Aston Villa v Leicester tips: Super Sunday Premier League best bets and preview
Super Sunday sees Brendan Rodgers take his Leicester side to Villa Park, where his former captain Steven Gerrard will be waiting. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture and picked out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Leicester to win at 2/1 (General)
1pt Leicester to take the most corners at 8/5 (Unibet)
Aston Villa and Leicester both arrive into this fixture on the back of potentially disappointing results, Villa pushed Manchester City really close at Villa Park, while Leicester twice pegged back Southampton in a 2-2 draw.
For Villa, a defeat by one goal to the champions is hardly disastrous, but they were arguably the better team in the second half, with Steven Gerrard clearly getting plenty out of his players.
For Leicester though, their draw against Southampton demonstrated exactly why they are where they are this season, a poor defensive showing twice putting them on the back foot.
They still managed to create chances, but it is beginning to feel like one step forward two steps back for the Foxes this term.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Aston Villa 11/8 | Draw 12/5 | Leicester 19/10
Just three points separate these two as they meet at Villa Park on Sunday, and there are plenty of narratives ahead of this game, namely, the Steven Gerrard v Brendan Rodgers factor.
Since parting company at Liverpool, Gerrard and Rodgers have become the only managers since the 19th century to complete a Scottish league campaign undefeated. They meet for the first time as Premier League managers on Sunday.
Aston Villa have been priced up as the favourites to win the fixture, with home advantage obviously a big factor, but Leicester look a little too big at 2/1.
That is the same price as the Foxes were to win away at St Mary’s, and though they did not, that doesn’t mean the price was correct.
Leicester are available at a bigger price to win this match than they were to win away at West Ham (9/5), Brentford (13/8) and Leeds (13/8).
Defensively the Foxes have issues, but in attack they are performing like a top six team – only Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City and West Ham have scored more goals than Rodgers’ men this term.
Villa have undoubtedly been better in their last three games, but, just like against Manchester City, this is a step above beating Brighton and Crystal Palace, and LEICESTER TO WIN makes appeal at the prices.
Who will take the most corners?
Another price that makes appeal is the 8/5 about LEICESTER TO TAKE THE MOST CORNERS.
Initially, my instinct was to side with Villa in this market, the two sides boasting identical corner records – both taken 72 and both conceded 81 – and with the home advantage on the side of Gerrard’s men, they looked the play.
But upon more detailed analysis, it seems this market has been priced up on the figures of the season as a whole, and not weighting the games Gerrard has been in charge.
During Gerrard’s three games at the helm, Villa have failed to win the corner battle on each occasion, averaging just four corners per match – as opposed to the 5.45 they averaged under Dean Smith. They have also allowed 25 corners through Gerrard’s opening three games – almost half the amount conceded through Smith’s 11 matches.
It comes perhaps from Villa’s surrendering of possession under Gerrard, averaging 44.6% for the season, but registering 37%, 36.7% and 36% in the former Liverpool captain’s short tenure.
Leicester, on the other hand, have won the corner battle in four of their seven away matches, and at the King Power only Manchester City and Chelsea have taken more corners than the Foxes.
Expected Goals is also a good precursor for the amount of corners a team may or may not win, with good quality chances more likely to lead to corners than poor quality ones.
Leicester are not performing at their best, but they have still created the ninth most chances in the league, as opposed to Villa, who sit second-bottom of that particular metric.
Expect Leicester to pen Villa in, and reap corners as their rewards.
Aston Villa v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Leicester to win at 2/1 (General)
- 1pt Leicester to take the most corners at 8/5 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (02/12/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.