After landing a 7/1 winning card tip in Aston Villa's game last weekend, Tom Carnduff is sticking with the cards market as they take on Wolves.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Matt Targett to be shown a card at 9/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
0.5pts Matt Targett and John McGinn to be shown a card at 20/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
Aston Villa's surprise defeat to Sheffield United in midweek left a serious dent in any hopes they had of reaching the top-six this season. For Wolves, they worried Manchester City but were ultimately beaten 4-1 by the Premier League champions-elect - it's been a disappointing campaign for Nuno Espirito Santo's side compared with their previous standards.
9th v 12th doesn't look like an ideal game for the 5:30pm slot on a Saturday but the Molineux meeting was a very eventful 90 minutes. Both sides saw a player sent off with referee Mike Dean showing a grand total of 140 booking points. Anwar El Ghazi's 94th minute penalty won it.
It shouldn't be as action packed this time around with the odds-on price for under 2.5 goals perhaps the best indicator of what we can expect. That doesn't mean we won't see a few cards though, and that is the best path to follow in this contest.
Value available in the cards market
Andy Madley is the referee and his last seven Premier League outings have all seen at least two cards or more. He isn't a 'card happy' official but has shown he can be strict and the peak in the league this season was six yellows, a red and a penalty in Sheffield United's win over Newcastle.
One selection that does represent good value is the 9/2 available with both Sky Bet and William Hill on MATT TARGETT TO BE SHOWN A CARD. The full-back was shown a yellow in the recent win over Leeds while he was booked in the game against Wolves earlier this season.
While Targett isn't a player who commits a lot of fouls on a regular basis, he will likely come up against either Adama Traore or Pedro Neto, perhaps a mix of the two. Traore is Wolves' most fouled player this season with 2.2 fouls against him on average per game. Neto is on 1.3.
In Wolves' recent draw with Newcastle, both of the two cards seen in the game were due to fouls committed on Traore. Targett's card in the 1-0 win at the Molineux was also given to him for a foul on Traore in the 81st minute. We know how problematic he can be and that could draw the Villa left-back into late challenges.
While that 9/2 makes it a good single, the 20/1 available with bet365 and Sky Bet on TARGETT AND JOHN MCGINN TO BOTH BE CARDED is also worth a small stakes play. McGinn averages a foul per game and is expected to be heavily involved in the midfield battle.
It's a surprise to see that he has avoided a booking in his last eight Premier League outings. Those games brought a combined eight fouls but McGinn escaped any punishment. He had three fouls in the previous game against Wolves and that is the second-highest for him this season.
The 20/1 price is a half-point stake play because it seems a tad too big. This is a Villa side who have been shown at least two yellows in four of their last five games.
There is little appeal in exploring the outright market further. Neither side has been consistent in recent weeks and sitting on the fence and taking the draw would be the best course of action here. However, with the prices on offer in the cards market, it's better to explore the bookings and back TARGETT and MCGINN to catch the referee's attention.
Aston Villa v Wolves best bets and score prediction
- Matt Targett to be shown a card at 9/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
- Matt Targett and John McGinn to be shown a card at 20/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (04/03/21)
Opta facts
- Aston Villa are looking to secure their first league double over Wolves since the 2003-04 campaign, following their 1-0 win at Molineux back in December.
- Wolves won this exact fixture 1-0 last season – they haven’t won consecutive away league games against Aston Villa since a run of three between 1957 and 1960.
- Aston Villa have won just one of their last six home league games against Wolves (D3 L2), having won six of their seven prior to that (L1).
- Aston Villa have won all five of their Premier League home games when scoring first this season and lost all five at Villa Park when conceding first. The other game finished goalless, making Villa Park the only ground not to see a single point gained/lost from a losing/winning position this season.
- In their last game against Man City, Wolves defender Conor Coady scored with his first ever Premier League shot on target, in what was his 103rd appearance in the competition. It's the longest an outfield player has waited for their first shot on target in the Premier League since Paulo Ferreira (105 games between 2004 and 2010).
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