The FA Cup third round kicks off at Villa Park on Friday night as Dean Smith's side welcome Liverpool. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, providing his best bet.
Football betting tips: Aston Villa v Liverpool
Please note: preview published on Tuesday, prior to Covid-19 cases at Aston Villa which may result in a weakened team if the match goes ahead, and has had a material effect on prices
2pts Liverpool to win at 11/10
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Aston Villa v Liverpool
- 19:45 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 12/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 10/11
Liverpool’s third round FA Cup tie against Aston Villa on Friday evening has rapidly become a much more pivotal match in the Reds’ season than Jürgen Klopp would have liked it to.
The FA Cup is by no means Liverpool’s top priority, but this particular match is beginning to look more and more significant, not least as the Reds are out to avenge the infamous 7-2 drubbing that Villa dished out to them at Villa Park earlier in the campaign.
This is more than just a simple vengeance mission though, with Liverpool looking to get back on track after a marked stall over the last fortnight.
They are winless in three following their 1-0 defeat at Southampton on Monday, and try as Klopp might to blame the lack of penalties his team have been awarded this season, the Liverpool boss cannot disguise the fact that they have looked a little bereft of ideas lately.
To make matters worse, his record in the FA Cup is nothing short of abysmal - the German has failed to get past the fourth round in four attempts.
Liverpool lost to Wolves at this stage last season, and Klopp will no doubt feel aggrieved at the quality of opposition his side have been drawn against once again, but this could present a good opportunity for the Reds to get back to winning ways, with Villa manager Dean Smith already admitting that he’ll be making a number of changes. In fact, Smith questioned whether the FA Cup should even have gone ahead this season.
We all know that the Christmas period is busy, but Smith’s qualms with the fixture list are surely less founded than most given this will be Villa’s first competitive match since their 2-1 defeat at Manchester United on New Year’s Day.
Prior to that loss Villa were unbeaten in five - wins against Wolves, Crystal Palace and West Brom, and draws against Burnley and Chelsea.
The Villains have undoubtedly been the surprise package of the season, three points off the top four with a game in hand.
A large part of their success has been their performances away from home, with only Leicester and Manchester United picking up more points than Smith’s men on the road. At Villa Park it has been a slightly different story however - they've collected just 10 points on home soil.
Liverpool’s tribulations away from home this season have been well documented, but they can perhaps be overlooked here given Villa’s own issues when playing host.
Both managers have hinted at a changed starting XI, so the main difficulty when assessing this match is working out who is actually going to play. It's best to assume that both teams will field equally strong teams and price the match up from there.
Having done this, the immediate thing that strikes is Liverpool’s price. I struggle to make them any bigger than 8/11 – assuming they play a reasonably strong team, which I believe they will – so the fact that they are available to back at even money seems an overreaction by the bookmakers. If this were a league match there is no way Liverpool would be as big as that.
Obviously, it is not a league game, and Klopp will no doubt make changes, but so will Smith – a particularly notable absentee could even be Jack Grealish – and I cannot help feel that Liverpool should be much shorter than they are.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Aston Villa v Liverpool
Odds correct at 1615 GMT (05/01/20)
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