Arsenal were held to a 2-2 draw in Portugal last week, and Jake Osgathorpe takes a look at the second leg, providing best bets ranging from 19/20 to 11/2.
Football betting tips: Europa League
2pts Both Teams to Score at 19/20 (General)
1pt Manuel Ugarte to be carded at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Pedro Goncalves to score anytime at 11/2 (Unibet)
The first leg of this tie was extremely entertaining, and a 2-2 draw was an extremely fair result based on the quality of chances created by each team (xG: SPO 2.09 - 1.94 ARS).
Both sides played attacking, front-foot football, and I suspect we will see similar at the Emirates, making BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE the main play of this preview.
This is a bet that has landed in 10 of Arsenal's 13 home league games this season, with the Gunners shipping 1.15 xGA per game over the course of the campaign.
Interestingly, Mikel Arteta's side have looked increasingly vulnerable at home of late, with their last four matches at the Emirates seeing them ship at least 1.7 xGA, and let's not forget they have faced Everton and Bournemouth in that time.
Arsenal v Sporting Lisbon (agg: 2-2)
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Home 4/11 | Draw 15/4 | Away 13/2
Sporting Lisbon have been creating an abundance of chances in recent games, and while the Portuguese league isn't at the same standard as the Premier League, the fact they have racked up 2.32 xGF per game across their last nine is impressive.
That's because Ruben Amorim's side struggled early on in the campaign, averaging just 1.76 xGF per game in their opening 15 matches, so they are peaking right now, and the way they managed to carve out opportunities in the first leg suggests we should see similar here.
Arsenal have incredible attacking talent of their own, and an excellent process, so should breach their visitors, meaning a BTTS repeat is worth backing at a shade of odds-on.
With goals on the menu we should take a look at the goalscorer markets, and one player stands out at a juicy 11/2 TO SCORE ANYTIME.
That is PEDRO GONCALVES, Sporting Lisbon's top scorer this season.
Generally deployed in midfield, the Portuguese international does get forward in what can be a very attack-minded 3-4-3 system, netting 12 times in the Primeira Liga as well as two in two Europa League contests.
Domestically, he is Sporting's xG/95 leader with 0.48, which is boosted by penalties, but we have to see that as a huge positive when backing a goalscorer..
Goncalves is his team's designated penalty taker, and if we exclude penalties, he still averages 0.29 non-pen xG/95 which is still lofty for a player who plays in a two-man midfield.
He's scored seven in 12 league and Europa League games since the restart, so is a man in form and is certainly benefitting from the upturn in Sporting's overall xG process, so he looks too big at 11/2 to leave unbacked.
A final bet of this preview comes from the card markets, where MANUEL UGARTE TO BE CARDED looks on the large side at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
The Uruguayan missed the first leg through suspension - always a good sign when backing a player to be carded - meaning if he gets a yellow card here he won't miss the first leg of the next round should his side progress.
Playing in midfield with the more attack-minded Goncalves, Ugarte does get through a lot of the so-called 'dirty work', and does find himself in the referee's notebook an awful lot because of it.
The 21-year-old has seen yellow 12 times in 30 domestic and European games this season, averaging 0.48 cards per 95 minutes, and that average would imply a price of just over odds-against, so the 5/2 looks huge here.
Arsenal v Sporting Lisbon best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Both Teams to Score at 19/20 (General)
- 1pt Manuel Ugarte to be carded at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Pedro Goncalves to score anytime at 11/2 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Sporting Lisbon (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1830 GMT (15/03/23)
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