Are Aston Villa really top-four contenders?

While 12 consecutive home victories in the league is extremely impressive, only the five most recent Aston Villa’s wins at Villa Park count towards their Premier League points tally in 2023/24.

Still, 15 points from five home games is an excellent foundation to start the campaign.

Perhaps it is the manner of Villa’s victories that has given head coach Unai Emery the confidence to suggest his team could finish the season in the top four, but it is hardly an outrageous claim when the club sits in fifth place currently, just four points off the top of the table.

On Villa’s chances, Emery stated: "We are between another seven teams. They show their power consistently.

"But if we are working like that and doing this process, being demanding, being strong, of course we can progress and still keep the moment we have now in the table.”

Progress in the process

Granted, those are not the boldest of quotes possible on the matter, but even an inkling that Villa could be top-four contenders before the season was a stretch.

Process has obviously been a point of emphasis for the Spaniard. There’s been little change in their general approach all season, home or away, willing to try and impose themselves on their opponents.

It has stung Villa in certain games. Heavy away defeats to Newcastle and Liverpool showed a naivety in the lack of adaptation to certain opponents. Only the heavy part is of any concern in the circumstances, however, with both of those teams expected to be in the mix for a top-four spot.

"We have played Liverpool and Newcastle and they were better than us,” Emery said after the win over Luton at the weekend.

“When we lost against Liverpool and Newcastle, I told the players I want to reduce the distance they showed when they come here."

Surely that is the aim for this season, closing the disparity between teams at the top. And adapting to the best teams in the league might not be the best way to go about it.

After all, Villa are fairly dominating teams that are considered to be worse than them, even causing the likes of Brighton and Chelsea big problems.

Their underlying numbers are difficult to read as a result. Massive home wins and a couple of heavy away defeats somewhat skew what we are looking at, but there is no doubt that Villa are a seriously good team this season.

They’re currently eighth in expected goal difference (xGD), which doesn’t really tell any sort of story about Villa’s season.

Can Villa finish in the top four?

Villa’s start has, of course, led to these questions posed to Emery about the possibility of qualifying for the Champions League, but it’s not really a fair yardstick to hold them against.

There’s an inherent need to continually look to the future in football, even in times of joy in the present. Aston Villa probably aren’t a team capable of challenging for the top four right now. They can certainly enjoy the journey to the possibility, though.

Villa have had a relatively easy schedule to start the campaign, especially so with Nottingham Forest and Fulham upcoming and squad depth might become an issue as we head deeper into a packed campaign.

Hope springs eternal, but it’s best to listen to the man in charge, especially when Unai Emery is doing such a good job:

"There is still a lot of work to do and still a lot of things we can improve.”

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