in the UEFA Champions League (W13 D4), although one of those defeats did come against Bayern Munich in December 2017 (1-3 while in charge of Paris SG).
- Bayern Munich registered 19 shots on target in their MD1 victory over Dinamo Zagreb; the most by a team in a single UEFA Champions League match on record (since 2003-04). Indeed, their xG tally of 6.25 was more than six teams managed in the 2023-24 campaign in total.
- Jamal Musiala created more chances than any other player on MD1 of this season’s UEFA Champions League for Bayern Munich (7), with all seven in open play. He is the youngest player (21 years, 204 days) to create seven chances in open play in a Champions League match Opta has on record since 2003-04.
- Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers created four chances from open play on his UEFA Champions League debut last time out (v Young Boys on MD1); the most by an English player on their debut in the competition since an 18-year-old Danny Welbeck in November 2009 (5 for Manchester United v Besiktas).
- Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane has been directly involved in seven goals in six career appearances against Aston Villa at Villa Park (five goals, two assists). Indeed, he’s scored the game-winning goal at Villa Park on two previous occasions, netting a 90th-minute winner in November 2014 (2-1) and both goals in a 2-0 victory there in March 2016 – both as a Tottenham Hotspur player.
Odds correct at 1015 BST (01/10/24)
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