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aob elliott

Any Other Bets: FA Cup and EFL tips for Saturday 11 January

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Thu January 09, 2025 · 16h ago

Football betting tips: FA Cup

1pt Harvey Elliott to score anytime in Liverpool vs Accrington (12:15) at 9/5 (Unibet)

1pt Harvey Elliott 1+ assist in Liverpool vs Accrington (12:15) at 5/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power, William Hill)

3pts Marc Guiu to score anytime in Chelsea vs Morecambe (15:00) at 8/11 (bet365)

1pt Tosin Adarabioyo to score anytime in Chelsea vs Morecambe (15:00) at 8/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Axel Disasi to score anytime in Chelsea vs Morecambe (15:00) at 13/2 (Sky Bet)

1.5pts Taiwo Awoniyi to score anytime in N Forest vs Luton (15:00) at 7/4 (Unibet)

1pt Haji Mnoga to be carded in Man City vs Salford (17:45) at 13/2 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Liverpool vs Accrington

"Accrington Stanley, who are they?" - "EXACTLY!"

I'm sure most readers will remember the old milk advert that is now infamous, or at the very least remember the numerous mentions and recreations of the advert in the heyday of SoccerAM.

For those who don't remember, or know what I'm talking about, the advert is below.

"Accrington Stanley - Who Are They?"

This weekend, nearly 50 years on from the advert, Liverpool and Accrington meet in the FA Cup for the first time in 69 years in what can only be described as a dream tie for the League Two side.

With the hosts understandably as short as 1/33 in places, finding value could be tricky, especially with Arne Slot likely to make plenty of changes with a Premier League midweek match round the corner, but I've been drawn to the price about HARVEY ELLIOTT TO SCORE ANYTIME.

It was surprising to some that Elliott didn't feature at all in the Carabao Cup in midweek, but that does mean he should start here and get the full 90.

He has barely played at all under Slot this season, some of that down to injury, but he's made just one start this season which came on the right wing in the Carabao Cup against Southampton, a game he scored in.

His record when starting in the calendar year is pretty impressive. In 13 starts he's scored four times, with three of those goals coming in his last seven starts, while his record paying for England's U21's in that time has been incredible from a goalscoring standpoint, netting seven in six, with nearly all of those coming from a number 8 role.

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Liverpool run up a bit of a score here given the gulf in class between the sides, so the 9/5 about a (hopefully) certain starter who has an eye for goal really does appeal.

As does his price to register 1+ ASSIST, and we'll back both separately as there is every chance both could land.

In those 13 starts for Liverpool, Elliott has provided seven assists, with the bet landing six times, and while his supporting cast may not be the likes of Mohamed Salah or Luis Diaz, it should still be good enough to put the chances Elliott provides away.

All in all, Elliott has either scored or assisted in 10 of his last 13 starts, so should give us a run for our money, should he have had plenty of milk this week.

Chelsea vs Morecambe

Yes, Chelsea have been out of sorts of late, but it would be a simply monumental shock to see them beaten at home by League Two Morecambe.

We have seen a huge upset before at Stamford Bridge, with League One Bradford famously coming from 2-0 down to win 4-2 against then-table-topping Chelsea, but that Bradford team were pushing for promotion from the third tier and in decent form, Morecambe are out of form and scrapping for their EFL lives, second bottom of the fourth tier.

The Blues will make wholesale changes here, but as we all know, their squad is very deep and full of talent, so a second-string Chelsea team could really rack up a score.

The bookies are expecting as much, with -3 handicap priced at 10/11 and -4 at 11/5, with those bets needing a four goal and a five goal home win to pay out. This is something the Blues have already done this season against lesser opponents, beating Noah 8-0 and Shamrock Rovers 5-1 in the Conference League, while bossing League Two Barrow 5-0 in the Carabao Cup.

I was tempted by the -4 handicap, but if home goals are on the menu, why not throw some darts at some players, eh?

The first two I'll take a punt on are TOSIN ADARABIOYO and AXEL DISASI TO SCORE ANYTIME. Granted, both are not a guaranteed to start, but one should at least.

We're getting 8/1 on Tosin and 13/2 on Disasi, both looking too big. The former has scored once this season already in a home rout (8-0 vs Noah) and is averaging 0.64 shots per game, while the latter has two goals to his name this term (vs Noah as well, and at Southampton) and is averaging 0.62 shots and 0.09 xG per 90.

The reason for this angle of attack is Morecambe's issues defending set-pieces this season. No team has conceded more goals (15) or more xG (12.0) from dead-ball situations this season than the Shrimps in the fourth tier. That spells serious trouble against the Blues.

