Premier League betting tips: Aston Villa v Everton best bets and preview
Everton travel to Aston Villa as they bid to keep their top-four hopes alive. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Aston Villa v Everton
1pt Aston Villa to win at 8/5 (General)
A victory for Everton at Villa Park would take them level on points with West Ham in fifth position, making this a must-win for Carlo Ancelotti’s men if there are to keep their top-four hopes alive.
Aston Villa on the other hand have little to play for other than pride and professionalism, long since clear of relegation and nine points adrift of Liverpool in sixth place.
That does not mean Villa will be a pushover for the Toffees though. In fact, Everton could be in for a tough night’s work in the West Midlands.
Kick-off time: 18:00 BST, Thursday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 17/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 6/4
This fixture was originally scheduled to be played in January, but was postponed due to the Covid-19 outbreak at Aston Villa, meaning these two sides met in the league for the first time this season just two weeks ago, a game that Villa won 2-1.
Villa played well on that occasion and heaped more misery onto Everton at Goodison Park, something that has been a recurring theme for Ancelotti’s men this term, picking up just 19 points from a possible 51 on home turf.
Away from home it has been a completely different story for the Toffees, picking up 36 points on their travels, third only to the two Manchester clubs in that respect, and they demonstrated exactly why they have been so effective on the road as they edged out West Ham 1-0 on Sunday.
Aston Villa took the lead in their game against Manchester United at the weekend, but as we have seen so many times from the Red Devils this season, particularly away from home, they showed plenty of character to come from behind and win the game 3-1.
A bigger blow than losing the game for Villa though, will be the loss of top scorer Ollie Watkins following his late red card, though given the way this game could pan out, it may not be as big an issue as first thought.
As Ancelotti stated in his post-game interview following the West Ham match, his Everton side do not want possession of the ball. This is a perfectly acceptable way of playing football, but it does mean that Villa will have chances in this game. Perhaps not gilt-edged, but chances nonetheless, and that always leaves the door open to the possibility of a home win.
The “hot hand” fallacy
It would be very easy to make a case for an Everton win in this fixture. The Toffees have lost just three times away from home this season, winning 11. However, this is the perfect example of something known as the “hot hand” fallacy.
The “hot hand” fallacy is a cognitive social bias that a person, or team, that experience a successful outcome has a greater chance of success in further attempts.
In other words, bettors believe that because something has happened in the past, it is more likely to happen in the future, i.e. Everton win away from home.
There are arguments for and against this, but the main issue arising here is that, due to the “hot hand” fallacy, Everton’s price to win this match has been cut too short, to the extent that they no longer represent value, and in fact the value is now in backing an ASTON VILLA WIN.
In fact, against West Brom in March is the only time in 2021 that Everton have been a shorter price to win an away match than they are in this fixture.
Aston Villa have players more than capable of turning a game on its head, and a home win would hardly be a huge shock, so that is the recommendation in this fixture.
Aston Villa v Everton best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Aston Villa to win at 8/5 (General)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1315 BST (11/05/21)
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