Arsenal host Liverpool in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the clash, selecting his best bet.
Preview was written prior to the announced Covid outbreak at Liverpool
Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1pt Liverpool to win in 90 minutes at 23/10 (Betfair)
Arsenal hosting Liverpool was set to be an enthralling two-legged affair.
The Gunners were playing well and looking like a serious top four challenger, while the Reds continue to hit unprecedented levels in attack.
However, the African Cup of Nations, injuries and suspensions mean Arsenal will be without Nicolas Pepe, Mohamed Elneny, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Callum Chambers and, most importantly, Thomas Partey and Gabriel Magalhaes.
Liverpool will be missing Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Naby Keita to AFCON duty, while Alisson Becker, Joel Matip and Roberto Firmino are all doubts, as are Thiago, Takumi Minamino and Divock Origi.
This game is therefore a completely different contest to the one we hoped we would get.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Thursday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Arsenal 6/5 | Draw 5/2 | Liverpool 21/10
While reports would suggest otherwise, Arsenal were deservedly beaten by Manchester City at the weekend, conceding the better of the chances in the 2-1 defeat (xG: ARS 0.80 - 2.31 MCI).
But, on the whole they have been excellent at the Emirates this season, winning seven of 10 in the league and three of three in the Carabao Cup.
In the league, the Gunners have recorded a +0.97 xGD per game in front of their home fans, winning the xG battle in eight of 10, and that deserves to be respected.
However, the two games they were second best came against Chelsea (0.68 - 3.17) and City - two of the three best teams in the league.
Liverpool are the third of those teams, and while their XI on Thursday night won't be anywhere near full strength, they still warrant respect that the betting markets aren't showing them.
With 'second-string' XI's this season, Liverpool have already beaten Porto and AC Milan in the Champions League, while coming from 3-1 down to draw 3-3 with Leicester before winning on penalties in the last round of the Carabao Cup.
Andy Robertson is back for this game, meaning their likely line-up will be: Kelleher; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez/Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Jones, Fabinho, Henderson; Tsimikas/Gordon, Jota, Oxlade-Chamberlain.
That looks plenty strong enough to me to be very competitive against an Arsenal team missing two important pieces of it's spine - Gabriel and Partey.
With that being the case, and the fact that Arsenal haven't been able to deal with Liverpool's system and style in their last three meetings, losing the three league encounters 3-1, 3-0 and 4-0.
To see Arsenal as short as 11/10 to win this game just seems wrong and plainly disrespectful to a Liverpool squad that has decent depth.
If the Gunners did have Gabriel and Partey, I would be happy to back them at that price, but despite missing Salah and Mane, I'm happy to have a small wager on LIVERPOOL TO WIN.
A best price of 23/10 for an away win here is insulting. Yes, Klopp likes to rotate for this competition, but that's usually when there are Premier League games the following weekend.
This weekend Liverpool host Shrewsbury in the FA Cup, so more rotation is likely in that game than this, a cup semi-final.
Liverpool should cause Arsenal problems, and should be chanced to get a win at the Emirates.
Arsenal v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Liverpool to win in 90 minutes at 23/10 (Betfair)
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (04/01/21)
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