I also have to back MARC GUIU TO SCORE ANYTIME given how he has been tearing it up in the Conference League for the Blues, with Morecambe even a level below those sides. He's 8/11 best price to notch, and as short as 4/11 in places.

The young Spaniard took a while to get the starting berth in Europe's tertiary competition, but has fully taken advantage now he has nailed down the number nine spot.

After coming off the bench in Chelsea's first three group games, Guiu started the last four and scored six goals in total, netting a one, a brace and a hat-trick, failing to score only once - though that wasn't for the lack of trying against Heidenheim (6 shots, 3 on target, 0.68 xG).

I expect him to lead the line here, and it would be a huge shock were he not to find the net in a big Chelsea win. He is averaging 1.03 xG per 90 this season after all. It's 3/1 for a brace and 11/1 (both bet365) for a hat-trick for those interested, but staking wise, we'll just go heavy on him to find the net once.

Christopher Nkunku is also 8/11, and should he start as well, the Frenchman should be backed confidently too, but he will be left off the staking plan as unlike Guiu I'm not sure he's a definite starter this weekend. Just watch, after that sentence Guiu will be on the bench...

Nottingham Forest vs Luton

Nottingham Forest are flying high in the Premier League, sitting third ahead of this FA Cup break, while Luton are floundering in the Championship and at serious risk of back-to-back relegation.

Both sides, then, have bigger fish to fry than this competition, so we should see back-ups vs back-ups, and put plainly, Forest's second string is much better than Luton's.

One player in that second string is TAIWO AWONIYI, and fresh off a goal on Monday night, he can add another to his tally if as expected he comes in for Chris Wood here. Forest host Liverpool in the Premier League in midweek so we should expect Nuno to rest his stars.

The Nigerian can be backed at 7/4 TO SCORE ANYTIME which looks a love price. The same bet is 3/4 in places.

Prior to Wood's sensational form, Awoniyi was the next big thing. Injuries have halted his progress, but he is a top striker well suited to Nuno Espirito Santo's system.

Think back to 22/23 and he single-handedly fired Forest to safety, plundering six goals in their last four league games, and then he started the 23/24 campaign by scoring in three straight, netting five in his first 10. His xG per 90 figure since arriving in the Premier League stands at 0.43, which suggests a blanket price of 13/10 against a Premier League team, so 7/4 against a struggling Championship team? Sign me up.

Luton have lost four straight games, seven of their last 10 and their away form is utterly atrocious. The Hatters have lost their last 10 matches on the road, conceding 27 goals in the process - against Championship opponents.

Hopefully they continue in that manner, as that really does make the price available for Awoniyi to score look simply massive. He could be on pens too.

Manchester City vs Salford

Another cracking FA Cup tie, with Manchester City taking on Manchester United... 's Class of 92 owned Salford.

Gary Neville, Paul Scholes and co. will be heading to the Etihad dreaming of an upset, and there could be no better time for one. City still aren't themselves and Salford are absolutely flying.

The Ammies have won eight of their last nine, with all eight victories coming with a clean sheet. Across that time they've allowed just 0.73 xGA per game which deserves plenty of plaudits, and does hint that they could frustrate their illustrious 'City rivals' here.

I was very tempted to take Under 3.5 goals at 6/4 but City's firepower, even if not at full tilt, is still far superior to anything Salford have faced this season.

Instead, with City having a small squad and some players in need of game time, I'm going to take the gamble that one or both of Jack Grealish and Jeremy Doku play, and back Salford player cards.

HAJI MNOGA should start right-wing back for the visitors and he's a best price of 13/2 to be carded, yet as short as 15/8 in places.

The flow of the game will more than likely be Salford sitting deep and City dominating possession and territory, meaning Mnoga will be more of a right back than a wing back, forced towards his own goal. That should mean plenty of one-on-one match-ups with either Grealish or Doku, two of the trickiest dribblers in the Premier League.

Grealish draws 3.28 fouls per 90 and Doku 2.32, so Mnoga will be in for a tough evening. The Tanzanian has averaged 2.59 fouls per 90 and already been carded five times in the league this season, while he also picked up a yellow in his sole FA Cup outing this term.

Cards are usually at a premium in the FA Cup at this stage, but referee Josh Smith is a decent enough appointment averaging 4.1 cards per game this season. In the FA Cup, Smith brandished four cards in one appearance last season, five in two the season before and a huge seven in one game in the season before that, so is quite happy to reach for his pocket.

Odds correct at 1400 GMT (09/01/25)

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