Sporting Life
Any other bets Diallo

Any Other Bets: Carabao Cup tips for Wednesday 30 October

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Wed October 30, 2024 · 4w ago

Football betting tips: Carabao Cup

1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ assists in Brighton vs Liverpool (19:30) at 9/2 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

1.5pts Amad Diallo 1+ shot on target outside box in Man Utd vs Leicester (19:45) at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

1pt Joe Willock 2+ total shots in Newcastle vs Chelsea (19:45) at 2/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Brighton vs Liverpool

With Conor Bradley out injured and Arne Slot likely to rest one or both of Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate, TRENT ALEXANDER ARNOLD could be in from the start in this game as the Reds look to continue their excellent start to the season.

That immediately piques the interest in the 1+ ASSIST market, with his price of 9/2 too good to turn down, should he be in the starting XI.

The Englishman has only one assist to his name so far in the Premier League, but he should have triple that tally according to underlying numbers, with his expected assist figure at 2.87 - an average of 0.34 per 90 which ranks fifth highest in the top flight (of players to play 400+ minutes).

He got two 'pre-assists' at the weekend against Arsenal, with his corner delivery getting a flick on before resulting in the first goal while his sumptuous through ball was squared for the second.

Trent is banging on the assist door, and in a game where Brighton could rotate, he could take advantage.

Manchester United vs Leicester

If team news was going to be difficult to decipher for this game before Erik ten Hag's sacking, it's even tougher after. Ruud van Nistelrooy is in charge for this game, with United's pursuit of Ruben Amorim ongoing.

I think AMAD DIALLO will start here, and to be honest, it's odd he hasn't started more frequently this season. He's popped off the screen whenever he's been on the pitch, while wing rivals Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho have been poor.

Anyway, against a Leicester team who will likely ring the changes and set up in a deep block at Old Trafford, Diallo's price for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET OUTSIDE THE BOX appeals.

The sample size around Diallo is small, but so far this season half (5) of his total shots (10) in the league and Europa League have come from outside the box, with three of those attempts from range testing the goalkeeper.

He has in fact registered more shots on target from outside the box than inside this season.

Newcastle vs Chelsea

These two played each other just last weekend, with Chelsea running out 2-1 winners, but you can expect this to be two completely different teams - especially the Blues, who will likely ring the changes given the strength of their squad.

Eddie Howe should tinker too, and I suspect we'll see JOE WILLOCK from the off here, with the ex-Arsenal man having started both Carabao Cup games this season, scoring in the first.

It's his shot prices that stand out though, with bet365 going 2/1 about him taking 2+ TOTAL SHOTS in the game, which looks a solid value play. The same bet is 2/5 in palces.

Since arriving at Newcastle Willock has averaged 1.73 shots per 90 across all competitions.

When looking at just home games in which the midfielder has played an hour or more, he's taken two or more shots in 14 of 21.

The price looks huge and we should get a run for our money - providing he starts...

Odds correct at 2130 GMT (29/10/24)

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